I’ve been under the weather, so I’m not in the mood to write much. Fortunately, these two regions are not very complicated.
First, the South:
2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Ohio St. 98.62% 82.16% 68.80% 41.49% 21.00% 11.32% 3 Texas A&M 95.07% 70.87% 46.80% 27.35% 13.31% 6.91% 2 Memphis 98.03% 73.77% 34.47% 16.88% 6.59% 2.76% 6 Louisville 71.81% 23.52% 10.88% 4.33% 1.31% 0.43% 5 Tennessee 87.40% 51.42% 12.43% 3.29% 0.68% 0.15% 9 Xavier 61.50% 12.37% 6.84% 1.89% 0.41% 0.09% 10 Creighton 67.29% 20.26% 5.54% 1.68% 0.37% 0.09% 4 Virginia 89.61% 44.80% 9.40% 2.15% 0.38% 0.07% 8 BYU 38.50% 5.37% 2.36% 0.46% 0.07% 0.01% 11 Stanford 28.19% 4.89% 1.29% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01% 7 Nevada 32.71% 5.85% 0.94% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 12 LB St 12.60% 2.48% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 14 Pennsylvania 4.93% 0.72% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 13 Albany 10.39% 1.30% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16 C. Conn. 1.38% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 15 North Texas 1.97% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
This is the weakest region of the four, and just about every bracket will have Ohio State or Texas A&M. But Memphis and Louisville are legitimate darkhorse picks, especially considering Louisville’s semi-home court advantage in a 2nd round game against A&M, which isn’t accounted for here.
A while ago, I surmised that Ohio State could survive with Greg Oden on the bench better than the most pundits thought. But after doing the research, that was, um, wrong. Here’s Oden’s on/off plus/minus data for the ten most recent games that substitution data is available for.
On Off Min Michigan St. +10 -1 33:18 Michigan +17 -4 29:47 Purdue + 8 -1 21:08 Penn St. +11 -9 30:46 Penn St. +10 -2 22:47 Wisconsin + 7 -6 34:51 Michigan + 9 -5 32:38 Michigan +14 -4 27:30 Purdue +13 -2 32:28 Wisconsin +15 +2 23:01 Sum +114 -32 28:49 Oden On / 40 +15.8 Oden Off / 40 -11.5 Difference +27.3
Wow. Statistically, Ohio State is the most likely of the #1’s to go down in the first round. If I’m Central Connecticut, I go right at Oden every possession and flop when gets the ball in the post. Oden might end up with 30 points and 15 blocks with this strategy, but he almost might pick up a couple early fouls, and getting him on the bench is the only chance a big underdog has to hang with the Buckeyes.
Which is another reason why Texas A&M is a smart pick. Not that A&M would be a big underdog, but they’re an underdog against Ohio State for sure. Joseph Jones and Antanas Kavaliauskas draw fouls as well as anybody. Of course, they also pick them up in large numbers, too.
First round tidbit: Look for the Long Beach State/Tennessee game to be the fastest paced contest of the whole tourney.
Here’s the East Region:
2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1 N. Carolina 99.26% 81.43% 67.94% 48.69% 32.61% 20.90%
2 Georgetown 96.59% 81.33% 67.30% 32.43% 17.66% 9.09%
4 Texas 88.43% 55.85% 14.54% 6.11% 2.14% 0.69%
9 Mich. St. 60.71% 12.72% 7.24% 3.09% 1.10% 0.36%
3 Wash. St. 81.51% 52.09% 14.57% 3.27% 0.83% 0.19%
12 Arkansas 55.18% 24.33% 4.61% 1.52% 0.40% 0.09%
7 Boston Coll. 64.90% 13.48% 7.16% 1.44% 0.33% 0.07%
8 Marquette 39.29% 5.82% 2.70% 0.91% 0.24% 0.06%
6 Vanderbilt 71.57% 34.34% 7.68% 1.35% 0.27% 0.05%
5 USC 44.82% 17.69% 2.86% 0.83% 0.19% 0.04%
10 Texas Tech 35.10% 4.62% 1.79% 0.22% 0.03% 0.00%
13 New Mex. St. 11.57% 2.13% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
11 GW 28.43% 8.04% 0.90% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
14 Oral Roberts 18.49% 5.52% 0.52% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Belmont 3.41% 0.57% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 E. Kentucky 0.74% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
This appears to be a two-team race but I think that Texas is undervalued in my system right now. UNC has quite the minefield to negotiate to get to the regional finals, with potentially scary games against Michigan State in the 2nd round and Texas in the 3rd round. Georgetown’s path is much easier with BC or Texas Tech and then likely Washington State or Vandy. However, the Tar Heels are still the most likely champion according to log5. Even so, there’s nearly an 80% chance they won’t be cutting down the nets.
First round tidbit: Arkansas was the most bizarre at-large selection, having a sub-.500 conference record in the embarrassingly weak SEC West. But the committee set themselves up to look good by pairing them with USC.
I’ll post some tourney-wide statistical miscellany tomorrow morning.