How defense works: an investigation
by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 22, 2012
[Note: the graphs originally posted Friday were slightly in error. The corrected data has been posted and does not change the conclusions drawn. My apologies for the mistake.]
The data from last Friday’s post has got me wondering about a lot of things and I hope it did the same for you. Mainly, how does defense work?
First, let’s try to noodle through an explanation of why a team would have no skill in affecting its opponents’ 3P%. If you are on offense, how do you decide when to take a three-pointer? Clearly, there’s some standard for launching a shot. No coach goes into a game telling his team, “we’re going to take 15 3-pointers tonight, regardless of what the defense gives us!” Players have a threshold for when to shoot.
On nights where the defense makes pressuring the ball a…