March 6-9, 11. All games at Las Vegas.

All-kenpom: Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga (kPOY); Elias Harris, Gonzaga; Matthew Dellavedova, St. Mary’s; Brandon Davies, BYU: Tyler Haws, BYU.

Thankfully, the WCC is doing away with the PBA-inspired stepladder format after this season. In the meantime, it’s another season where your seed is your destiny. That doesn’t mean that Gonzaga is a guarantee here. There’s a one-in-three chance they don’t win the two games necessary to take home the tournament title. Not only is the format of the tournament uninspiring, but the Zags will have played two games in the last 19 days when they play their round of 64 game in the NCAA tournament. That situation is preferable to what the ACC or SEC champ deals with, but unless your team is really banged up, it doesn’t seem like the optimal way to prepare your team for the tournament.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Gonzaga       100   100   100  91.1  67.8
2 St. Mary's    100   100   100  76.0  25.8
3 BYU           100   100  83.6  22.8   4.0
4 Santa Clara   100   100  67.9   7.0   1.9
5 San Francisco 100  77.8  28.9   1.8   0.3
6 San Diego     100  57.3  10.4   0.8   0.04
7 Pepperdine    100  42.7   6.1   0.4   0.01
9 Loyola Mmt   54.9  13.0   2.0   0.04  0.003
8 Portland     45.1   9.2   1.2   0.02  0.001