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    Win probability for every college game

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, May 31, 2010


    (For a more detailed explanation on how these were derived: see also this.)

    Well, nearly every game. You’ll have to look hard to find the missing games involving two D-I teams. Just head over to your favorite team’s page and click on the score of the game.

    Since these are adjusted win probabilities, games involving non D-I teams are not included. While you might be looking for raw win probability, adjusted is the only way to go. Nobody was watching the opening moments of the Kansas/Alcorn State game with any notion that the game would be competitive, even when Alcorn State somehow scored the first four points. From a strategy standpoint, this is how the participants are (or should be) looking at the game.

    If you’re a regular visitor, then you’ll be able to pick up on what’s going on with a little effort. The only…

    Read more...