March 6-9 at Nashville, Tenn.

All-kenpom: Kerron Johnson, Belmont (kPOY); Ian Clark, Belmont; Isaiah Canaan, Murray State; Trevor Noack, Belmont; J.J. Mann, Belmont.

Belmont dominates the all-kenpom team and not surprisingly, they dominated the conference. Well, I suppose it was a small surprise that Murray State lost six games in conference and ended up finishing with the third-best record, even despite handing Belmont one of its two losses. But because of the divisional set-up, the Racers still get the two-seed by virtue of winning the West Division. Eastern Kentucky actually finished two games better – and against a tougher conference schedule – and still end up having the second-best chance of winning despite having to play one more game than Murray to do it. Belmont’s given half of a home-court advantage here what with their campus being a ten-minute drive from the Nashville Municipal Auditorium. It appears they’ll be the biggest favorite in any conference tournament this season.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Qtrs Semis Final Champ
1 Belmont           100   100  90.8  76.6
3 E. Kentucky       100  78.8  48.3  11.5
2 Murray St.        100   100  45.2   7.8
4 Tennessee St.     100  64.5   6.7   2.7
5 Morehead St.     84.9  33.9   2.4   0.7
6 SE Missouri St.  62.1  15.0   5.0   0.5
7 E. Illinois      37.9   6.2   1.5   0.1
8 UT Martin        15.1   1.6   0.1   0.008