Monthly Archives: March 2017

There were 1,930 games between Division-I teams in February and March. Here are the wildest things that happened during the months: Biggest Upsets [Tournament games only] March 2: #305 Campbell 81, #98 UNC Asheville 79 (OT) (11.7%) The biggest upset of single-elimination basketball was the seven-seed over the two-seed in Big South quarterfinal action. But the story of this […]

Hey coaches, my offer for scheduling help is back for a second season. I can provide you a spreadsheet with a first cut of expected ratings for every team next season which will include a list of all 351 D-I teams with overall ranking, and national rankings in offense, defense, and tempo. It will be updated […]

Some say it’s too early to do this. Others say it’s too late. Someday, people will produce living, breathing projections for the following season that update with every personnel move of the offseason and nobody will think anything of it. I am not doing that yet, at least not publicly. But for now it’s time to […]

The group of 16-seeds aren’t particularly strong this season, so it’s tough to get too excited about the possibility of a one-seed losing its first game. (The best chance for it will easily be NC Central against Kansas should it happen.) But if a 16-seed is really, truly serious about beating a one-seed, it should […]

Here are the chances each team makes it to each round based on my current ratings. Go Zags? Rd2 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1W Gonzaga 98.5 83.9 60.2 45.4 29.6 20.5 1E Villanova 96.8 70.2 43.4 28.3 16.0 10.0 1S North Carolina 98.0 78.6 57.3 33.3 19.9 9.9 2S Kentucky 95.6 56.2 36.1 21.0 […]

Ivy League (conference rank: 17th) March 11-12 All games at Penn. kPOY: Steven Cook, Princeton Regular season champ: Princeton (preseason #36 / 1st Ivy, current #61) Overachiever: Penn (preseason #231, current #163) Underachiever: Dartmouth (preseason #216, current #304) The Ivy League debuts a real tournament this season and as it turns out, the league’s braintrust picked the exact worst format […]

Western Athletic Conference (conference rank: 21st) March 9-11 All games at Las Vegas. kPOY: Dewayne Russell, Grand Canyon Regular season champ: Cal State Bakersfield (preseason #129 / 1st WAC, current #110) Overachiever: Utah Valley (preseason #321, current #196) Underachiever: Chicago State (preseason #339, current #339) It was just two seasons ago that the WAC was ranked 31st among conferences. But things […]

Big West Conference (conference rank: 29th) March 9-11 All games at Anaheim, California. kPOY: Chima Moneke, UC Davis. Regular season champ: UC Irvine (preseason #120 / 2nd Big West, current #139) Overachiever: UC Davis (preseason #245, current #224) Underachiever: UC Santa Barbara (preseason #156, current #333) I’m not sure if a conference has ever face-planted as badly as the Big West did this season. […]

Atlantic 10 Conference (conference rank: 8th) March 9-12 All games at Pittsburgh, Pa. kPOY: TJ Cline, Richmond Regular season champ: Dayton (preseason #37 / 2nd American, current #34) Overachiever: George Mason (preseason #171, current #115) Underachiever: Saint Joseph’s (preseason #99, current #173) Here are the national leaders in assist percentage for players listed at 6-8 or taller (minimum 40% of team’s minutes): […]

American Athletic Conference (conference rank: 7th) March 9-12 All games at Connecticut. kPOY: Semi Ojeleye, SMU. Regular season champ: SMU (preseason #49 / 3rd American, current #12) Overachiever: SMU Underachiever: Connecticut (preseason #41, current #88) The American wasn’t a very entertaining conference. It ranked dead last among conferences in both effective field goal percentage and tempo in conference games. Between elite defenses […]