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    Sweet 16 log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 23, 2014


    Here’s the log5 for the Sweet 16…

                     Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in   Pvs
     1S  Florida      70.8%  58.9%  38.5%  22.6%   4   12.9%
     1W  Arizona      72.6   50.7   30.2   18.0    6   15.9
     4MW Louisville   69.8   46.6   27.9   16.6    6   12.3
     1E  Virginia     63.0   43.3   24.0   12.6    8   11.5
    11MW Tennessee    54.4   22.4   10.1    4.6   22    0.9
     2W  Wisconsin    58.3   23.0    9.8    4.2   24    2.3
     4E  Michigan St. 37.0   20.9    9.1    3.6   28    2.4
     4S  UCLA         29.2   19.5    8.7    3.3   31    1.3
     2MW Michigan     45.6   16.9    6.9    2.8   35    2.1
     3E  Iowa St.     50.1   17.9    6.8    2.3   43    1.0
     7E  UConn        49.9   17.9    6.8    2.3   44    0.7
     8MW Kentucky     30.2   14.1    5.7    2.3   44    0.7
     4W  San Diego St 27.4   12.9    4.7    1.7   57    1.0
     6W  Baylor       41.7   13.4    4.7    1.7   60    0.4
    10S  Stanford     56.1   13.1    4.0    1.0   99    0.1
    11S  Dayton       43.9    8.5    2.2    0.5  217    0.07
    
    

    Random notes:

    - The Sweet 16 has the quirk of the 15th and 16th best teams playing each other. This is part of the reason that Florida is now given the best chance of a title. It also gives UCLA a nice boost. The Bruins are the tenth-best team left but have the eighth-best chance of a title.

    - The 52 eliminated teams owned a 34.4% chance of a title when the tournament began. While the top four teams remain, the teams with the fifth through ninth-best chances of winning were eliminated.

    - Tennessee would have ranked 11th on this list at the beginning of the tournament and they’ve moved up to fifth, thanks to getting rid of an extra game, piling it on Iowa in OT, and beating UMass easily.

    - Even with just two wins needed to get to Cowboys Stadium, only two teams have crossed the 50% mark in their chances of getting to the Final Four.

    - The biggest outlier—well, besides Tennessee—is Michigan State, who ranks seventh among the remaining teams while oddsmakers continue to take a much more favorable view of them.