Now that every school (except two Ivy Leaguers) has had a chance to honor their seniors, I thought I would recognize five seniors that made a difference during their career. This got me to thinking, why isn’t there some award for the best seniors in the nation? With so many people wringing their hands over the recent increase in early departures, it only seems logical that someone produce an all-senior team.
Here’s my list of top seniors – with some qualifications. First, I’m doing this to spotlight the career progression of each player, so I decided to eliminate transfers from consideration (sorry John Lucas, Lawrence Roberts, and Danny Granger). Second, I needed detailed player and team stats from all four years to do this analysis, and my lazy research department was unable to find them for Wayne Simien and Salim Stoudamire.
So the result is five players that may not be the best seniors in the nation, but they left their mark on the game by playing four years at one institution.
Here is an explanation of each column used below:
Off. Rtg. – Developed by the omniscient Dean Oliver, an individual’s offensive rating attempts to measure a player’s offensive contribution to his team’s offensive efficiency. Producing a lot of points without using a lot of possesions will generate a high offensive rating. Points produced is measured by scoring them directly, dishing assists, and grabbing offensive rebounds. Kudos to Ryan for providing the inspiration that the complex calculations could be made by mere mortals [Update: Additional thanks to Ryan for correcting my initial math on these figures.]
%Poss – The percentage of his team’s possession that a player uses while he is on the floor. Made shots, turnovers, and missed shots rebounded by the defense are the main examples of how a player uses possessions. Considering there are five players on the court, Average Joe will score 20% in this column. Players with less than 20% in this category are typically role players. The more possessions a player uses, the harder it is to have a high offensive rating. A player with a 120 offensive rating while using 30% of his team’s possessions is more valuable than one with a 120 (or even 125) rating with 15% possession usage. It’s rare for a player on a decent team to get over 30% in this category. For reference, Michael Jordan in his early years with the Bulls was around 35%, but as talent filled in around him, he settled in at around 30% on the championship teams.
%Shots – The percentage of his team’s shots that a player takes while he is in the game. Again, 20% is the average figure for this stat.
%Min – The percentage of possible minutes a player plays. Is some cases this is artificially low due to injuries (Coppenrath’s junior season).
PPG,RPG,APG – The standard media stats for those of you that insist on living in the mesozoic era.
TmOE – The team’s offensive efficiency. Points scored per possession times 100.
TmDE – The team’s defensive efficiency. Points allowed per possession times 100.
One more concept I’d like to propose is that of the "sophomore jump." We hear about the sophomore jinx a lot, but the average college player improves most from this freshman to this sophomore season. Keep that in mind as you look at these players’ careers.
Oh yeah, all data is before last weekend’s play.
Chris Thomas, Notre Dame
Off Yr Rtg %Poss %Shots %Min PPG APG TmOE TmDE W-L Season ended... Sr 101 25.4 24.6 93.0 14.1 6.5 106 100 17-10 Jr 111 28.4 31.4 95.7 19.7 4.7 110 105 19-13 NIT Quarterfinals So 107 29.1 28.1 90.7 18.7 6.9 110 99 24-10 NCAA Sweet 16 Fr 116 22.9 21.6 93.7 15.6 7.6 112 97 22-11 NCAA 2nd Round
Chris Thomas has played as much college basketball over this career as any of this year’s senior crop, having played over 90% of the possible minutes each season. Thomas was picked by many publications as the freshman of the year in 2002. He showed steady improvement through his junior season. But his senior year has been a disappointment, with his share of the offense decreasing. He’s been less involved in the offense out of necessity – his shooting percentage has hovered around the 35% mark all season – down from 40% last year. His turnovers are way up after his stellar junior season. His own decrease in production has been mirrored by his team.
Taylor Coppenrath, Vermont
Off Yr Rtg %Poss %Shots %Min PPG RPG TmOE TmDE W-L Season ended... Sr 127 30.9 31.3 87.0 24.7 8.9 111 95 21-6 Jr 117 30.9 32.6 70.2 24.1 7.2 102 97 22-9 NCAA 1st Round So 114 28.8 32.5 75.1 20.1 6.2 104 96 21-12 NCAA 1st Round Fr 122 22.7 22.1 85.4 16.6 7.0 111 100 21-8 AE Semifinals
Coppenrath has come through with his best season in his senior year, simply dominating his America East competitors. He’s shown steady improvement every year, with the exception of his sophomore campaign. But that was the only season in which he didn’t play with do-it-all point guard TJ Sorrentine. He won’t get consideration for player of the year, but if you believe in an MVP-type concept, no player is more valuable to his team than this guy. He’s taken his game to the next level this season, and that is reflected in an increase in free throw attempts. He’s third in the nation in FTs made. Notice his offensive rating is approaching 130, while his team is 111. There’s a lot more room for Coppenrath to be selfish, and if he gets the right match-up I pity Vermont’s first-round NCAA opponent.
Hakim Warrick, Syracuse
Year Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG RPG TmOE TmDE W-L Season ended…
Sr. 122 25.3 24.9 93.3 21.1 8.3 114 97 24-6
Jr. 112 27.5 25.6 92.9 19.8 8.6 109 101 23-8 NCAA Sweet 16
So. 111 22.4 20.8 81.6 14.8 8.5 112 98 30-5 National Champions
Fr. 102 18.9 18.5 42.1 6.1 4.8 103 95 23-13 NIT 4th place
Warrick was a role player his freshman year, but became an indispensable offensive and defensive force on the national championship team his sophomore year. In his junior season, he picked up the slack that Carmelo Anthony left behind. He has shown a similar leap his senior season, although it’s interesting that his role in the offense has decreased slightly from his junior year. If I am an NBA guy, I would love the constant progression Warrick has made.
Ronny Turiaf, Gonzaga
Year Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG RPG TmOE TmDE W-L Sason ended...
Sr. 118 25.7 24.3 78.2 16.6 9.3 118 104 23-4
Jr. 115 27.8 25.4 66.7 15.5 6.4 119 97 28-3 NCAA 2nd Round
So. 120 28.7 26.1 60.5 15.6 6.2 113 101 24-9 NCAA 2nd Round
Fr. 107 19.7 15.3 46.9 7.3 5.0 115 94 29-4 NCAA 1st Round
Turiaf exemplifies the sophomore jump concept, improving greatly over this freshman season and earning more playing time even though there wasn’t much change in the ‘Zags frontcourt personnel between those two seasons. Turiaf has maintained that high level of play, although he hasn’t been spectacular. Some of his role in the offense this season has been taken by the sophomore jump of Adam Morrison.
Eddie Basden, Charlotte
Year Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG RPG TmOE TmDE W-L Season ended…
Sr. 118 21.9 20.3 88.5 15.6 8.5 112 101 22-5
Jr. 116 19.5 15.6 69.4 10.4 6.4 110 100 21-9 NCAA 1st Round
So. 107 17.2 12.2 62.6 6.3 6.9 101 103 13-16 CUSA 1st Round
Fr. 100 16.2 11.8 47.0 4.3 4.3 109 102 18-12 NCAA 1st Round
Basden has never been the go-to guy for Charlotte, and while having impressive numbers this year he is best known around CUSA for his defensive work. But Basden has shown a steady offensive progression – each year he has taken more of a role in the offense, and each year he has been more effective. Despite the fact that he’s taken roughly 25% more shots relative to his teammates, his shooting percentage has not dropped much from last season (53% to 50%).