Congrats are in order to VMI. Oh sure, the seven-seed out of the Big South hasn’t really won anything yet. But their mere appearance in their conference tournament’s championship game was given just a 7.4% chance of happening before the event got underway, and thus they have set the bar for other longshots to reach, even if they can’t pull of the improbable and beat UNC Asheville for the automatic bid on Saturday.

The following three tournaments get underway Saturday.

Big Sky Conference

“Damian’s last stand”
March 3, 6, 7
First round at higher seed, remaining games at Montana

               Semis  Final  Champ
1 Montana        100   89.1   66.6
2 Weber St.      100   70.7   23.9
3 Portland St.  81.7   24.5    4.9
4 E. Washington 85.4   13.7    4.3
6 Montana St.   18.3    1.1    0.2
5 Idaho St.     14.6    0.8    0.1

Montana beat Weber State by 15 on Tuesday in the championship before the championship which earned the Griz the right to host a potential rematch next Wednesday. There’s a 63% chance of a rematch, which seems low given that the only time one of these teams lost to somebody else in the conference was when Idaho State’s Kenny McGowen hit a walk-off three to beat Weber State on January 14. I know what you’re thinking – “The Kenny McGowen that made just 33% of his three-point attempts this season?” Yes, that Kenny McGowen.

Summit League

“The revenge of Nate Wolters”
March 3-6
All games at Sioux Falls, SD

                  Semis  Final  Champ
2 South Dakota St. 86.4   71.8   52.5
1 Oral Roberts     88.3   65.6   28.9
3 Oakland          71.0   18.2    7.7
5 North Dakota St. 57.4   19.3    5.0
4 W. Illinois      42.6   11.9    2.5
7 IUPUI            13.6    6.1    2.0
6 Southern Utah    29.0    3.9    1.0
8 IPFW             11.7    3.3    0.4

South Dakota State gets half of normal home-court advantage here, but even without it, they’d have the best chance to advance out of the Summit. Oral Roberts is 17-1 in league play, yet it’s been over a month since they won a game by more than ten points. Note: The average Summit possession resulted in 1.07 points this season, tops among all conferences.

Sun Belt Conference

“You, too, can say no to divisional seeding”
March 3-6
All games at Hot Springs, AR

                   Qtrs  Semis  Final  Champ
 1 Middle Tennessee 100   85.5   71.8   46.9
 3 Denver           100   85.6   68.4   36.8
 2 Ark. Little Rock 100   60.7   17.3    5.0
 5 North Texas      100   56.0   12.8    4.1
 4 La. Lafayette    100   44.0    8.5    2.3
 8 Fla. Atlantic   57.2    9.2    4.6    1.4
 7 W. Kentucky     53.7   22.0    4.9    1.1
 6 South Alabama   62.0   10.3    4.6    1.0
10 Florida Int'l   46.3   17.3    3.5    0.7
 9 Arkansas St.    42.8    5.3    2.3    0.6
11 Troy            38.0    4.1    1.4    0.2

The Sun Belt has wisely ditched the divisional seeding format of previous seasons. Somehow, UALR beat out Denver for the two-seed. It’s season sweep of the Pioneers helped. Even so, this analysis has Denver as the heavy favorite to advance from that half of the bracket to the conference title game.