Monthly Archives: March 2007

Possessions estimated unless HD data available. Boston College 84, Texas Tech 75 [62 possessions]. The flex offense is right up there with the Princeton in terms of potency. But it just seems like the Eagles intentionally take off possessions defensively. I’d like to think this catches up with you eventually. Or, like, on Saturday, when […]

You’ll recall last year at this time, I went a little postal on how many experts were forecasting a Duke/UConn final, when such a game was much more of a longshot than the pundits’ unanimity suggested. The gutless wonders out there picking a Duke/UConn final make me laugh. I mean that could happen, but it’s […]

I’ve been under the weather, so I’m not in the mood to write much. Fortunately, these two regions are not very complicated. First, the South: 2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Ohio St. 98.62% 82.16% 68.80% 41.49% 21.00% 11.32% 3 Texas A&M 95.07% 70.87% 46.80% 27.35% 13.31% 6.91% 2 Memphis 98.03% 73.77% 34.47% […]

Welcome to the Bracket Breakdown, a Boeheim-free zone. Log5 analysis is treated as gospel here, but I acknowledge that it’s not the answer to all of your bracket issues. First up the Midwest Region: 2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Florida 99.72% 78.61% 56.54% 37.69% 21.07% 10.85% 2 Wisconsin 95.91% 68.27% 48.17% […]

The Bracket Breakdown featuring log5 computations will commence tomorrow with the Midwest and West regions and continue Wednesday with the East and South. (Sneak preview: there are 10 teams with at least a 2% chance of winning it all if loyal reader Kevin Picklesimer’s calculations are correct.) I always pity the folks that are required […]

Here’s the complete list of how teams with no rest fared the past two days. Overall, there was a slight underperformance. Fatigued Team Rested Team Expected Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) […]

Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out. The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team […]

Here’s a final flurry of log5 analysis dealing with tourneys that start today, except for the ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten which start tomorrow, and the WAC which started yesterday. Major ups to Kevin Haluska for providing me with the spreadsheet I was too lazy to create on my own. And thanks to everyone […]

After a 3 year stint in Denver’s mostly empty Pepsi Center, the Mountain West tourney returns to its roots on the campus of UNLV. It gets underway today with the fun-filled 8/9 exhibition. The reason the tournament moved from Vegas was partly due to complaints about the home court advantage enjoyed by the Rebels. Once […]

Hi Ken, Here is the list of the 10 teams from last season who were, according to your rankings, the most unlucky, yet still in the top 100 overall (from most to least unlucky last season): Virginia Tech Notre Dame Oregon Drexel Washington State Kansas State Georgia Tech Oklahoma State Butler Xavier Pretty amazing that […]