by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, June 11, 2012
Even if you have no interest in boxing (like me) you’ve heard about the bizarre decision by the judges of the Manny Pacquiao/Tim Bradley fight on Saturday night. Despite nearly everybody believing Pacquiao won the 12-round fight convincingly, two of the three judges gave the fight to Bradley prompting disbelief among observers. This caused me to wonder just how unlikely such a decision was. (Disclaimer: I know next to nothing about boxing and didn’t watch the fight. If I henceforth sound completely ignorant regarding the sport, you know why.)
In order to determine this I wanted to get an estimate of how likely it was for the rational judge to score a particular round for either fighter. I found 18 reporters of varying reputation that scored the fight round-by-round. Here’s how many of those people gave each round to Bradley.
Rd 1: 8 Rd 2: 2 Rd 3: 0 Rd…