“Our conference is in the worst condition officiating I’ve ever seen. When people come out and steal basketball games from our young people like that crew did, they deserve to be put in jail and not working basketball games” – Lute Olson, March 6, 1982
There’s nothing treated less objectively in college hoops than the analysis of officiating. Even the most measured individuals will claim that [conference your team is in] has the worst officials in the country. And it’s a well-known fact that [team you root for] always gets screwed on the big calls. And then you get Lute Olson, who at one point in his career advocated imprisoning referees that missed a call.
Nobody, in the media or otherwise, will claim that a particular conference has the best officials and certainly no team’s fan base revels in always getting the calls. Nobody’s ever going to say, “this was the best season for officiating that I can remember”. It’s not going to happen because while officiating may suck, people also suck at evaluating it.
If we had officiating statistics, that would be different, if only slightly. If we knew that a certain official had the highest accuracy rate in the land, we could put a missed call in context. However, that’s not the world we live in, and nobody is going to take the time to monitor whether Verne Harris likes to call the arm bar in the post, so we are left with officiating in [name of conference] sucks.
But there is enough data available to do limited analysis of officiating. With thousands of games each season and three refs working each game, one can tease out some high-level trends on officials. We’ll never be able to know which officials are the best. But we can get a sense of which ones tend to call more fouls than others.
To that end, I gathered officiating assignments for games over the past three seasons. I wanted to control for a few things which might skew the raw numbers, like…
– Which officials worked with each other.
– The day of the season. More fouls are called earlier in the season and officials that may have missed a portion of the season due to injury or other reasons will be treated more fairly by accounting for this.
– The final margin of the game. Close games tend to have more fouls called.
– Number of overtimes. More fouls are going to be called in games with more minutes.
– Fouling tendencies of the participating teams. Given the regional nature of officiating, some officials may call games in particularly foul-prone or foul-averse conferences. Both the season-long offensive and defensive foul/minute rates are used for the two participating teams.
– Because 2015 is a partial season, I’ve had to add a variable to account for that. Season-long foul rates are inflated for 2015 compared to other seasons since we don’t have the quieter part of the season in the data set yet.
Even controlling for these things, there’s still the possibility that an official just happens to work a bunch of games where there actually were many more (or fewer) fouls than the average game. Theoretically, this issue goes away with more data. Therefore, I established a minimum of 30 games for an official to be included in the study. That gives us a total of 350 officials, and many of these have worked over 100 games, with a handful pushing 200 over the period of study. The possibility of randomness greatly influencing the results exists with just 30 games, but it becomes much less of an issue at 100 games.
Games involving officials who haven’t worked 30 games are still used in the analysis. Those officials are labeled ‘inexperienced’ and are the reference points for the experienced refs.
An item of note is that scorers are notoriously sloppy in recording officials names. I’ve spent many hours correcting some of the typos I’ve found but no doubt, there are many more. And that says nothing of the same guy being referred to by different names, or the really lazy scorekeeper who just puts down the last name of each official, or the issue of Jr. and Sr. designations being used and omitted willy-nilly. I can’t swear that I got the officiating Covingtons correct in every case, and I can only assume that Bert Smith and Bret Smith have been confused at some point by the disinterested scorekeeper.
(Which brings me to an interesting discovery worth sharing. The November 24th game between Jackson State and Loyola Chicago featured a crew made up entirely one family. Tom O’Neill, Sr. officiated with his sons Rick and Thomas, which struck me as wild. On a related note, I’m guessing one or two of Thomas’s games have ended up being credited to Tom.
But even with the shoddy record keeping, there’s enough data here – over 12,000 games worth – that the conclusions are still robust.)
Regarding the results of this study, there really shouldn’t be any value judgments placed on the numbers. Whether a guy calls more or less fouls than average is just a thing. If you know who’s on the crew for your team’s next game, let this be a handy reference as to whether to whether the game might be called tight or not. If a game has 55 fouls, it’s worth referencing whether the crew was populated with foul-happy officials before accusing them of hating the game of basketball. There are games where a lot of actual fouls happen, unfortunately.
And if you happen to hit the jackpot and Ted Valentine and Roger Ayers are working together, you’ll now know there’s a high chance of getting an NBA JAM re-creation where a player could be knocked off his feet and there won’t be a whistle. To that end, here are the 20 most extreme officials in terms of fouls called per 40 minutes, relative to average.
Official Games Rating Official Games Rating ROGER AYERS 231 -3.61 LANDON BRANDES 32 +3.33 TED VALENTINE 197 -3.44 LEE MARELLI 30 +2.87 BILL JACOBSON 32 -3.02 HORACE SHIELDS 45 +2.74 GREG LANGSDORF 36 -2.92 PAUL JANSSEN 102 +2.62 QUEZ CRAWFORD 39 -2.91 JERRY HEATER 145 +2.32 BRETT NANSEL 106 -2.87 GUY PAGANO 106 +2.22 PAT BOEH 42 -2.76 ART JACKSON 38 +2.20 JOHN HAMPTON 143 -2.72 ROD MRAKOVICH 42 +2.18 KEVIN FERGUSON 82 -2.71 COURTNEY HOLMES 33 +2.02 ALAN SPAINHOUR 61 -2.50 RICK SHOULDERS 37 +1.95
Yes, it’s true. Ayers and Valentine show more discretion than anyone else in the land. It’s all the more impressive considering their nearest competition has worked many fewer games and probably won’t be as extreme once they’ve worked a few dozen more games.
Valentine might be the most famous official in the game so it may come as a surprise that he doesn’t call many fouls. You may outright deny this, or feel like it doesn’t apply to big moments in the game. Or maybe you were at a game where Valentine reffed and there were a bunch of fouls. That’s the thing, though: I’m not sure anyone really knows who has a tight or loose whistle.
Indeed, the last time Valentine was in the news, he was ejecting a fan from a February 26 game between South Carolina and Auburn. That contest had a whopping 53 fouls. Then again, Valentine’s officiating partners that night both graded out as having a quicker-than-average whistle. The bigger point is that every game is different and some games surely have a bunch of actual fouls where even the most restrained official is going to have to make some calls. Oddly, the ejected fan in this case was complaining about Valentine not calling more fouls.
Speaking of the dynamic duo of Valentine and Ayers, they’ve worked together six times in the past three seasons according to my database. Here were the results:
Date Game Fouls Expected* 11/25/12 Rhode Island at Auburn 31 48 (2OT) 12/17/12 S.C. State at Missouri 18 31 02/07/13 Missouri at Texas A&M 32 34 12/22/13 USC at Dayton 37 44 (OT) 02/19/14 Cincinnati at UCF 29 35 02/27/14 Temple at Louisville 32 37
*Based on three average officials
Obviously it’s a small sample, but in six games a crew with Valentine and Ayers have called 50 fewer fouls than would otherwise be expected. Of course, each game has its own character and it would be unfair to suggest that the South Carolina State/Missouri game truly had 13 uncalled fouls. But the long term record of these guys strongly suggests that they let some things go that most other officials don’t.
In most cases, an officiating crew won’t deviate from the normal crew by more than a couple of fouls, which is not something you’ll notice during a game. But if a crew is, in aggregate, five or six fouls different from average, that could be something worth knowing.
The complete model output is below.
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -18.90 0.92 -20.52 < 2e-16 *** ROGER_AYERS -3.61 0.40 -8.94 < 2e-16 *** TED_VALENTINE -3.44 0.43 -7.98 1.55E-15 *** BILL_JACOBSON -3.02 1.02 -2.96 0.003123 ** GREG_LANGSDORF -2.92 0.99 -2.95 0.003186 ** QUEZ_CRAWFORD -2.91 0.97 -2.99 0.00282 ** BRETT_NANSEL -2.87 0.59 -4.88 1.07E-06 *** PAT_BOEH -2.76 0.92 -3.01 0.002595 ** JOHN_HAMPTON -2.72 0.50 -5.40 6.89E-08 *** KEVIN_FERGUSON -2.71 0.66 -4.09 4.36E-05 *** ALAN_SPAINHOUR -2.50 0.77 -3.24 0.001196 ** RUBEN_RAMOS -2.46 0.75 -3.27 0.001098 ** ANTHONY_JORDAN -2.46 0.51 -4.81 1.53E-06 *** MIKE_REED -2.45 0.48 -5.12 3.08E-07 *** GARY_MAXWELL -2.34 0.46 -5.06 4.23E-07 *** FORREST_SIGLER -2.31 0.90 -2.57 0.010146 * GARRICK_SHANNON -2.30 0.79 -2.91 0.00361 ** TOMMY_SHORT -2.27 1.01 -2.25 0.024592 * PAUL_FAIA -2.22 0.50 -4.47 8.06E-06 *** ERIC_ANDERSON -2.21 1.04 -2.12 0.033717 * TOM_COURTNEY -2.18 0.72 -3.05 0.002297 ** MIKE_ALVARO -2.14 0.99 -2.17 0.030417 * LAMAR_SIMPSON -2.14 0.48 -4.46 8.17E-06 *** BRANDON_CRUZ -2.10 0.70 -2.98 0.002867 ** STEVE_DIVINE -2.09 0.94 -2.24 0.025149 * JON_CAMPBELL -2.08 0.91 -2.28 0.02282 * GENE_STERATORE -2.06 0.53 -3.88 0.000106 *** MITCHELL_ERVIN -2.06 0.70 -2.92 0.00349 ** JAMES_BARKER -2.01 0.57 -3.50 0.000472 *** KEVIN_FEHR -1.97 0.75 -2.65 0.008077 ** JAMES_DURHAM -1.96 0.75 -2.60 0.009235 ** GEDIMINAS_PETRAITIS -1.95 1.12 -1.73 0.083343 . TONY_DAWKINS -1.92 0.85 -2.27 0.023385 * LAMONT_SIMPSON -1.89 0.48 -3.95 7.72E-05 *** STEVE_MCJUNKINS -1.88 0.55 -3.44 0.000591 *** GREG_NIXON -1.82 0.49 -3.74 0.000188 *** DICK_CARTMELL -1.77 0.60 -2.93 0.00338 ** KEITH_FOGLEMAN -1.76 0.89 -1.98 0.0483 * SCOTT_BROWN -1.75 0.73 -2.40 0.01657 * MARK_COOK -1.75 0.87 -2.00 0.045712 * DARRYL_SMITH -1.73 0.63 -2.75 0.006001 ** BRIAN_OCONNELL -1.73 0.43 -4.03 5.71E-05 *** NATHAN_QUICK -1.72 0.80 -2.14 0.032469 * ANTHONY_FRANKLIN -1.63 0.68 -2.39 0.016988 * MARQUES_PETTIGREW -1.61 0.72 -2.25 0.02427 * JASON_BAKER -1.57 0.70 -2.24 0.025342 * DERON_WHITE -1.55 0.57 -2.70 0.006937 ** MIKE_SCYPHERS -1.55 0.48 -3.20 0.001358 ** JOHN_MOORE -1.53 0.87 -1.77 0.077306 . GARY_PRAGER -1.49 0.48 -3.11 0.001895 ** CHARLES_RUSSELL -1.49 0.91 -1.64 0.101767 DOUG_SHOWS -1.47 0.45 -3.29 0.001005 ** JAMES_GIRON -1.46 0.88 -1.66 0.097691 . BRIAN_SHEY -1.45 0.69 -2.10 0.035381 * ANTINIO_PETTY -1.44 0.54 -2.65 0.008005 ** KYLE_INGRAM -1.44 0.72 -2.01 0.044634 * KEN_DITTY -1.43 0.62 -2.30 0.021577 * JOE_DEROSA -1.42 0.50 -2.82 0.004788 ** LEVON_ZAKARIAN -1.42 1.06 -1.35 0.178739 TONY_CHIAZZA -1.40 0.57 -2.48 0.013213 * GERALD_WILLIAMS -1.40 0.63 -2.20 0.027534 * ROSS_CULLINS -1.40 1.09 -1.29 0.198177 ROB_KUENEMAN -1.37 0.75 -1.82 0.069621 . ED_CORBETT -1.36 0.46 -2.97 0.003016 ** TERRY_DAVIS -1.31 0.65 -2.02 0.043237 * STEVE_OLSON -1.30 0.85 -1.52 0.127533 BILL_VINOVICH -1.29 0.82 -1.58 0.115142 RICK_CRAWFORD -1.29 0.52 -2.47 0.013534 * WILLIAM_HUMES -1.29 0.69 -1.88 0.060735 . BRETT_MILES -1.28 0.92 -1.39 0.164712 ANDREW_MAIRA -1.28 0.67 -1.91 0.056746 . PAT_DRISCOLL -1.25 0.48 -2.59 0.009701 ** DAMON_WILLIAMS -1.24 1.04 -1.19 0.233621 TOM_EADES -1.17 0.46 -2.57 0.010237 * JOSEPH_PALACZ -1.16 0.88 -1.32 0.185776 JIM_HANEY -1.16 0.71 -1.65 0.100075 MIKE_KITTS -1.14 0.52 -2.21 0.027371 * MATT_POTTER -1.08 0.55 -1.97 0.048908 * DARYL_GELINAS -1.08 0.59 -1.84 0.066154 . SCOTT_JOHNSON -1.05 0.82 -1.29 0.196484 MIKE_LUCKIE -1.05 0.94 -1.11 0.265646 JOE_WILBERT -1.04 1.00 -1.04 0.298958 KEVIN_BRILL -1.01 0.55 -1.84 0.066056 . ALVIN_COX -0.98 0.76 -1.28 0.199537 JOHN_CAHILL -0.97 0.69 -1.41 0.159222 JEB_HARTNESS -0.96 0.57 -1.68 0.092408 . SEAN_CASEY -0.96 0.71 -1.36 0.17401 RICK_HARTZELL -0.96 0.47 -2.02 0.043228 * GENE_GRIMSHAW -0.95 0.84 -1.14 0.254854 AARON_SMITH -0.93 1.20 -0.78 0.437485 BYRON_JARRETT -0.92 0.67 -1.38 0.168055 LOUIE_ANDRAKAKOS -0.92 0.63 -1.47 0.142787 KIPP_KISSINGER -0.92 0.47 -1.97 0.049351 * RANDY_HEIMERMAN -0.91 0.53 -1.73 0.082915 . BRANDON_WILLIAMS -0.88 0.89 -0.98 0.325148 GARY_PUCINO -0.87 0.62 -1.41 0.157937 KURT_WALKER -0.85 0.65 -1.31 0.19049 GLENN_TUITT -0.83 0.73 -1.13 0.258125 PAUL_SZELC -0.82 0.53 -1.57 0.116352 JEFF_SMITH -0.82 0.51 -1.60 0.109706 CARL_LUCIANO -0.82 1.05 -0.78 0.437886 DELDRE_CARR -0.81 0.64 -1.27 0.203087 MIKE_IRVING -0.80 0.51 -1.56 0.119689 GERRY_POLLARD -0.78 0.46 -1.69 0.090339 . JEFF_ALBRIGHT -0.78 0.82 -0.95 0.341993 GARY_DUDA -0.76 0.95 -0.80 0.424119 KENNETH_TURNER -0.75 1.09 -0.69 0.490806 DONNIE_OLSON -0.75 1.09 -0.69 0.492691 JIM_FERRARI -0.73 1.10 -0.67 0.505761 FREDDIE_WILLIAMS -0.73 1.04 -0.70 0.48164 CRAIG_MURLEY -0.72 0.93 -0.78 0.435645 RONNIE_HERNANDEZ -0.72 0.91 -0.80 0.426486 VLADIMIR_VOYARD_TADA -0.72 0.69 -1.04 0.29779 JEFF_SPEDOSKE -0.70 0.90 -0.77 0.440213 RON_TYBURSKI -0.68 0.69 -0.98 0.325139 RYAN_MCDANIEL -0.67 0.82 -0.82 0.412921 BRENT_MEAUX -0.67 0.73 -0.91 0.361857 LEE_CASSELL -0.66 0.57 -1.16 0.244693 SCOTT_YOUNG -0.66 0.97 -0.68 0.493991 TODD_AUSTIN -0.65 0.71 -0.91 0.36129 RYAN_HOLMES -0.64 0.82 -0.78 0.434246 MARC_ELLARD -0.62 0.70 -0.89 0.374854 BART_WEGENKE -0.61 1.09 -0.56 0.573463 KC_ELY -0.61 0.71 -0.86 0.390344 SCOTT_THORNLEY -0.61 0.77 -0.79 0.430456 TED_HILLARY -0.60 1.09 -0.55 0.57978 BOB_TESTA -0.60 0.76 -0.79 0.431502 NATE_HARRIS -0.60 0.93 -0.64 0.521101 RAY_STYONS -0.59 0.52 -1.15 0.249878 TOMMY_NUNEZ -0.59 0.57 -1.03 0.301495 BILL_LAUBENSTEIN -0.57 1.08 -0.53 0.596527 DOUG_SIRMONS -0.57 0.44 -1.29 0.195975 ROBERT_RILEY -0.54 0.70 -0.78 0.43856 DON_DAILY -0.54 0.48 -1.13 0.260288 DORAN_GOTSCHALL -0.51 0.85 -0.60 0.545935 TIM_COMER -0.46 0.58 -0.80 0.423732 BRAD_FERRIE -0.44 0.67 -0.65 0.515951 JOHN_HIGGINS -0.42 0.41 -1.02 0.307629 JEFF_CLARK -0.42 0.51 -0.83 0.408222 DOUG_APRAHAMIAN -0.41 0.90 -0.46 0.644675 DON_MCALLISTER -0.39 0.84 -0.47 0.642132 TIM_CLOUGHERTY -0.38 0.50 -0.76 0.447575 GLEN_MAYBERRY -0.37 0.61 -0.61 0.542186 PAUL_HUOVINEN -0.37 0.98 -0.38 0.706977 RAY_NATILI -0.37 0.43 -0.85 0.394203 RAY_PERONE -0.37 0.49 -0.75 0.454021 SEAN_HULL -0.36 0.52 -0.70 0.481612 ED_CRENSHAW -0.35 0.84 -0.42 0.671582 BRUCE_BENEDICT -0.35 0.75 -0.47 0.639068 CHRIS_RASTATTER -0.34 0.46 -0.74 0.457988 FRANK_HARVEY -0.33 0.60 -0.56 0.575863 BRYAN_KERSEY -0.31 0.42 -0.75 0.453118 JAMES_OSTWALT -0.27 1.06 -0.26 0.794698 MIKE_MILLIONE -0.26 1.07 -0.25 0.805437 PETER_JUZENAS -0.23 0.85 -0.27 0.786637 KELLY_PFEIFER -0.23 0.61 -0.38 0.706862 JOHN_HEATLY -0.21 0.71 -0.30 0.76453 TIM_NESTOR -0.21 0.53 -0.40 0.69185 SCOTT_HARRIS -0.20 0.97 -0.21 0.83336 RUSTY_PHILLIPS -0.20 0.99 -0.20 0.839085 JB_CALDWELL -0.19 0.79 -0.25 0.805776 BYRON_EVANS -0.16 0.80 -0.20 0.840526 JIM_BRUNO -0.16 0.60 -0.27 0.788376 KELLY_SELF -0.16 0.45 -0.35 0.725851 EVON_BURROUGHS -0.15 0.62 -0.25 0.806025 STEVE_RUPPENTHAL -0.15 0.74 -0.20 0.840644 CHRIS_BEAVER -0.14 0.53 -0.26 0.796592 RICK_ONEILL -0.13 0.68 -0.19 0.849565 MARTIN_COTA -0.12 0.73 -0.17 0.866019 JEFF_WOOTEN -0.12 0.80 -0.15 0.885026 MIKE_PILLA -0.11 0.97 -0.11 0.909917 JIM_BURR -0.11 0.53 -0.20 0.843512 FRANK_SCAGLIOTTA -0.10 1.01 -0.10 0.918974 BRET_WEGENKE -0.09 1.02 -0.09 0.92576 LARRY_SCIROTTO -0.07 0.47 -0.15 0.877651 MIKE_ROBERTS -0.06 0.46 -0.14 0.892778 BRET_SMITH -0.06 0.58 -0.10 0.91862 HAYWOOD_BOSTIC -0.05 0.78 -0.07 0.945054 BRENT_HAMPTON -0.05 0.46 -0.11 0.909905 DJ_CARSTENSEN -0.04 0.52 -0.09 0.932603 GLENN_MAYBORG -0.04 0.56 -0.07 0.941715 TERRY_OGLESBY -0.04 0.45 -0.09 0.930488 STEVE_PYATT -0.04 0.64 -0.06 0.950956 ROB_RORKE -0.03 0.76 -0.03 0.973057 JEROME_HALL -0.02 0.77 -0.02 0.981287 SAMUEL_CROFT -0.00 0.96 0.00 0.999321 BRAD_FOWLER +0.02 0.90 0.02 0.985686 BARRY_MATHIS +0.02 0.81 0.03 0.979696 TONY_PADILLA +0.04 0.47 0.09 0.93054 ROB_RILEY +0.04 0.70 0.06 0.951511 BILL_EK +0.06 0.57 0.10 0.919496 DAN_DORIAN +0.06 0.88 0.07 0.941113 TOM_ONEILL +0.07 0.46 0.15 0.879798 DOUG_HOPPER +0.07 0.89 0.08 0.935399 TIM_STEWART +0.09 0.79 0.12 0.907849 RANDY_MCCALL +0.11 0.47 0.23 0.816725 HAL_LUSK +0.12 0.54 0.21 0.831195 MARK_WHITEHEAD +0.13 0.43 0.30 0.763329 LIONEL_BUTLER +0.14 0.67 0.21 0.837425 BRUCE_HICKS +0.14 0.97 0.15 0.884499 NATHAN_FARRELL +0.14 0.82 0.17 0.863238 TIM_GATTIS +0.15 0.50 0.30 0.762178 ZELTON_STEED +0.15 0.56 0.27 0.787906 BILLY_DUNLAP +0.15 0.80 0.19 0.850234 TOM_NALLY +0.15 0.71 0.22 0.829965 RICK_RANDALL +0.15 0.52 0.30 0.768088 RAY_ACOSTA +0.16 0.69 0.23 0.820988 JAMES_HICKS +0.16 0.82 0.20 0.842417 PATRICK_EVANS +0.18 0.60 0.30 0.767747 JEFF_NICHOLS +0.18 0.68 0.27 0.790368 TODD_VON_SOSSAN +0.20 0.80 0.25 0.802945 DAVE_DAVIS +0.20 0.98 0.21 0.837234 KENNETH_CLARK +0.20 0.73 0.28 0.779875 DENNIS_FLANNERY +0.21 0.77 0.28 0.779669 MIKE_EADES +0.23 0.43 0.54 0.589131 DENNIS_ALLOCCO +0.24 0.72 0.33 0.739199 ARCHIBALD_WHALEY +0.24 0.99 0.24 0.807118 JIM_SCHIPPER +0.25 0.66 0.37 0.710746 TODD_WILLIAMS +0.25 0.69 0.37 0.713949 VERNE_HARRIS +0.27 0.48 0.56 0.575929 RICK_BATSELL +0.27 0.59 0.46 0.648037 JUSTIN_VAN_DUYNE +0.29 0.77 0.37 0.708476 ROB_KRUGER +0.30 0.90 0.33 0.740644 JACYN_GOBLE +0.30 0.79 0.38 0.702598 DAN_NOWAKOWSKI +0.30 0.88 0.34 0.73112 TONY_HENDERSON +0.31 0.56 0.56 0.576535 MARC_BEASLEY +0.32 1.10 0.29 0.773286 JEREMY_MOSIER +0.33 0.80 0.41 0.679177 MIKE_GREENSTEIN +0.34 0.51 0.66 0.510455 TIM_KELLY +0.34 0.49 0.70 0.487199 RALPH_BRETZ +0.36 1.01 0.36 0.722505 TONY_GREENE +0.36 0.48 0.77 0.4435 TIM_EBERSOLE +0.38 0.69 0.56 0.57592 DUKE_EDSALL +0.38 0.59 0.65 0.514722 JAMES_GRADY +0.39 1.06 0.36 0.715792 BILL_MCCARTHY +0.41 0.49 0.85 0.396884 JOE_LINDSAY +0.43 0.49 0.87 0.382649 DONNIE_EPPLEY +0.45 0.46 0.99 0.320838 GLEN_TUITT +0.45 0.97 0.47 0.639836 FRANK_SPENCER +0.46 0.59 0.77 0.440769 GARY_TRACY +0.47 0.74 0.63 0.528297 KLAUS_ENDRISSAT +0.47 0.85 0.56 0.575434 JON_STIGLIANO +0.48 0.64 0.75 0.451596 GREG_RENNEGARBE +0.48 0.79 0.61 0.544026 BILL_COVINGTON +0.52 0.68 0.78 0.438126 LARRY_SPAULDING +0.54 0.52 1.06 0.291515 WILSON_HOLLAND +0.57 0.78 0.73 0.464944 BRENT_DUGAS +0.59 0.75 0.78 0.433859 ERIC_CURRY +0.59 0.47 1.27 0.204015 LES_JONES +0.60 0.48 1.24 0.214994 JEFF_JANOSIK +0.60 0.88 0.68 0.495097 BO_BOROSKI +0.61 0.48 1.26 0.206689 MIKE_THIBODEAUX +0.62 0.69 0.90 0.36958 MARK_SCHNUR +0.63 0.59 1.06 0.29046 ANDREW_MAROTTA +0.63 0.70 0.89 0.371358 DAVID_HALL +0.64 0.43 1.50 0.132888 MATT_OBLAS +0.66 0.86 0.77 0.443215 FRANK_RAPOSO +0.67 0.85 0.79 0.432371 MIKE_STEPHENS +0.68 0.44 1.55 0.121841 DAN_CHRISMAN +0.68 0.85 0.80 0.423035 ROD_DIXON +0.68 0.60 1.13 0.258771 BOB_ADAMS +0.69 0.71 0.97 0.332981 RON_GROOVER +0.74 0.50 1.48 0.138974 BERT_SMITH +0.76 0.46 1.66 0.097797 . MIKE_MCCLOSKEY +0.78 0.81 0.96 0.335882 JOHN_HUGHES +0.78 0.61 1.28 0.199485 WALLY_RUTECKI +0.80 0.47 1.70 0.088504 . JEFF_CAMPBELL +0.81 0.72 1.11 0.265593 TERRY_MOORE +0.85 0.78 1.09 0.274249 SIDNEY_COHEN +0.85 0.93 0.92 0.356724 SHANNON_CAIN +0.86 1.04 0.83 0.40788 JAMIE_LUCKIE +0.87 0.41 2.10 0.036035 * SEAN_CASADY +0.88 0.63 1.39 0.163805 MIKE_STUART +0.89 0.43 2.06 0.039351 * TONY_CRISP +0.90 0.70 1.29 0.198912 ANDREW_WALTON +0.92 0.69 1.32 0.185587 BRAD_GASTON +0.92 0.71 1.29 0.195542 JAMES_BREEDING +0.93 0.54 1.74 0.081734 . CJ_WASHINGTON +0.94 0.94 1.00 0.319413 KARL_HESS +0.95 0.40 2.34 0.019197 * JEFF_PLUNKETT +0.97 1.09 0.89 0.371762 WINSTON_STITH +0.99 0.70 1.42 0.155697 DARRON_GEORGE +1.00 0.57 1.76 0.078499 . CASEY_MCCLELLAN +1.01 0.87 1.16 0.246494 EARL_WALTON +1.01 0.44 2.30 0.021314 * CLYDE_OWENS +1.08 1.04 1.05 0.296002 CLARENCE_ARMSTRONG +1.09 0.49 2.23 0.025482 * KEITH_KIMBLE +1.10 0.48 2.31 0.021048 * ED_HIGHTOWER +1.10 0.75 1.46 0.144406 ROLAND_SIMMONS +1.11 0.86 1.29 0.198442 TOBY_MARTINEZ +1.11 0.69 1.62 0.106048 MATT_RUKASIN +1.13 0.98 1.15 0.2491 KEVIN_OCONNELL +1.14 0.81 1.40 0.162948 JUSTIN_PORTERFIELD +1.17 0.81 1.44 0.151047 ALFRED_SMITH +1.18 0.55 2.16 0.030957 * TERRY_WYMER +1.18 0.46 2.56 0.010504 * KB_BURDETT +1.21 0.86 1.41 0.158944 JOHN_GAFFNEY +1.22 0.44 2.75 0.005963 ** PAT_ADAMS +1.23 0.45 2.72 0.006565 ** BRUCE_BELL +1.24 0.95 1.31 0.190617 BOB_STAFFEN +1.25 0.58 2.16 0.030783 * MIKE_GIARRATANO +1.26 0.97 1.30 0.19377 DG_NELSON +1.26 0.70 1.80 0.072236 . DWAYNE_GLADDEN +1.27 0.49 2.62 0.008702 ** AJ_DESAI +1.29 0.86 1.50 0.134833 JEFF_ANDERSON +1.31 0.42 3.13 0.001754 ** MIKE_SANZERE +1.33 0.50 2.66 0.007859 ** CHUCK_JONES +1.34 0.57 2.33 0.019617 * WILLIAM_COVINGTON +1.34 0.99 1.35 0.177293 JEFF_KETCHU +1.38 0.91 1.53 0.126928 DAVID_WALKER +1.39 0.99 1.40 0.162691 KERRY_SITTON +1.40 0.70 1.99 0.047153 * JOHN_GWYNN +1.40 0.82 1.72 0.085494 . JIMMY_CASAS +1.41 0.65 2.17 0.030134 * LESLIE_JONES +1.41 0.91 1.54 0.122682 FRANKIE_BORDEAUX +1.44 0.76 1.90 0.057903 . JOSE_CARRION +1.45 0.72 2.03 0.042677 * HENRY_HOWARD +1.45 1.06 1.37 0.16932 JOHNNY_WILKINS +1.46 0.83 1.76 0.077929 . BERNARD_CLINTON +1.46 0.58 2.51 0.012219 * DOUG_GRANT +1.47 0.95 1.54 0.123484 SHAWN_LEHIGH +1.49 0.68 2.20 0.028203 * LEWIS_GARRISON +1.55 0.86 1.79 0.072932 . SCOTT_SMITH +1.57 1.07 1.47 0.140477 MIKE_EGGERS +1.59 0.62 2.55 0.010803 * DAN_ANDERSON +1.60 0.74 2.16 0.030619 * MIKE_NANCE +1.65 0.49 3.38 0.000725 *** JOHN_YORKOVICH +1.66 0.86 1.94 0.052714 . MIKE_RAPP +1.68 1.06 1.59 0.112853 STEVE_ANDERSON +1.69 1.04 1.63 0.103844 MATT_LEE +1.70 1.06 1.61 0.107251 JOHN_ST_CLAIR +1.71 0.96 1.78 0.074664 . TOM_SPITZNAGEL +1.71 0.97 1.76 0.078167 . KEVIN_MATHIS +1.74 0.57 3.04 0.002353 ** DUANE_ALLEN +1.78 0.92 1.94 0.053031 . BRIAN_DORSEY +1.79 0.42 4.28 1.92E-05 *** BRYAN_ANSLINGER +1.85 0.72 2.58 0.009835 ** JACKIE_SANDERS +1.89 0.90 2.10 0.035924 * TIM_FITZGERALD +1.90 1.08 1.76 0.077816 . JEFF_MALHAM +1.93 0.72 2.66 0.007769 ** BART_LENOX +1.95 0.82 2.37 0.017707 * RICK_SHOULDERS +1.95 0.98 1.98 0.047628 * COURTNEY_HOLMES +2.02 1.05 1.93 0.05346 . ROD_MRAKOVICH +2.18 0.92 2.35 0.018635 * ART_JACKSON +2.20 0.97 2.27 0.023218 * GUY_PAGANO +2.22 0.59 3.77 0.000167 *** JERRY_HEATER +2.32 0.50 4.65 3.39E-06 *** PAUL_JANSSEN +2.62 0.59 4.42 1.00E-05 *** HORACE_SHIELDS +2.74 0.90 3.04 0.002413 ** LEE_MARELLI +2.87 1.10 2.62 0.008918 ** LANDON_BRANDES +3.33 1.05 3.17 0.001534 ** Inexperienced NA NA NA NA Overtimes -4.02 0.32 -12.69 < 2e-16 *** Margin -0.06 0.01 -10.19 < 2e-16 *** SeasonDay -0.02 0.00 -14.93 < 2e-16 *** VFoulRate 1.07 0.03 35.19 < 2e-16 *** HFoulRate 0.99 0.03 31.76 < 2e-16 *** VOppFoulRate 0.72 0.03 21.47 < 2e-16 *** HOppFoulRate 0.70 0.03 20.41 < 2e-16 *** Season2015 -1.36 0.17 -8.15 4.03E-16 *** Overtimes:Margin 0.27 0.06 4.72 2.34E-06 *** VFoulRate:HFoulRate -0.02 0.00 -52.76 < 2e-16 ***