Back in November, I played around with how the national leaders in various statistics accumulated wins and losses during the 2004 season. One of the statistics that correlated best with winning was field goal percentage difference. You shoot better than your opponents, you win games. It’s not a revelation that will rock the foundation of basketball, but it’s something worth investigating at the early part of March.
All other things being equal – namely turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws – the team that shoots better will usually win (the exceptions occuring when three point shooting mucks this up). And those things often are more equal in March than at other times of the year.
So on the stats page, field goal % difference has been posted for all 330 D1 teams. The stat is simply offensive FG% minus defensive FG%.
Some observations…
The highest ranked losing team on the list is #32 Colorado State.
Georgia Tech is at #19. Despite the fact that they have repeatedly betrayed me this season, I stand firm that they will not be eliminated easily from both the ACC or NCAA tournaments.
Don’t underestimate #6 Texas A&M as a sleeper in the Big XII Tournament. Antoine Wright has woken up from a deep slumber and strung together four impressive games in a row.
And finally, if Rashad McCants doesn’t return to UNC, #15 Illinois’ biggest test the rest of the season may be against #20 Michigan State in the Big Ten tourney. The Spartans have been flying under the radar the last few weeks, playing a quiet second fiddle in their own conference.