Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1MW Houston 93.8 71.6 56.7 38.6 23.5 15.0 1S Alabama 97.6 69.8 52.2 35.8 23.4 13.5 2W UCLA 94.6 71.1 46.5 29.0 17.3 10.6 1E Purdue 98.3 63.4 36.7 23.5 12.7 6.3 2MW Texas 88.8 60.4 39.8 21.3 11.0 6.0 4E Tennessee 84.1 57.7 32.1 20.7 11.3 5.7 4W […]

I have previously acknowledged my appreciation for the preseason AP poll. Once the season starts, the poll becomes a clerical exercise that isn’t useful in the analytical realm, but before the games are played, humans and computers alike are trying to do the same thing: figure out which teams are the best.  Get 60-65 experts […]

Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Gonzaga 97.9 84.4 70.8 53.7 38.5 27.5 1S Arizona 97.1 76.3 47.2 29.1 18.1 8.9 1MW Kansas 96.4 68.7 44.3 27.9 14.6 6.6 1E Baylor 94.5 71.9 43.3 25.2 11.6 6.4 2E Kentucky 91.1 64.9 41.3 23.6 11.0 6.2 2MW Auburn 91.5 68.8 47.9 26.3 13.2 5.6 3S […]

Prior to last night, the last time Arkansas beat AP #1 was on February 12, 1984 against North Carolina. It was a very odd basketball game. You can find the whole thing on YouTube, although the sound and video are mismatched a bit. Here’s the box score. Anyway, let’s talk about the weird things about […]

By giving athletes a free year of eligibility last season, the NCAA made a great decision. Many teams had their seasons cancelled or severely limited by Covid-related issues. It certainly wouldn’t have been fair to take away a year of eligibility from someone when their season was only a few games, or in some cases, […]

Here are the probabilities for the NCAA tournament based on the current ratings (no injury information is taken into account)…

Not sure if I’ll keep up with this or how accurate this will be given seeding irregularities and cancellations, but this will be the home for conference tourney forecasts… (These are complete now.)

[This is the first of a potentially recurring (though probably not) series called Is It Luck or Is it Skill? A look at various accomplishments with an eye towards whether it is due to luck or skill.] I’ve been disappointed in recent seasons that even as free throw shooting has reached all-time highs, no team […]

After months of uncertainty, it’s looking like a college basketball season will exist in some form. The number of games played will be limited and some conferences may not play a non-conference slate.  However, there is a misconception promoted by the media and the highest levels of the NCAA, that without non-conference games one cannot […]

Being bored with the foul-up-3 debate a few years back, I did an exhaustive analysis on the benefits of fouling when tied late in the game. And others have wondered if there are some advantages to fouling when leading by one or two late in the game. Occasionally, you see a team accidentally try one […]