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Friday, March 09, 2007

No Rest, No Problem?

Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out.

The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team had played the day before. And while only two wins were predicted for the fatigued bunch, we’d expect about five based on the sum of the win percentages. In aggregate, fatigued teams slightly underperformed, winning two or three fewer games than expected (although two of the fatigued winners were very unexpected). However, the average score wasn’t much different than expected.

I’ll update this for the 15 games that fall into this category today. 

Fatigued Team  Rested Team       Pred          Outcome
Villanova      Georgetown     L,61-65(33%)     L,57-62
Syracuse       Notre Dame     L,78-80(42%)     L,83-89
West Virginia  Louisville     L,64-66(38%)     L,71-82 2OT
Marquette      Pitt           L,64-67(36%)     L,79-89

Cal            UCLA           L,59-71(10%)     W,76-69 OT
Washington     Washington St. L,63-67(34%)     L,64-74

Dayton         Xavier         L,64-75(15%)     L,51-72
Fordham        Rhode Island   W,69-68(52%)     L,69-73
St. Louis      UMass          L,62-69(23%)     W,74-71 OT
St. Joseph's   George Wash.   L,63-65(44%)     L,48-58

E. Michgan     Toledo         L,62-72(16%)     L,54-62
Ohio           Miami          L,60-61(44%)     L,51-70
C. Michigan    Akron          L,60-75( 5%)     L,53-82
W. Michigan    Kent St.       L,65-69(34%)     L,66-75

Rice           Central Fla.   L,61-79( 5%)     W,53-51
Southern Miss  Houston        L,68-70(43%)     L,59-62
Marshall       Memphis        L,58-82( 2%)     L,71-92
Tulsa          Tulane         W,69-66(64%)     L,56-58

Wins                             5.4              3
Avg Score                       64-70           63-71

Posted on 03/09 at 07:30 AM
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