Author Archives: Nic Reiner

My favorite aspect of win probability models is the concept of leverage. As Ken Pomeroy wrote in 2010, Leverage measures how much is at stake on a particular possession.    I’m especially interested in how leverage functions as an unorthodox stand-in for excitement level and game tension in basketball.  Considering we now have win probability […]

[Occasional contributor Nic Renier provides a breakdown of the four remaining unbeatens and their path to this point.] Like most basketball fans, I enjoy close games. A contest featuring teams separated by one or two possessions late makes for enthralling theater. At the end of a tight game, every good decision and crucial mistake is […]

The unpredictability of the NCAA tournament often leads to Final Four teams meeting via completely divergent paths. Sometimes we talk about a team reaching the Final Four because the bracket broke in a favorable way— a one-seed was knocked out early or a team drew a Sweet 16 date with an 11 seed. Ken Pomeroy […]