March 6, 9, 12. All games at higher seed.

All-kenpom: Mike Muscala, Bucknell (kPOY); Ella Ellis, Army; C.J. McCollum, Lehigh; Holden Greiner, Lehigh; Joe Willman, Bucknell.

The Patriot League format is rather favorable towards higher seeds with all games played at campus sites. The past eight tournaments have used this format and the following seeds have won: 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2. This season, there’s a legit chance that a three-seed breaks through as Lehigh finished in a tie for second with Lafayette but lost both games to the Leopards, so they’ll be forced play at Lafayette in the semis. (Lehigh will still be favored.) Bucknell is a large favorite and is led by 6-11 Mike Muscala, who’s been hanging around the national kPOY top 10 but the rest of the world refuses to acknowledge his amazingly well-rounded season because they’re a bunch of close-minded jerks who focus on points per game. And yes, C.J. McCollum makes the conference’s all kPOY despite playing just 12 games. Those 12 games were really good, though.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

             Semis Final Champ
1 Bucknell    97.9  87.4  69.8
3 Lehigh      93.4  64.1  21.1
2 Lafayette   74.9  31.0   5.4
4 Army        83.7  11.4   3.1
7 Holy Cross  25.1   3.3   0.3
5 American    16.3   1.0   0.1
6 Colgate      6.6   1.7   0.1
8 Navy         2.1   0.2   0.01