So I’m about to announce the at-large field for this year’s tourney. The real committee can ignore Sunday’s games, so why can’t I ignore games starting on Tuesday?
Naturally, I’m sure I’ll get a few wrong. But one thing I won’t be wrong about is this – New Mexico has no shot at an at-large. Yeah, Ritchie McKay has told anyone that will listen that Danny Granger was out for three of their six losses, and this has been trumpeted religiously by various media outlets. But who have they beat with him? Utah and that’s it. You can’t really excuse a double digit loss at BYU, regardless of Granger being out – and the Lobos have only played four games against the top 100, losing three. This team needs to win the MWC tourney – and I have a funny feeling they will, costing one of the teams below an at-large.
Another thing is that it’s actually impossible to separate the teams in the MAC. On Selection Sunday, I am fully prepared to hear Jim Nantz announce that the 11 seed in the Syracuse region is "Buffalakrokentiami." If we were picking the 34 best at-larges, then none of the seven-loss MAC teams would get in. But we are picking the 34 at-larges the way they look in the RPI. So that means the MAC gets three in. And as it is, Kent State gets rewarded for the #22 out-of-conference SOS, Buffalo gets in for having no bad losses, and Miami gets in with the regular-season title.
The number of at-large bids for each conference is in parentheses. As an extra-special feature, my picks to win each of the upcoming conference tourneys are in brackets.
ACC (4) – [UNC], Wake, Duke, Ga. Tech, Maryland
Pac 10 (3) – Arizona, Washington, [UCLA], Stanford
Big East (6) – [UConn], BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia
Big XII (5) – Oklahoma, Kansas, [Oklahoma State], Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State
Big Ten (4) – [Illinois], Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana
SEC (4) – Kentucky, [LSU], Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama
WCC (1) – Saint Mary’s
WAC (1) – [Nevada], UTEP
CUSA (3) – [Louisville], Cincinnati, Charlotte, DePaul
MAC (2) – Miami, [Buffalo], Kent State
MVC (1) – Southern Illinois
Indiana needs a win over Minnesota in the Big Ten quarters, or they are out. Other teams still playing that need to do work, and also are hoping against any New Mexico-type party crashers: UTEP, DePaul, Kent State, West Virginia, Maryland.
UTEP – Season is a copy of last season. Great record, but no signature non-conference wins, and a road win against WAC champ Nevada. Just like last season, they should be in with a WAC championship appearance.
DePaul – Needs at least one and maybe two wins in CUSA tourney with only one top 200 road win on the resume. Good news: they will be favored in those tournament games against Tulane and UAB.
West Virginia – Needs a win in first round of Big East tourney. This is last year’s Richmond. Their wins at LSU and at NC State cover a lot of conference-play sins.
Maryland – Has the best road win of any bubble team (at Duke). The thing holding them back is an awful finish. Probably in with a first round win against nemesis Clemson.
Kent State – Needs a win against Ohio on Saturday in the MAC quarters to be the third team from the MAC.