Here’s a final flurry of log5 analysis dealing with tourneys that start today, except for the ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten which start tomorrow, and the WAC which started yesterday. Major ups to Kevin Haluska for providing me with the spreadsheet I was too lazy to create on my own. And thanks to everyone who has submitted one of these over the past few days.
First the ACC, where seeds and byes don’t seem to matter…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UNC 100 86.0 66.0 50.8 7 Duke 90.0 69.5 45.5 17.9 5 Maryland 92.4 68.5 23.6 13.7 6 Ga. Tech 88.6 56.1 27.8 8.7 3 Va. Tech 100 41.9 15.7 3.4 2 UVa 100 27.8 10.2 1.8 4 BC 100 30.1 5.1 1.7 8 Clemson 54.5 8.2 3.2 1.2 9 Fla. St. 45.5 5.8 2.0 0.7 10 NC St. 10.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11 Wake 11.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 12 Miami 7.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
Duke gets all the breaks. It’s another conspiracy! They have a remarkably easy road from the 7-seed and get the edge for the 2nd pick despite having nearly the same rating as Maryland. Without Gerald Henderson, getting by NC State won’t be quite so easy as the chart makes it look – he’s their 2nd most frequent shooter per minute.
Now, the most wide open of the major conference tourneys…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 G'town 100 72.2 51.7 34.4 3 Pitt 100 68.2 41.2 20.3 2 L'ville 100 67.5 33.5 14.8 4 ND 100 62.1 23.7 11.6 9 Nova 65.8 21.1 11.5 5.6 6 Marq 80.5 29.4 13.8 5.1 7 WVU 66.1 24.6 9.1 3.0 5 Syracuse 54.1 21.5 6.3 2.4 12 UConn 45.9 16.4 4.3 1.5 8 DePaul 34.2 6.7 2.6 0.9 10 Prov 33.9 7.9 1.9 0.4 11 St Johns 19.5 2.4 0.4 0.1
But the byes matter here. A crappy draw for Syracuse, who would be more likely to get out of the first round were they a 6 or 7 seed. And keep an eye on Villanova, a team that both my ratings and the RPI agree is underrated. It’s a thought I’m not entirely comfortable with. And did you see the game Scottie Reynolds had last week? I didn’t either, but now it’s almost like you were there. Scoring 40 of your team’s 66 points while you were on the floor is impressive, even more so when it’s against one of the best defenses in the game. However, Scottie posted a 1.26 PPWS which isn’t off the charts efficiency. For that, read on.
Here’s the least wide open major tourney…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UCLA 100 93.2 71.1 56.8 2 Wazzou 100 71.2 38.8 11.7 5 Arizona 100 60.4 18.3 10.9 3 USC 100 61.6 34.1 10.3 4 Oregon 100 39.6 9.1 4.5 6 Stanford 100 38.4 16.9 3.7 7 Wash 76.1 25.5 9.7 1.8 8 Cal 79.4 6.4 1.4 0.4 10 ASU 23.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 9 OSU 20.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
I gave a half share of home court to the LA teams. If you want points and through-the-roof-efficiency, check out Ivan Radenovic’s line against Stanford. Scoring 37 and missing only 6 shots equates to a PPWS of 1.59. You don’t need to play D if you can do that occasionally. Problem is, nobody can do that occasionally.
It was nice of the Big Ten to invite everybody, but the first round is effectively “Exhibition Thursday”…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 OSU 100 85.1 67.2 40.7 2 Wisc 100 63.6 43.4 25.0 3 Indiana 100 60.3 23.2 10.0 7 MSU 92.7 36.0 20.8 9.9 5 Purdue 100 67.3 20.3 6.9 6 Illinois 89.0 38.7 12.6 4.7 8 Michigan 85.2 14.4 6.4 1.6 4 Iowa 100 32.7 6.0 1.2 9 Minn 14.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 10 N'westrn 7.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 11 Penn St. 11.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
If the bottom three teams stayed home, it wouldn’t alter any other team’s chance of winning it all by more than 0.8%. The chart doesn’t account for Brian Butch’s absence from Wisconsin, and that’s a big deal. He’s one of only two Badgers that used at least 20% of his team’s possessions. The offense has suffered more than the defense without Butch, and I don’t think that’s a fluke. The Badgers are now Alando Tucker and a bunch of role players.
The Big Roman Numerals…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Kansas 100 84.1 76.0 49.2 2 Tex A&M 100 91.6 69.5 36.1 3 Texas 100 75.5 24.4 7.9 9 Okla 88.9 15.6 10.4 3.2 4 K St. 100 59.1 8.6 1.7 5 TT 89.7 40.1 4.9 0.8 6 Mizzou 74.9 21.5 3.8 0.7 7 Ok. St. 59.8 5.8 1.6 0.2 10 Nebraska 40.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 11 Baylor 25.1 3.0 0.2 0.0 8 Iowa St. 11.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12 Colorado 10.3 0.9 0.0 0.0
I gave half home-court to the Oklahoma teams, if nothing else to overrate the Sooners a little more in my system. A Kansas-Texas A&M rematch has about an
18%
(Whoops. It’s more like 53%.) chance of happening. But that would only be a matchup of the RPI’s #15 and #16 teams, so maybe it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.
CUSA…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Memphis 100 96.1 92.2 87.5 3 Houston 100 63.1 36.6 3.7 2 UCF 100 60.1 29.6 2.6 5 Tulsa 94.2 59.8 4.1 2.0 6 USM 70.0 29.7 15.0 1.2 10 UTEP 71.1 32.5 14.7 1.2 9 UAB 74.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 4 Tulane 100 39.6 1.7 0.6 7 Rice 28.9 7.4 1.9 0.1 8 Marshall 25.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 11 SMU 30.0 7.2 2.2 0.1 12 ECU 5.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
CUSA is actually improved from last season, but the outcome of the conference tourney is almost pre-determined, especially with it being in Memphis. The Tigers went 16-0 in league play and won 14 by double digits, so these odds don’t seem far-fetched to me. This will be the farewell for Rice’s Morris Almond. Is there anyone in the nation that did more with less of a supporting cast?
Last team on the bubble, kiss your butt good-bye…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Nevada 100 94.9 61.3 42.5 2 NMSU 100 85.0 50.7 20.7 5 Hawaii 100 64.8 27.7 16.7 3 Fresno 100 53.9 25.8 8.7 6 Boise St 100 46.1 20.4 6.2 4 Utah St. 100 35.2 10.5 4.8 7 La. Tech 100 15.0 3.1 0.4 8 SJSU 70.3 4.3 0.5 0.1 9 Idaho 29.7 0.8 0.0 0.0
I alluded to this on Monday, but this is the tourney most likely to produce a dance-crasher. I can’t properly model the Hawaii jet-lag effect, so their chances are overstated.
But for those that think Xavier is safe as an at-large, there’s also potential for trouble in the A-10…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Xavier 100 88.2 78.5 57.5 2 UMass 100 79.5 57.3 25.4 3 G. Wash. 100 52.0 17.9 4.8 6 St. Joes 60.8 31.7 11.5 3.3 4 URI 100 52.6 7.9 2.1 5 Fordham 85.0 44.9 7.3 2.1 7 St Louis 80.2 19.1 8.5 2.0 8 Dayton 58.4 7.7 4.3 1.3 9 Char 41.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 11 Temple 39.2 16.2 4.5 1.0 10 Duquesne 19.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 12 Richmond 15.0 2.5 0.1 0.0
Finally, who’s more wack than the MAC, where the divisions mean nothing when it comes to seeding…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 2 Akron 100 91.5 61.9 47.0 3 Kent St. 100 70.6 28.9 18.8 1 Toledo 100 82.0 45.4 14.9 4 Miami 100 62.5 33.7 10.6 5 Ohio 77.5 33.5 15.9 4.1 6 W. Mich 81.7 27.5 7.5 3.7 9 Ball St. 57.2 11.4 2.7 0.3 10 Buffalo 58.1 5.6 1.1 0.3 8 E. Mich 42.8 6.7 1.3 0.1 12 BGSU 22.5 4.1 0.9 0.1 7 C. Mich 41.9 3.0 0.4 0.1 11 N. Ill 18.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Now that you’ve been properly informed, enjoy the hoops feast over the next five days.