Yearly Archives: 2007

Welcome to the Bracket Breakdown, a Boeheim-free zone. Log5 analysis is treated as gospel here, but I acknowledge that it’s not the answer to all of your bracket issues. First up the Midwest Region: 2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Florida 99.72% 78.61% 56.54% 37.69% 21.07% 10.85% 2 Wisconsin 95.91% 68.27% 48.17% […]

The Bracket Breakdown featuring log5 computations will commence tomorrow with the Midwest and West regions and continue Wednesday with the East and South. (Sneak preview: there are 10 teams with at least a 2% chance of winning it all if loyal reader Kevin Picklesimer’s calculations are correct.) I always pity the folks that are required […]

Here’s the complete list of how teams with no rest fared the past two days. Overall, there was a slight underperformance. Fatigued Team Rested Team Expected Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) […]

Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out. The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team […]

Here’s a final flurry of log5 analysis dealing with tourneys that start today, except for the ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten which start tomorrow, and the WAC which started yesterday. Major ups to Kevin Haluska for providing me with the spreadsheet I was too lazy to create on my own. And thanks to everyone […]

After a 3 year stint in Denver’s mostly empty Pepsi Center, the Mountain West tourney returns to its roots on the campus of UNLV. It gets underway today with the fun-filled 8/9 exhibition. The reason the tournament moved from Vegas was partly due to complaints about the home court advantage enjoyed by the Rebels. Once […]

Hi Ken, Here is the list of the 10 teams from last season who were, according to your rankings, the most unlucky, yet still in the top 100 overall (from most to least unlucky last season): Virginia Tech Notre Dame Oregon Drexel Washington State Kansas State Georgia Tech Oklahoma State Butler Xavier Pretty amazing that […]


First things first – HD box for Texas A&M and Texas. The Aggies go 11 of 35 on long 2’s and 13 of 25 on 3’s. Here are the odds for the WCC, which starts Friday: Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Gonzaga 100 100 88.8 63.6 2 Santa Clara 100 100 65.8 24.3 3 St. […]

Here’s the CAA log5 breakdown, as contributed by many. Surging ODU has the best odds out of the 2-seed. Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 2 ODU 100 89.2 67.1 42.5 1 VCU 100 88.8 54.9 27.6 4 Drexel 100 85.4 40.4 17.5 6 GMU 91.3 47.6 14.7 5.6 3 Hofstra 100 51.6 15.1 5.4 7 Towson […]

It’s time to calculate conference tournament odds based on log5 principles. The Valley Ledger has the data for Arch Madness. This is strictly a volunteer effort. If you go through the trouble of computing the odds for a conference tournament, I’ll post them. For those interested, 11.5 is the exponent of choice this season.