This is part four of the log5 conference tournament previews. Yesterday, Arkansas State ripped the heart out of LaRon Dendy and Middle Tennessee in the Sun Belt quarterfinals, 64-61. The ninth-seeded Red Wolves appearance in the semifinals was given a 5.3% chance of happening before Sun Belt festivities started, a new standard for improbability during tournament season. The 3, 5, 7, and 9 seeds are in the Sun Belt semis, so there’s the potential for lower chances to be realized yet.
Here’s another dump of log5’s for tournaments beginning this week. I’ll pick up the stragglers tomorrow.
Atlantic-10
“Better attended than the Pac-12 tourney!”
March 6,9-11
First round at higher seed, remaining games at Atlantic City, NJ
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 Saint Louis 100 77.6 60.0 44.1 1 Temple 100 72.4 45.1 19.9 4 St. Bonaventure 100 55.0 25.0 8.6 3 Xavier 100 55.4 16.5 7.7 5 Saint Joseph's 83.5 40.9 18.2 6.1 6 Dayton 85.8 41.5 11.9 5.4 7 La Salle 76.0 18.7 9.8 4.7 8 UMass 73.2 21.8 9.0 2.4 10 Richmond 24.0 3.7 1.4 0.5 9 Duquesne 26.8 5.8 1.8 0.3 12 Charlotte 16.5 4.2 0.9 0.2 11 G. Washington 14.2 3.1 0.3 0.07
Big East Conference
“Still tougher to win than the NCAA tournament”
March 6-10
All games at New York, NY
Rd2 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Syracuse 100 100 79.4 54.7 39.5 2 Marquette 100 100 65.6 45.4 20.1 5 Georgetown 100 81.9 54.4 24.4 15.1 3 Notre Dame 100 100 64.8 25.8 7.9 4 Cincinnati 100 100 40.1 12.1 5.6 7 Louisville 100 68.1 26.7 15.8 5.5 8 West Virginia 100 55.6 11.7 4.5 1.9 6 South Florida 100 59.4 22.9 6.8 1.5 9 Connecticut 79.6 40.2 8.6 3.3 1.4 10 Seton Hall 64.9 23.6 6.4 2.9 0.7 14 Villanova 54.0 22.9 7.3 1.7 0.3 13 Pitt 54.8 10.6 3.4 0.6 0.2 11 Rutgers 46.0 17.7 5.0 1.1 0.2 12 St. John's 45.2 7.5 2.1 0.3 0.08 15 Providence 35.1 8.3 1.4 0.4 0.06 16 DePaul 20.4 4.2 0.3 0.04 0.007
Big 12 Conference
“One last chance for the Border War”
March 7-10
All games at Kansas City, MO
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Kansas 100 93.8 72.9 54.6 2 Missouri 100 86.7 58.4 23.0 4 Baylor 100 54.5 14.9 7.3 5 Kansas St. 100 45.5 11.1 5.0 6 Texas 100 51.1 19.7 5.0 3 Iowa St. 100 48.9 18.4 4.5 7 Oklahoma St. 83.4 12.7 3.5 0.4 8 Oklahoma 55.3 3.7 0.7 0.1 9 Texas A&M 44.7 2.5 0.4 0.07 10 Texas Tech 16.6 0.6 0.04 0.001
Big West Conference
“Providing ESPN with late-night programming since the beginning of time”
March 8-10
All games at Anaheim, CA
Semis Final Champ 1 Long Beach St. 97.4 85.2 59.1 3 UC Santa Barbara 86.9 59.0 24.7 2 Cal St. Fullerton 73.4 27.9 7.8 4 Cal Poly 76.9 21.0 7.5 5 UC Riverside 23.1 2.6 0.4 6 Pacific 13.1 1.7 0.2 7 UC Irvine 26.6 2.2 0.3 8 UC Davis 2.6 0.2 0.02
Conference USA
“Feeling nostalgic for the good old days when Memphis was the prohibitive favorite?”
March 7-10
All games at Memphis
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Memphis 100 94.6 85.9 75.9 2 Southern Miss 100 69.7 39.5 8.1 3 Tulsa 100 55.7 28.2 5.0 4 UCF 100 65.4 9.0 4.3 6 Marshall 76.5 38.7 19.8 3.5 5 UAB 66.5 26.3 2.6 1.0 10 East Carolina 55.2 17.8 6.9 0.8 8 UTEP 62.1 3.9 1.6 0.6 7 Rice 44.8 12.5 4.2 0.4 12 Tulane 33.5 8.3 0.5 0.1 9 Houston 37.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 11 SMU 23.5 5.6 1.4 0.1
Great West
“Yup, these are all of the eligible teams in our conference”
March 8-10
All games at Chicago St.
Semis Final Champ 1 Utah Valley 100 64.1 42.8 4 NJIT 91.5 35.4 19.8 3 UT Pan American 100 51.9 19.8 2 North Dakota 100 48.1 17.5 5 Houston Baptist 8.5 0.5 0.1
Mid American Conference (Corrected)
“Where parity reigns”
March 5,7-10
First round at higher seed, remaining games at Cleveland, OH
Rd2 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Akron 100 100 100 67.1 36.4 3 Ohio 100 100 69.5 41.4 23.6 2 Buffalo 100 100 100 45.8 21.8 4 Kent St. 100 100 73.9 27.9 11.7 6 Bowling Green 90.8 65.0 24.1 11.2 4.9 8 W. Michigan 68.9 49.3 15.6 3.4 0.9 7 Toledo 62.6 19.8 3.7 0.9 0.2 9 Ball St. 31.1 20.8 5.6 1.0 0.2 10 Miami OH 37.4 12.3 2.4 0.6 0.2 5 E. Michigan 87.1 28.4 4.9 0.5 0.07 11 C. Michigan 9.2 2.9 0.3 0.04 0.005 12 N. Illinois 12.9 1.5 0.08 0.002 0.0001
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Corrected)
“The 30th-best conference in America five years running”
March 6-10
All games at Winston Salem, NC
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Savannah St. 100 77.0 52.7 36.1 2 Norfolk St. 100 72.2 43.4 20.0 5 N.C. Central 86.4 62.3 28.0 16.2 3 Delaware St. 100 64.5 32.2 13.0 6 Coppin St. 74.2 30.5 12.6 4.1 4 Bethune Cookman 83.8 31.5 9.0 3.5 7 N.C. A&T 69.3 22.4 9.5 2.8 9 Morgan St. 58.2 14.8 6.5 2.8 8 Hampton 41.8 8.2 3.0 1.1 10 Howard 30.7 5.4 1.3 0.2 11 Florida A&M 25.8 5.0 1.0 0.2 12 UMES 13.6 4.3 0.5 0.1 13 S.C. State 16.2 2.0 0.2 0.02
Mountain West Conference
“Our last-place team has a 2% chance of winning”
March 7-10
All games at UNLV
Semis Final Champ 2 New Mexico 90.7 49.4 38.7 3 UNLV 77.0 41.9 33.2 1 San Diego St. 71.1 41.4 11.2 4 Colorado St. 58.8 30.8 7.9 6 Wyoming 23.0 7.7 4.5 5 TCU 41.2 15.2 2.4 8 Boise St. 28.9 12.6 1.8 7 Air Force 9.3 1.0 0.3
Southland Conference
“Pat Knight put us on the map”
March 6-10
All games at Katy, TX
Semis Final Champ 1 UT Arlington 94.7 68.3 41.2 3 Lamar 77.6 49.8 26.7 2 Stephen F. Austin 80.4 38.3 17.3 5 UT San Antonio 64.7 22.6 9.6 4 McNeese St. 35.3 8.3 2.4 6 Northwestern St. 22.4 8.1 2.1 7 Sam Houston St. 19.6 3.8 0.7 8 Nicholls St. 5.3 0.7 0.06
Southwestern Athletic Conference
“Our regular-season champ didn’t win a single non-conference game in regulation”
March 7-10
All games at Garland, TX
Semis Final Champ 1 Miss. Valley St. 84.6 66.9 45.5 2 Texas Southern 79.5 59.4 30.8 3 Prairie View A&M 64.1 22.8 7.4 4 Alabama St. 51.7 14.2 5.5 5 Ark. Pine Bluff 48.3 12.7 4.8 7 Alabama A&M 20.5 9.0 2.2 6 Alcorn St. 35.9 8.8 2.0 8 Jackson St. 15.4 6.2 1.9
Western Athletic Conference
“We really should hold this thing in Hawaii”
March 8-10
All games at Las Vegas, NV
Semis Final Champ 2 New Mexico St. 77.2 58.4 37.7 1 Nevada 85.7 53.9 28.2 4 Utah St. 65.0 31.0 13.9 3 Idaho 66.4 23.2 9.9 7 Fresno St. 22.8 11.1 4.0 5 Louisiana Tech 35.0 11.9 3.8 6 Hawaii 33.6 7.4 2.1 8 San Jose St. 14.3 3.2 0.6