Here are the probabilities for the NCAA tournament based on the current ratings (no injury information is taken into account)…
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1W Gonzaga 99.6 91.2 77.3 60.5 46.3 34.4
1MW Illinois 96.1 67.8 52.7 34.5 22.2 10.7
1E Michigan 98.4 72.7 53.3 37.6 17.4 10.4
1S Baylor 97.5 67.2 46.6 31.5 18.0 8.2
2MW Houston 94.4 70.6 49.9 28.2 16.8 7.4
2W Iowa 91.0 70.6 49.7 19.3 11.3 6.4
2S Ohio St. 93.8 66.2 41.9 21.0 10.1 3.7
2E Alabama 95.7 58.6 37.9 17.8 5.8 2.7
5S Villanova 80.7 45.8 18.4 9.5 4.0 1.2
8MW Loyola Chicago 61.9 22.3 13.9 6.9 3.3 1.1
4S Purdue 72.6 40.1 15.7 8.0 3.3 1.0
4E Florida St. 81.2 46.3 16.8 8.4 2.3 0.9
4W Virginia 74.3 43.3 10.3 4.7 2.1 0.9
3S Arkansas 78.1 43.8 21.0 8.5 3.2 0.9
5MW Tennessee 73.9 45.3 15.4 6.7 2.8 0.8
6W USC 70.3 41.0 17.5 4.5 1.9 0.8
9S Wisconsin 56.4 20.1 10.8 5.6 2.4 0.7
5E Colorado 68.0 37.2 13.4 6.6 1.8 0.7
6MW San Diego St. 62.2 35.7 14.7 5.8 2.4 0.7
6S Texas Tech 60.5 32.8 15.4 6.2 2.3 0.6
7E Connecticut 57.4 25.3 14.3 5.8 1.6 0.6
3MW West Virginia 84.1 44.1 17.0 6.3 2.5 0.6
3W Kansas 82.4 43.9 17.5 4.1 1.6 0.6
6E BYU 63.9 36.5 16.2 6.1 1.6 0.6
3E Texas 74.8 40.5 17.5 6.5 1.6 0.6
5W Creighton 70.9 38.3 7.3 3.1 1.3 0.5
9E St. Bonaventure 53.1 15.4 7.8 3.7 0.9 0.3
4MW Oklahoma St. 73.6 37.6 10.6 4.0 1.4 0.3
8S North Carolina 43.6 12.5 6.0 2.7 1.0 0.2
10E Maryland 42.6 15.6 7.7 2.6 0.6 0.2
8E LSU 46.9 11.8 5.7 2.5 0.6 0.2
10MW Rutgers 54.6 16.2 7.6 2.5 0.9 0.2
7S Florida 55.6 19.3 8.6 2.8 0.8 0.2
9MW Georgia Tech 38.1 9.4 4.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
7W Oregon 54.4 15.6 6.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
11S Utah St. 39.5 17.1 6.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
7MW Clemson 45.4 12.2 5.2 1.5 0.5 0.10
11MW Syracuse 37.8 17.2 5.2 1.5 0.5 0.08
10S Virginia Tech 44.4 13.5 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.07
8W Oklahoma 53.6 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.06
10W VCU 45.6 11.3 4.5 0.7 0.2 0.05
11E UCLA 20.9 9.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.04
9W Missouri 46.4 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.03
12E Georgetown 32.0 11.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.03
11W Drake 18.6 7.6 2.1 0.3 0.08 0.02
13S North Texas 27.4 9.0 1.8 0.5 0.10 0.01
11E Michigan St. 15.2 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.06 0.01
12W UC Santa Barbara 29.1 10.2 0.9 0.2 0.05 0.010
12MW Oregon St. 26.1 9.4 1.4 0.3 0.06 0.008
13W Ohio 25.7 8.2 0.6 0.1 0.03 0.005
14E Abilene Christian 25.2 7.4 1.5 0.2 0.02 0.004
14S Colgate 21.9 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.04 0.004
13MW Liberty 26.4 7.7 1.0 0.2 0.04 0.004
11W Wichita St. 11.0 3.8 0.8 0.08 0.02 0.003
13E UNC Greensboro 18.8 4.7 0.6 0.1 0.010 0.001
12S Winthrop 19.3 5.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 <.001
14W Eastern Washington 17.6 3.7 0.5 0.03 0.004 <.001
15W Grand Canyon 9.0 2.5 0.6 0.04 0.005 <.001
14MW Morehead St. 15.9 2.9 0.4 0.04 0.005 <.001
15MW Cleveland St. 5.6 1.0 0.1 0.01 <.001 <.001
15S Oral Roberts 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.009 <.001 <.001
16MW Drexel 3.9 0.5 0.09 0.009 <.001 <.001
15E Iona 4.3 0.4 0.05 0.003 <.001 <.001
16S Hartford 2.5 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.001 <.001
16E Mount St. Mary's 1.2 0.09 0.007 <.001 <.001 <.001
16W Norfolk St. 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.001 <.001 <.001
16E Texas Southern 0.5 0.02 0.001 <.001 <.001 <.001
16W Appalachian St. 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1E Michigan 98.4 72.7 53.3 37.6 17.4 10.4
2E Alabama 95.7 58.6 37.9 17.8 5.8 2.7
3E Texas 74.8 40.5 17.5 6.5 1.6 0.6
4E Florida St. 81.2 46.3 16.8 8.4 2.3 0.9
5E Colorado 68.0 37.2 13.4 6.6 1.8 0.7
6E BYU 63.9 36.5 16.2 6.1 1.6 0.6
7E Connecticut 57.4 25.3 14.3 5.8 1.6 0.6
8E LSU 46.9 11.8 5.7 2.5 0.6 0.2
9E St. Bonaventure 53.1 15.4 7.8 3.7 0.9 0.3
10E Maryland 42.6 15.6 7.7 2.6 0.6 0.2
11E UCLA 20.9 9.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.04
11E Michigan St. 15.2 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.06 0.01
12E Georgetown 32.0 11.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.03
13E UNC Greensboro 18.8 4.7 0.6 0.1 0.010 0.001
14E Abilene Christian 25.2 7.4 1.5 0.2 0.02 0.004
15E Iona 4.3 0.4 0.05 0.003 <.001 <.001
16E Mount St. Mary's 1.2 0.09 0.007 <.001 <.001 <.001
16E Texas Southern 0.5 0.02 0.001 <.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1MW Illinois 96.1 67.8 52.7 34.5 22.2 10.7
2MW Houston 94.4 70.6 49.9 28.2 16.8 7.4
3MW West Virginia 84.1 44.1 17.0 6.3 2.5 0.6
4MW Oklahoma St. 73.6 37.6 10.6 4.0 1.4 0.3
5MW Tennessee 73.9 45.3 15.4 6.7 2.8 0.8
6MW San Diego St. 62.2 35.7 14.7 5.8 2.4 0.7
7MW Clemson 45.4 12.2 5.2 1.5 0.5 0.10
8MW Loyola Chicago 61.9 22.3 13.9 6.9 3.3 1.1
9MW Georgia Tech 38.1 9.4 4.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
10MW Rutgers 54.6 16.2 7.6 2.5 0.9 0.2
11MW Syracuse 37.8 17.2 5.2 1.5 0.5 0.08
12MW Oregon St. 26.1 9.4 1.4 0.3 0.06 0.008
13MW Liberty 26.4 7.7 1.0 0.2 0.04 0.004
14MW Morehead St. 15.9 2.9 0.4 0.04 0.005 <.001
15MW Cleveland St. 5.6 1.0 0.1 0.01 <.001 <.001
16MW Drexel 3.9 0.5 0.09 0.009 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1S Baylor 97.5 67.2 46.6 31.5 18.0 8.2
2S Ohio St. 93.8 66.2 41.9 21.0 10.1 3.7
3S Arkansas 78.1 43.8 21.0 8.5 3.2 0.9
4S Purdue 72.6 40.1 15.7 8.0 3.3 1.0
5S Villanova 80.7 45.8 18.4 9.5 4.0 1.2
6S Texas Tech 60.5 32.8 15.4 6.2 2.3 0.6
7S Florida 55.6 19.3 8.6 2.8 0.8 0.2
8S North Carolina 43.6 12.5 6.0 2.7 1.0 0.2
9S Wisconsin 56.4 20.1 10.8 5.6 2.4 0.7
10S Virginia Tech 44.4 13.5 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.07
11S Utah St. 39.5 17.1 6.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
12S Winthrop 19.3 5.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 <.001
13S North Texas 27.4 9.0 1.8 0.5 0.10 0.01
14S Colgate 21.9 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.04 0.004
15S Oral Roberts 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.009 <.001 <.001
16S Hartford 2.5 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.001 <.001
Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
1W Gonzaga 99.6 91.2 77.3 60.5 46.3 34.4
2W Iowa 91.0 70.6 49.7 19.3 11.3 6.4
3W Kansas 82.4 43.9 17.5 4.1 1.6 0.6
4W Virginia 74.3 43.3 10.3 4.7 2.1 0.9
5W Creighton 70.9 38.3 7.3 3.1 1.3 0.5
6W USC 70.3 41.0 17.5 4.5 1.9 0.8
7W Oregon 54.4 15.6 6.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
8W Oklahoma 53.6 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.06
9W Missouri 46.4 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.03
10W VCU 45.6 11.3 4.5 0.7 0.2 0.05
11W Drake 18.6 7.6 2.1 0.3 0.08 0.02
11W Wichita St. 11.0 3.8 0.8 0.08 0.02 0.003
12W UC Santa Barbara 29.1 10.2 0.9 0.2 0.05 0.010
13W Ohio 25.7 8.2 0.6 0.1 0.03 0.005
14W Eastern Washington 17.6 3.7 0.5 0.03 0.004 <.001
15W Grand Canyon 9.0 2.5 0.6 0.04 0.005 <.001
16W Norfolk St. 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.001 <.001 <.001
16W Appalachian St. 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.001 <.001 <.001