March 9-12. All games at Sioux Falls, S.D.

All-kenpom: Nate Wolters, South Dakota State (kPOY); Terell Parks, Western Illinois; Taylor Braun, North Dakota State; Marshall Bjorklund, North Dakota State; TrayVonn Wright, North Dakota State.

The Summit League will invade the home of one of the most storied franchise in all of American minor-league basketball to stage its conference tourney. I’m not sure what Demetris Nichols, James Mays, and other members of the Sioux Falls Skyforce are doing this weekend, but they won’t be playing any home games. Nate Wolters and South Dakota State salvaged a disappointing non-conference slate to win the top seed in the tournament. However, log5 still likes the Bison of North Dakota State despite the fact that I’m giving the South Dakota teams a half-share of home-court advantage. It helps that woeful Kansas City somehow got the sixth-seed, giving NDSU a virtual first-round bye. Beware of Bison center Marshall Bjorklund. His surname would indicate that he has “passion for justice and belongs to the position of authority”. Indeed, making 68% of his field goal attempts would appear to confirm this. Aye, justice will be served and authority will be granted.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                  Semis Final Champ
3 North Dakota St. 96.0  76.5  49.6
1 South Dakota St. 96.2  76.0  37.0
2 W. Illinois      68.7  18.1   7.0
4 Oakland          65.6  17.6   4.4
7 South Dakota     31.3   4.7   1.1
5 Fort Wayne       34.4   5.8   0.9
6 Kansas City       4.0   0.6   0.05
8 IUPUI             3.8   0.5   0.02