March 8-11. All games at Springfield, Mass.

All-kenpom: Momo Jones, Iona (kPOY); Billy Baron, Canisius; Dylon Cormier, Loyola MD; Juan’ya Green, Niagara; Derek Needham, Fairfield.

Up to this point, conference tournament brackets haven’t brought much of the crazy. But the MAAC makes up for it here. Pick any team, predict they won’t win the title, and you are very, very likely to be correct. There’s remarkable parity among the top seven teams, and fourth-seeded Iona is identified as the favorite by this method. I get why single-bid conferences trick up their bracket to give the top-seeded teams every advantage to win, but this season’s MAAC is why I prefer a true free-for-all. Folks making the trip to Springfield or tuning in on the internet should be highly entertained. Iona’s the favorite, but their chance of losing in the quarters to Canisius is better than winning it all. Figure that one out.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 4 Iona            100  55.8  35.7  21.8
 3 Loyola MD       100  62.1  36.4  18.4
 1 Niagara         100  77.1  33.7  17.6
 5 Canisius        100  44.2  26.0  14.4
 2 Rider           100  52.9  24.2  10.1
 7 Fairfield      82.3  43.6  21.3   9.5
 6 Manhattan       100  37.9  17.6   6.8
 8 Marist         70.7  19.0   4.2   1.2
10 St. Peter's    17.7   3.5   0.6   0.09
 9 Siena          29.3   3.9   0.4   0.06