March 11-16. All games at Norfolk, Va.

All-kenpom: Stanton Kidd, N.C. Central (kPOY); Jeremy Ingram, N.C. Central; Rashad Hassan, Savannah State; Adrien Coleman, Bethune Cookman; Dewayne Jackson; Morgan State.

Norfolk State went 16-0 in regular-season play, one of three teams in the country able to finish its conference slate with a zero in the loss column. The Spartans’ run included just one win of more than 11 points. Whether that’s an example of good fortune or extreme consistency I’ll leave as an exercise to the reader. What was good fortune was that, for some reason, NSU didn’t have to play N.C. Central during the regular season. This created the possibility of the conference producing two regular-season unbeatens, which was thwarted when Savannah State knocked off NCCU in mid-February. That would turn out to be the lone Eagles’ loss. They’re the favorite despite the half-share of home-court I’m giving Norfolk State (and Hampton, if you care).

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
 2  N.C. Central   100  70.4  54.1  34.5
 1  Norfolk St.    100  76.2  42.7  22.2
 5  Morgan St.    90.7  53.4  28.6  13.8
 3  Hampton        100  70.5  23.9   9.6
 4  Savannah St.  90.4  44.1  21.4   9.3
 7  N.C. A&T      82.1  27.8  16.2   7.2
 8  Beth. Cookman 61.4  16.5   5.4   1.6
 6  Delaware St.  67.6  23.1   4.6   1.2
 9  Coppin St.    38.6   7.3   1.7   0.4
11  Howard        32.4   6.4   0.7   0.1
10  Florida A&M   17.9   1.8   0.5   0.09
12  S.C. State     9.3   1.4   0.2   0.02
13  UMES           9.6   1.1   0.1   0.01