You’ll recall last year at this time, I went a little postal on how many experts were forecasting a Duke/UConn final, when such a game was much more of a longshot than the pundits’ unanimity suggested.

The gutless wonders out there picking a Duke/UConn final make me laugh. I mean that could happen, but it’s not as likely as a lot of people are making it out to be.

Geez. Relax, man.

But looking at this years predictions, I can’t help but feel some deja vu. Here’s how the 22 experts on,, and CBS Sportsline picked the Final Four.

West: UCLA 11, Kansas 10, Virginia Tech 1
South: Texas A&M 11, Ohio St. 8, Memphis 2, Virginia 1
East: Georgetown 11, UNC 9, Texas 2
Midwest: Florida 22

88 Final Four teams picked and exactly six outside of the Trendy Seven. Look, it doesn’t take an expert to tell us that a member of the Trendy Seven is good, so can’t somebody pick a darkhorse or two? (No, not Virginia, Dennis Dodd. I mean a team that actually has a chance.) All we’ve been hearing about is how great the Pac-10 is, and yet not a single Pac-10 team in the mix, despite a couple of 3-seeds out there. How about Southern Illinois or Nevada, who finished in the AP Top 15? Heck, Wisconsin and Memphis got in as 2-seeds and have only 2 picks between them. A lot of people allegedly thought those teams were pretty good down the stretch.

But nothing burns me more than the fact that everybody picked Florida.

I can’t stress this enough, but chances are better that Florida isn’t going to Atlanta than is. Whether you believe log5 or the betting public. Or even if you believe Florida has been dogging it to this point, which they surely have to some extent.

Of course, we know the Gators are the best team in the region. We don’t need power ratings or experts to tell us that. That’s not exactly the point. The point is, it’s March Madness. And every team in the field needs at least some luck to get to the Final Four. Florida might need it less than anybody else, but they still need it.

Enjoy the games…Oh, and I’m picking Georgia Tech from the Midwest.

Yeah, crazy, I know. Sure, they could lose to UNLV. They will lose to UNLV if they play D like they did against Wake Forest. Heck, they’d lose to Nevada-Tonopah if they played D like that.

But you don’t need me to tell you that Georgia Tech isn’t the best team in the region. However, if they had UVa’s conference schedule and luck, the Jackets would be a 4-seed, and somebody might be picking them. Or maybe still just me. Whatever.

By the way, nice e-mail by Greg S. in the Wonk blog yesterday. Nobody, I mean nobody, is sticking up for Wisconsin, either. Yet the argument that their offensive slump is as much schedule-based as Butch-based is a legitimate one. Not one I necessarily buy, but legitimate. And their D should still be dominant without Butch given the team-based nature of the Ryan system. So if you want a “safer” non-Florida pick, Wisconsin isn’t bad. Neither is Maryland.

But please, fight the power. It’s more fun that way.

Finally, a parting e-mail from our log5 contributor, Mr. Picklesimer…

Hi Ken,

I just did these calculations for fun using the percentages chart I sent you…just thought I’d share.  I haven’t double-checked them, but they’d be easy enough to check again if you don’t believe any certain ones.  There certainly are some interesting ones in here:

A #1-seed has a 60.22% chance of winning it all
A #2-seed has a 22.21% chance
A #3-seed has a 8.55% chance
There’s a 93.87% chance the winner will be seeded 1-4

Teams seeded #13 or below have only a 0.171% chance of making the final four
Most likely of these teams to make final four: Davidson…by far

Winner from the East: 33.80%
From the Midwest: 19.64%
From the South: 19.49%
From the West: 27.06%

40.04% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the Sweet 16
16.47% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the Elite 8
3.12% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the final four
6.21% chance we’ll see the top 2 overall in the finals (UF vs. UNC)

Champion by major conference:
ACC: 28.01% (7 teams)
Big 12: 27.46% (4 teams)
Big 10: 16.92% (6 teams)
Big East: 11.35% (6 teams)
SEC: 9.09% (5 teams)
Pac-10: 3.83% (6 teams)

Once again, I really can’t thank you enough for all the data you provide and maintain.