Yearly Archives: 2007

Basketball Prospectus is officially up. We should have daily Monday-through-Friday content right through the championship game on April 7th, so be sure to make it a daily stop. (And if you couldn’t figure it out, there will be no further posting here.)

Moving On

As many of you noticed, I’m going to be writing somewhere else fairly soon. The good folks at Baseball Prospectus are diving into the college hoops game and generally looking to make all other college basketball coverage irrelevant, so how could I pass that up? It’s going to be a good fit for me and […]

In an effort to keep my Ripken-eqsue streak of posting at least once a month intact, I thought I would stop by the old blog for an update. Despite the dust collecting around these parts, there is plenty of stuff going on behind the scenes. John Gasaway and I will be rolling out a season […]


If you read last season’s Big 12 preview, you know that there isn’t much relationship between steals and “non-steal turnovers”, or NST’s. Here’s how that relationship looked on the offensive end for the D-I universe during the 2007 season. At one extreme, Mercer had the ball stolen a lot last season (3rd most in the […]

As part of the next generation of the Pomeroy Ratings, I’ll be removing the effect of opponents free throw shooting. In the grand scheme of things, this is a low-grade improvement and there are bigger fish to fry in improving the system. For most teams, opponents collectively shoot about what they should over the course […]

Periodically during the season, I get an e-mail from somebody that says they’d like to help out the operation here. Last week, my hard drive died and with it went a bunch of e-mails I had saved from people like that. If you’re the type who’s willing to do data-entry type work for a few […]

First order of business: Can anything be learned from the meeting on December 23rd (HD box), a 26-point Florida win? Yes and no. Oden wasn’t Oden yet, and the runaway margin likely wouldn’t have happened in Columbus. Still, there are some basic concepts to keep in mind. For starters, if Ohio State shoots 40% on […]

Hear This

A breakdown of the Final Four, looking at a not-so-random strength and weakness of each team. Ohio State Strength: Oden. If you don’t think Greg Oden is the most dominant player in the college game, you’re just not thinking. Luke Winn has documented the plus/minus data on Oden, but that’s only half the story. As […]

I know content has been, um, lame this week. I’ll break down the Final Four teams tomorrow. In the meantime, I thought I’d share the breakdown of 2-point jumper percentage vs. 3-point percentage in the tournament. So far, I’ve been able to create 42 HD boxes during the tournament. The following is the aggregated data […]

We have a pretty even field set for Atlanta, even though three of the four teams in this group defy the adage that defense wins championships. Log5 odds: Finals Champs Florida 54.0 28.5 Ohio St. 50.1 24.6 G’town 49.9 24.4 UCLA 46.0 22.4