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    This season’s least-likely comebacks

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 30, 2013


    Michigan’s comeback over Kansas, trailing by ten with 2:32 left and playing defense, had a 0.62% chance of occurring according to my win probability model. This was the 15th least-likely comeback of the season. (Ranking just ahead of Michigan’s own collapse to Penn State on February 27.) What follows are the 13 comebacks from this season that ranked as more unlikely.

    14. February 9, East Tennessee State over Stetson, 0.55%. (Trailed 54-35 with 11:17 to go, won 62-61.)

    13. January 17, Chattanooga over Appalachian State, 0.50%. (Trailed 64-45 with 6:36 left, won 91-88, OT.)

    10. December 18, Lipscomb over Austin Peay, 0.47% . (Trailed 84-72 3:09 left, won 87-84.)

    10. December 11, NJIT over Army, 0.47%. (Trailed 63-51 with 3:06 left, won 69-67.)

    10. December 28, Brown over Providence,  0.47%. (Trailed 67-60 with 0:55 left, won 69-68.)

    9. January 17, Valparaiso over Detroit, 0.46%. (Trailed 88-77 with 3:01 left, won 89-88.)

    8. February 9, Eastern Washington over Northern Arizona, 0.43%. (Trailed 58-40 with 7:15 to go, won 77-74, OT.)

    7. January 24, Richmond over VCU, 0.38%. (Trailed 65-58 with 0:37 to go, won 86-74, OT.)

    6. December 29, Towson over Oregon State, 0.36%. (Trailed 44-25 with 15:48 left, won 67-66, OT.)

    5. November 23, Fairleigh Dickinson over Delaware State, 0.34%. (Trailed 59-52 with 0:35 left, won 63-32.)

    3. February 9, Notre Dame over Louisville, 0.28%. (Trailed 56-48 with 0:51 to go, won 104-101, 5OT.)

    3. February 16, Texas over Oklahoma, 0.28%. (Trailed 67-45, 7:54 to go, won 92-86 OT.)

    2. November 25, Cal Poly over UCLA, 0.24%. (Trailed 51-33 with 12:03 to go, won 70-68.)

    1. March 2, Northern Kentucky over Jacksonville, 0.22%. (Trailed 58-45 2:27 to go, won 66-62.)