The second installment of log5-style conference tournament predictions features little in the way of surprises. To this this point, we’ve yet to see anything worse than a two-seed favored to win. The following seven conferences start their postseason festivities between tonight and Friday.

“It’s all about the home court”
Feb. 29, Mar. 3, 7
All games at higher seed

            Semis  Final  Champ
1 Bucknell   96.7   83.5   52.1
2 Lehigh     97.0   81.0   40.0
3 American   87.4   17.8    5.5
4 Holy Cross 67.5   11.3    1.7
5 Lafayette  32.5    4.8    0.6
6 Army       12.6    0.9    0.09
7 Colgate     3.0    0.3    0.01
8 Navy        3.3    0.4    0.01

Lehigh grades out as the best team in the Patriot 8, but the built-in home court advantage for every game of the tournament gives top-seeded Bucknell enough of a push to be the favorite.

“Maine will win this someday”
Mar. 1, 3, 4, 10
First three rounds at Hartford, final game at higher seed

               Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
1 Stony Brook   100   96.2   74.4   53.1
2 Vermont       100   82.2   56.6   27.2
3 Boston U.     100   74.2   31.6   11.7
4 Albany        100   56.3   17.5    5.2
5 New Hampshire 100   43.7    7.6    1.3
7 Maine         100   17.8    6.0    1.0
6 Hartford      100   25.8    5.7    0.5
8 UMBC         57.9    2.5    0.4    0.02
9 Binghamton   42.1    1.3    0.1    0.006

Vermont’s flub against Binghamton last week cost them the one-seed which was especially painful for their chances of winning the AE tournament. The path through the 7 and 3/6 seeds is significantly more difficult than the 8/9 and 4/5 seeds.

“Home of the five-way tiebreaker”
Mar. 1-4
All games at St. Louis, MO

                Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 1 Wichita St.   100   92.7   79.7   64.3
 2 Creighton     100   81.8   55.9   18.8
 5 Northern Iowa 100   55.8   10.7    4.8
 6 Missouri St.  100   54.3   21.4    4.6
 3 Evansville    100   45.7   16.3    3.1
 4 Illinois St.  100   44.2    7.1    2.8
 7 Drake        78.3   16.7    6.2    0.9
 8 Indiana St.  70.8    6.2    2.3    0.7
 9 S. Illinois  29.2    1.1    0.2    0.03
10 Bradley      21.7    1.5    0.2    0.01

It’s true, seeds 3 through 7 finished with identical 9-9 records in conference play. And if Indiana State didn’t blow a four-point lead with three minutes to go against Creighton in its season finale, it could have been a six-way tie. There’s still a healthy 17% chance that neither Wichita State nor Creighton wins this thing and thus steals an at-large bid from somebody.

“We’re the fairest of them all”
Mar. 1, 4, 7
All games at higher seed

                Semis  Final  Champ
2 Wagner         85.5   66.4   41.4
1 Long Island    75.9   50.0   26.9
3 Robert Morris  87.8   37.1   18.6
5 Quinnipiac     53.4   23.5    8.3
4 St. Francis NY 46.6   13.5    3.0
7 Central Conn.  14.5    4.2    1.1
8 Sacred Heart   24.1    3.1    0.5
6 Monmouth       12.2    2.2    0.4

Hey, finally a conference where the one-seed isn’t the favorite. The NEC plays each game at the higher seed and re-seeds the semis for good measure. Still, Wagner is able to overcome this structure and as the league’s best team, it remains the favorite.

“Why did we invite Towson, again?”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Richmond, VA

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 2 VCU             100   89.7   65.8   38.7
 1 Drexel          100   89.8   60.2   34.0
 4 Old Dominion    100   69.9   29.7   12.3
 3 George Mason    100   53.2   16.7    6.2
 6 Georgia St.    75.9   40.4   13.7    5.8
 5 Delaware       94.3   30.0    8.1    2.0
 7 Northeastern   73.3    9.0    2.6    0.5
11 Hofstra        24.1    6.4    1.0    0.2
 8 James Madison  54.0    5.9    1.2    0.2
 9 UNC Wilmington 46.0    4.3    0.8    0.09
10 William & Mary 26.7    1.3    0.2    0.02
12 Towson          5.7    0.2    0.004  0.0001

VCU gets half of home-court advantage here with the games being played at the nearby Richmond Coliseum. That breaks what would be a virtual tie between the Rams and the streaking Dragons for top-odds honors here. By the way, the CAA has been all about defense this season – its games ranked first among conferences in steal percentage and second in block percentage.

“Not just at a neutral site – in a neutral state”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Springfield, MA

                  Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 1 Iona            100   91.3   64.3   46.7
 3 Manhattan       100   78.0   48.1   18.9
 4 Fairfield       100   75.5   29.2   17.2
 2 Loyola MD       100   78.2   39.2   13.2
 5 Rider           100   24.5    4.6    1.5
 6 Siena           100   22.0    7.2    1.2
 7 Niagara        75.6   19.3    5.2    0.8
 8 Marist         77.0    7.9    1.9    0.5
10 Canisius       24.4    2.4    0.3    0.02
 9 St. Peter's    23.0    0.8    0.07   0.006

The MAAC chances are nicely fragmented across the top four seeds providing an opportunity for a little mayhem. It’s worth mentioning that Iona averages 1.18 points per possession in a conference where the average was 1.01 in conference games. Fortunately for the rest of MAACachusetts, the Gaels’ defense has some leaks.

“Showing people how silly divisional seeding can be”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Asheville, NC

                    Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
1S Davidson          100   89.3   79.9   63.8
4S C. Of Charleston 75.3   59.7   37.3   13.3
2S Wofford           100   76.2   41.8   12.7
3S Georgia Southern 55.9   32.2    5.4    2.0
2N Elon              100   45.1    6.0    1.9
5S Furman           57.3    6.8    3.6    1.3
1N UNC Greensboro    100   26.6    8.5    1.3
3N W. Carolina      70.0   19.5    6.6    1.1
6N Chattanooga      44.1   22.8    3.2    1.1
5N Appalachian St.  24.7   13.7    5.0    0.9
4N Samford          42.7    3.9    1.8    0.6
6S The Citadel      30.0    4.3    0.8    0.07

There is no worse idea in tournament bracketing than division-based seeding. College of Charleston would be a five-seed if the SoCon seeded by conference record. But because the Socon imposes an arbitrary divsion structure on its proceedings, the Cougars are what amounts to a seven-seed. The top five seeds from the South division each have a better chance of winning this event than the top seed from the North, UNCG.