Action in the premier pre-season tournament starts Monday. Five of these teams are expected to be in the NCAA field.

           Semis  Final  Champ
Duke        86.9   62.5   43.1
Kansas      62.2   52.4   25.4
Memphis     61.5   23.0   11.9
Georgetown  37.8   29.0   10.8
Michigan    38.5   10.8    4.5
UCLA        87.8   18.2    3.3
Tennessee   13.1    3.7    1.0
Chaminade   12.2    0.4    0.01

The winner of the Kansas/Georgetown game gets the winner of the rather weak UCLA/Chaminade first round matchup. A potential Belmont/Middle Tennessee game in the “mainland bracket” on Sunday might be more compelling. Thus we get the odd circumstance where Georgetown has a similar chance of winning three games than Memphis, despite being rated somewhat worse.

Michigan’s rating took a hit with their struggle against Western Illinois last night. While the 59-55 win wasn’t exactly as close as the final score looks, the Leathernecks are just a few months away from losing to Centenary so this game should provide a little concern about Michigan’s ability. (Though John Beilein’s teams have a history of playing the occasional close contest against much weaker competition.)

For the purposes of this analysis, I assumed Chaminade was the 300th best team in Division I. One could probably pin this down with a little more science, but it seems like a reasonable stab given the benefits of a home-state advantage and that the Silverswords have managed three wins in the event over the past ten seasons.

And briefly, the Paradise Jam tipped off moments ago with Drexel getting a nice soft matchup with Norfolk State in the first round. This benefit makes the Dragons a legitimate sleeper to take this event, though Marquette is a substantial favorite.

           Semis  Final  Champ
Marquette   95.1   75.5   56.9
Drexel      89.6   50.6   17.1
Virginia    79.2   42.6   14.2
Mississippi 66.0   17.9    8.9
Drake       34.0    5.8    2.0
TCU         20.8    5.3    0.7
Norfolk St. 10.4    1.5    0.1
Winthrop     4.9    0.9    0.1