Subscribe!
CourtIntelligence powered by kenpom.com

The good stuff


At other venues...
  • ESPN.com ($)
  • Deadspin
  • Slate

  • Strategy
  • Whether to foul up 3 late
  • The value of 2-for-1’s

  • Philosophy
  • Brady Heslip’s non-slump
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • The lack of information in close-game performance
  • Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

  • Fun stuff
  • The missing 1-point games
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago?
  • How many first-round picks will Kentucky have?
  • Prepare for the Kobe invasion
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Monthly Archives

  • September 2014
  • July 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    The Collins twins’ cautionary tale for Florida

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, February 2, 2013


    Here are the five most dominant seven-game stretches in conference play since 2000, ranked by aggregate margin of victory:

    05 Louisville 214 (Games 2-8)
    11 Belmont    210 (Games 2-8)
    00 Stanford   207 (Games 9-15)
    13 Florida    198 (Games 1-7)
    04 St. Joe's  183 (Games 3-9)
    
    

    While Florida’s run has been impressive and unusual, it’s not unprecedented. Even with this run, they will probably lose again in regular-season play, maybe even twice. When that happens, there will be some chatter about what’s wrong with Florida. But taking a longer view, they should still be expected to lose a game. (My system has the Gators as better than 50/50 to go unbeaten in SEC play, but it’s working with an unrealistically high rating.) So there may not be any reason to freak out when they do.

    For reference, here’s the list of the best eight-game streaks.

    11 Belmont    232 (Games 1-8)
    00 Stanford   222 (Games 8-15)
    05 Louisville 218 (Games 2-9)
    01 Arizona    204 (Games 9-16)
    04 St. Joe's  197 (Games 3-10)
    
    

    I asked on twitter yesterday who held the best streak and it was immediately guessed to be Belmont. I think it would have taken a long time to come up with Stanford as the second-best, but they had a crazy run in the middle of Pac-10 play in 2000. Here’s how those wins looked:

     78-63 UCLA
     67-57 USC
     76-61 Oregon
     82-56 Or St
    101-50 Cal
     89-52 Wash St
     77-52 Wash
    111-68 USC
    
    

    This took place so long ago that a team could score 100+ points in a conference game. It was seemingly ages ago but it has relevance today. There are actually a fair amount of similarities between Stanford and Florida. The Cardinal was ranked 13th in the preseason compared to 10 for Florida. Like the Gators, Stanford dominated its non-conference schedule with the exception of two games. In Stanford’s case, they won both of the close calls, overtime games against Duke and Georgia Tech. By the time they got rolling on this streak it was February, but they had lost to Arizona in an earlier conference game.

    After the USC win, Stanford was regarded about like Florida is now. Actually better because they were ranked #1. And like Florida, they weren’t loaded with superstars or played in a particularly tough conference. Stanford’s next game that season was hosting UCLA, a game in which they were favored by 17½. After an opening 18-4 run, they eventually lost in overtime (under wacky circumstances, punctuated with Steve Lavin kissing an official). Stanford would lose at Arizona in their next game, and again ten days later in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

    What does this all mean for Florida? Maybe not much. At least, I wouldn’t predict they are going to flame out in the round of 32. What’s inevitable is that at some point the Gators will play much worse than they have over the last seven games. It probably won’t be worth freaking out over, but Stanford provides an example of a team going from dominant to ordinary seemingly overnight.