March 7-10. All games at St. Louis, Mo.

All-kenpom: Doug McDermott, Creighton (kPOY); Colt Ryan, Evansville; Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State; Cleanthony Early, Wichita State; Tyler Brown; Illinois State.

Creighton hasn’t overpowered the rest of the conference, so it’s not surprising they aren’t the odds-on favorite to emerge from Arch Madness victorious despite their regular-season title. There’s substantial bid-thieving potential here since only the Bluejays and Wichita State are in line for at-large bids if needed. Teams from the rest of the field have a collective 27 percent chance of winning the tournament. Despite losing four of its last five, Illinois State is lurking as the most likely candidate. They’ve alternated extended periods of great results and poor results, so it wouldn’t be too stunning if they find their mojo at the Scottrade Center. A completely irrelevant subplot here is whether Creighton can finish off the unprecedented (in the last decade) national title in both two-point and three-point accuracy. They have very slim leads in both categories, so they’ll need to shoot it well in St. Louis to have a chance.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 1 Creighton     100  87.6  69.2  44.8
 2 Wichita St.   100  88.5  55.6  28.3
 6 Illinois St.  100  53.2  23.2   9.4
 3 Northern Iowa 100  46.8  19.1   7.2
 4 Evansville    100  54.6  15.2   5.4
 5 Indiana St.   100  45.4  11.3   3.5
 9 Drake        59.8   8.4   3.2   0.8
10 S. Illinois  61.7   8.1   1.7   0.3
 8 Bradley      40.2   4.0   1.2   0.2
 7 Missouri St. 38.3   3.3   0.5   0.05