by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, July 6, 2010
With a nearly complete database of win probability calculations for each possession played last season, it’s time to do something reasonably fun with the data. What follows is not a compendium of the biggest comebacks in terms of points. It is a mix of those kinds of situations and cases where an underdog spotted its opponent some points, thereby enhancing its longshot status during the game. These are the ten most improbable comebacks last season, accounting for time and score, as well as the difference in ability between the opponents.
The Game: San Diego State at Wyoming, January 9. (Highlights)
The Situation: San Diego State 75, Wyoming 61, 4:47 left (San Diego State ball) (1.8% chance of winning)
The Outcome: Wyoming 85, San Diego State 83.
The Quote: “We just weren’t quite tough enough to weather the storm, and when teams get…