Monthly Archives: November 2011

[Update: 144 people responded. The median response was 27 minutes. Thanks to everyone that participated.] As mentioned in a post a couple of weeks ago, I’d like to do some crowdsourcing from the people that have been generous enough to purchase a subscription to this site. Figuring that those folks are better informed than the […]

The 13th annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge gets underway this evening. Based on Monday’s ratings, here are the chances of the favored team winning each game… Tuesday Michigan at Virginia (62%) Northwestern at Georgia Tech (52%) Illinois (55%) at Maryland Miami at Purdue (79%) Clemson (55%) at Iowa Duke at Ohio State (78%) Wednesday Penn State […]

Let’s take a look back at the eight tournaments for which log5 calculations were posted in this space and see how those predictions turned out. What follows is the winner of each tournament, their chances of winning it and how that ranked in the field. 76 Classic: Saint Louis 35.7% (1) Old Spice Classic: Dayton […]

Let’s conclude the look at November’s eight-team tournaments with the two that start on Thursday, providing alternative programming for football. The 76 Classic gives you three chances to judge whether Saint Louis is a legitimate at-large threat. However, unless you like a slow-tempo, defensive-minded team, you will want to keep your viewing options open while […]

Two of the tourneys not affiliated with ESPN get underway on Wednesday. And it doesn’t come as a surprise that without the benefit of big-time TV, it is easier to lure elite teams to the Bahamas than to the tundra. Let’s start with the event that uses a texting abbreviation in its name and bills […]

Action in the premier pre-season tournament starts Monday. Five of these teams are expected to be in the NCAA field. Semis Final Champ Duke 86.9 62.5 43.1 Kansas 62.2 52.4 25.4 Memphis 61.5 23.0 11.9 Georgetown 37.8 29.0 10.8 Michigan 38.5 10.8 4.5 UCLA 87.8 18.2 3.3 Tennessee 13.1 3.7 1.0 Chaminade 12.2 0.4 0.01 […]

The Charleston Classic isn’t on the level of the Puerto Rico Tip-off, and I confess I’m not looking at the event with the same anticipation. However, there’s an interesting field here, too, even if it’s somewhat less talented across the board. Here’s how log5 breaks down each participant’s chances in the event that starts today… […]

The Puerto Rico Tip-Off opens tomorrow and it’s one of the more competitive tournaments on the preseason docket. Say what you want about ESPN taking over the preseason-tournament business, but you seem to end up with compelling fields and you get every game on TV somewhere. The field in Puerto Rico doesn’t have the ratings-grabbing […]

Suppose you wanted to produce the best guess of how many points UNC freshman forward James McAdoo will score tonight. How would you do this? I suppose one could spend some time and figure out a reasonable estimate of minutes played for McAdoo and then estimate what a freshman of his stature normally produces in […]

I’ll bring this back to college hoops eventually. But first, I’ve got data to show that betting on NFL point spreads is like playing the slots in that you have no control over whether you win or lose. I know, you think you are the exception. You study the trends and wait for Donny Gridiron’s […]