March 9-11. All games at Richmond, Va.

All-kenpom: Jerrelle Benimon, Towson (kPOY); Devon Saddler, Delaware; Sherrod Wright, George Mason; R.J. Hunter, Georgia State; Damion Lee, Drexel.

Realignment has relegated the CAA to the dustbin of history and their conference tourney has gone with it. Even the old moniker for the event, “Jammin’ on the James” has been co-opted by some sort of dance-a-thon.  Between defections and APR violators, only seven teams will participate this season, making the event approximately as sexy as the Great West tournament. But hey, there is an automatic bid at stake, so take that, Great West! And with seven evenly-matched teams involved, there figures to be some late-game drama is a few of the six games in this event.

Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                Semis Final Champ
1 Northeastern    100  44.9  24.5
2 Delaware       82.5  47.5  22.6
4 George Mason   55.6  32.0  19.7
5 Drexel         44.4  23.1  13.0
3 James Madison  56.2  28.7  12.3
6 William & Mary 43.8  19.8   7.3
7 Hofstra        17.5   3.9   0.6