San Diego State 79, Colorado State 68 [63 possessions] In the first game of the night, the Aztecs and Rams played to a near-draw in the first half with neither team able to stop the other. Both put up PPP numbers north of 1.25. The second half was more of the same for San Diego […]

New Mexico 79, Air Force 64 [64 possessions] For the third time in three meetings, New Mexico beat Air Force convincingly. The Falcons did actually hold the lead just before that halfway mark of the first half, but the Lobos went on a 22-3 from that point and the game was never seriously in doubt. […]

San Diego State 65, Boise State 62 [62 possessions] In the first meeting between these teams, the Broncos actually had the ball with a chance to win on the final possession, and nearly did. Thomas Bropleh missed an open look from three and it didn’t miss by much. This time around, the Aztecs had the […]

I’m pleased to announce the first-ever contest on the site. This is the chance for an existing subscriber to win a lifetime subscription to the kenpom.com. If I live 50 more years and continue to run the site, and you also live 50 years, this will have a value of at least $1,000. We are […]

The news from Monday night was that the Sun Belt title game on Tuesday will be between fifth-seeded North Texas and seventh-seeded Western Kentucky, a game that had a 1-in-159 chance of occurring before the tourney started. The winner will have had no better than a 4.1% chance of winning the automatic bid, thus setting […]

This is part four of the log5 conference tournament previews. Yesterday, Arkansas State ripped the heart out of LaRon Dendy and Middle Tennessee in the Sun Belt quarterfinals, 64-61. The ninth-seeded Red Wolves appearance in the semifinals was given a 5.3% chance of happening before Sun Belt festivities started, a new standard for improbability during […]

Congrats are in order to VMI. Oh sure, the seven-seed out of the Big South hasn’t really won anything yet. But their mere appearance in their conference tournament’s championship game was given just a 7.4% chance of happening before the event got underway, and thus they have set the bar for other longshots to reach, […]

The second installment of log5-style conference tournament predictions features little in the way of surprises. To this this point, we’ve yet to see anything worse than a two-seed favored to win. The following seven conferences start their postseason festivities between tonight and Friday. Patriot League “It’s all about the home court” Feb. 29, Mar. 3, […]

For record-keeping purposes, here’s a list of the predictions for regular-season conference champions based on the simulator’s work at the end of December. Whoever gets the top seed in their conference tournament is considered the conference champ. So far, Valpo is the biggest longshot to accomplish this at 4%, but Michigan State is likely going […]

Tonight, the Big South tournament tips off with 2012 tournament play officially beginning at 7 pm ET at cozy Cameron Hall in Lexington, Virginia. That means it’s time for the annual tradition of log5-style conference tournament predictions to begin. For the uninitiated, I’ll be using Bill James’ log5 equation (it makes theoretical sense!) on the […]