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    Projections for returning players

    by Drew Cannon on Thursday, August 9, 2012


    I’ve spent a good chunk of the last couple weeks putting together a player projection system, my primary goal at this point simply having one exist so that, in the future, it can be improved upon. It’s built on a bunch of regressions that take into account the player’s stats from last season, his basic demographics, his team’s stats from last season, high school rankings and ratings, mock draft projections, and awards.

    It cannot handle (yet) transfers, freshmen (although we have something else for some of them, as you’ll remember), redshirts, teammate activity, and coach activity. So quite a bit. But we have something to start with, and that’s something we didn’t have not too long ago.

    I’ll get into some of the more interesting things I found in creating these projections as time goes on. For now, I’m giving you the projections for (1) every BCS All-Conference returnee, (2) every mid-major first-team All-Conference returnee, (3) every low-major conference Player of the Year, (4) projected top draft picks by Draft Express, and (5) ten guys who have awesome stats but fit none of those categories.

    Two of the guys projected for the most regression are Doug McDermott and Isaiah Canaan, and it’s quickly clear what those three have in common: They all had fantastic, likely unsustainable shooting seasons in 2012. Some of their other numbers are certainly adjusted, but McDermott’s projected to drop from 49 percent to 38 percent and Canaan from 46 percent to 40 percent - a more impactful drop, considering the number of threes Canaan attempts. Jordan Taylor ran into this buzzsaw last year. Neither of those two should have bad seasons, by any means; McDermott probably still has the best projections of anyone. But don’t expect either of them to have another gear they’ve been holding back.

    The biggest improvements are expected of Le’Bryan Nash, Joshua Smith, Adonis Thomas, and James Michael McAdoo, and the similarities between those four are equally clear: Projected high draft picks coming off unimpressive seasons tend to improve quickly. Last season, for example, we saw big jumps from Thomas Robinson, Patric Young, and C.J. Leslie.

                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Trevor Releford, Alabama   108   23   3/9   22  18  0/4   2.9   40 78% 50% 33%  30%
    Solomon Hill, Arizona      111   25   8/19  18  19  2/2   2.8   45 73% 52% 35%  32%
    B.J. Young, Arkansas       108   29   4/10  19  17  1/3   2.6   31 78% 50% 36%  37%
    Pierre Jackson, Baylor     111   28   3/8   37  22  0/4   2.4   34 79% 47% 37%  47%
    Mike Muscala, Bucknell     113   27  11/24  12  15  6/1   3.3   61 82% 56% 32%  10%
    Javon McCrea, Buffalo      110   30  12/18  15  18  5/2   3.9   46 65% 58% 28%   2%
    Brandon Davies, BYU        108   28   9/21  15  17  5/3   4.2   57 68% 56% 29%   3%
    Allen Crabbe, California   112   23   4/16  12  13  2/1   1.7   21 83% 47% 40%  51%
    Sean Kilpatrick, Cincy     112   21   4/11  15  14  1/2   1.9   18 76% 46% 38%  54%
    Andre Roberson, Colorado   108   23  11/28  10  16  6/3   3.0   49 65% 54% 31%  19%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Wes Eikmeier, Colorado St. 104   24   1/8   14  16  0/2   2.3   29 84% 44% 37%  42%
    Doug McDermott, Creighton  119   31  10/19   8  13  1/1   1.6   32 80% 57% 38%  25%
    De’Mon Brooks, Davidson    114   29  11/18  10  16  3/3   4.6   38 74% 54% 33%  17%
    Jake Cohen, Davidson       114   26   9/19  12  16  6/2   4.5   52 81% 55% 35%  28%
    Chris Udofia, Denver       111   29   9/18  19  16  7/2   3.8   42 72% 58% 34%  27%
    Ray McCallum, Detroit      110   27   4/12  27  17  1/3   2.3   41 76% 51% 33%  31%
    Frantz Massenat, Drexel    113   21   3/9   29  17  1/2   2.8   47 81% 47% 37%  40%
    Seth Curry, Duke           111   22   3/8   18  17  1/3   2.7   33 83% 46% 38%  51%
    Mason Plumlee, Duke        110   23  12/23  12  20  5/2   3.8   62 55% 57% 27%   1%
    Colt Ryan, Evansville      108   27   3/14  19  16  1/3   3.1   46 84% 43% 39%  43%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Kenny Boynton, Florida     116   23   3/8   17  13  0/2   1.3   25 78% 46% 40%  60%
    Patric Young, Florida      114   22  12/18  10  17  3/1   3.6   40 64% 58% 28%   0%
    Michael Snaer, Florida St. 107   25   3/12  14  16  1/2   2.2   28 81% 45% 38%  44%
    Otto Porter, Georgetown    113   23   9/18  13  16  3/2   2.3   35 71% 56% 32%  21%
    Elias Harris, Gonzaga      110   24  10/22  10  16  3/2   2.6   35 71% 53% 34%  24%
    Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga      115   22   2/9   21  16  0/2   2.0   30 83% 47% 39%  62%
    Alec Brown, Green Bay      104   23  11/21   6  17  9/2   3.3   40 76% 52% 29%   6%
    Vander Joaquim, Hawaii     108   25  12/23   8  18  6/1   3.8   57 64% 58% 28%   2%
    Brandon Paul, Illinois     100   27   4/14  20  18  3/3   3.1   42 74% 47% 35%  43%
    Jackie Carmichael, IL St.  108   26  11/26   9  17  5/1   3.7   62 70% 55% 29%   5%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Cody Zeller, Indiana       119   26  12/19  10  16  4/3   3.8   62 72% 60% 30%   4%
    Jeff Withey, Kansas        113   21  10/22   7  16 13/1   3.2   60 73% 55% 29%   0%
    Rodney McGruder, K-State   113   22   7/12  11  15  1/2   2.1   31 81% 50% 36%  35%
    C.J. McCollum, Lehigh      113   32   4/17  24  15  2/4   2.6   42 82% 49% 37%  33%
    Julian Boyd, Long Island   115   28  10/23   6  15  2/1   3.9   54 72% 55% 33%  18%
    Anthony Ireland, LMU       109   26   2/9   31  20  0/3   2.2   33 78% 45% 34%  37%
    Chaz Williams, UMass       112   24   2/9   35  19  0/4   3.2   46 83% 45% 37%  36%
    Adonis Thomas, Memphis     105   21   5/12   8  16  3/2   2.5   23 71% 52% 33%  27%
    Kenny Kadji, Miami         105   22   8/17   7  16  6/1   3.6   39 69% 51% 33%  22%
    Trey Burke, Michigan       107   27   3/10  28  17  1/2   1.8   29 75% 49% 35%  38%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Tim Hardaway, Michigan     106   26   4/12  15  15  1/1   2.4   33 71% 50% 35%  43%
    Keith Appling, Mich. State 108   24   3/8   27  19  1/3   2.7   48 76% 51% 34%  32%
    Michael Dixon, Missouri    114   28   1/9   24  16  0/2   2.1   38 83% 51% 38%  40%
    Phil Pressey, Missouri     111   25   1/10  37  22  0/4   2.1   40 77% 48% 37%  36%
    Isaiah Canaan, Murray St.  112   27   2/9   22  16  0/2   1.9   39 83% 47% 40%  59%
    Lorenzo Brown, NC State    108   24   3/12  36  23  2/3   1.9   39 75% 49% 33%  23%
    C.J. Leslie, NC State      105   27  10/19  10  18  5/2   3.2   50 65% 54% 29%   6%
    Deonte Burton, Nevada      109   24   1/8   26  17  1/2   2.8   48 80% 46% 37%  46%
    James Michael McAdoo, UNC  104   23   9/16   7  15  3/2   3.0   46 66% 48% 27%   2%
    Tony Mitchell, North Texas 109   27  10/25  11  18  9/2   4.0   49 72% 55% 31%  24%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Drew Crawford, N’western   110   24   5/13  15  15  2/2   2.3   28 76% 49% 37%  38%
    Jack Cooley, Notre Dame    118   21  14/22   7  15  5/2   3.4   51 66% 60% 28%   0%
    Aaron Craft, Ohio State    111   20   3/11  30  23  1/5   3.0   48 73% 51% 34%  28%
    Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State 119   26   9/12   9  12  1/1   2.1   25 76% 54% 36%  30%
    Le’Bryan Nash, OK State    100   27   5/14  12  18  2/2   3.6   41 74% 47% 31%  21%
    E.J. Singler, Oregon       114   24   6/16  15  17  2/1   2.9   38 85% 51% 38%  40%
    Tim Frazier, Penn State    105   29   5/13  40  17  4/3   3.1   43 81% 45% 32%  20%
    Ian Hummer, Princeton      106   30   9/19  21  17  4/3   2.8   41 71% 53% 32%  19%
    Vincent Council, Prov.     105   26   3/9   39  19  1/2   2.1   30 74% 45% 31%  23%
    J. Franklin, San Diego St. 106   30   7/20  12  17  3/2   3.0   47 77% 49% 36%  41%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Nate Wolters, S. Dak. St.  116   32   4/14  31  15  1/3   2.1   42 79% 51% 35%  27%
    M. Dellavedova, St. Mary’s 116   25   2/10  33  18  1/2   1.8   40 82% 51% 38%  44%
    Khalif Wyatt, Temple       111   28   3/11  22  16  1/3   2.6   46 81% 49% 38%  44%
    Jeronne Maymon, Tennessee  108   24  12/20  11  19  2/2   3.9   61 65% 53% 28%   4%
    Myck Kabongo, Texas        102   24   2/9   34  26  0/3   2.7   58 71% 44% 33%  34%
    Ricky Tarrant, Tulane      107   25   2/10  23  16  0/3   2.9   43 77% 46% 35%  48%
    Joshua Smith, UCLA         107   29  14/20   8  19  4/2   6.3   67 62% 56% 27%   2%
    Keith Rendleman, UNCW      105   25  11/20  11  17  3/2   3.5   48 66% 53% 28%   2%
    Mike Moser, UNLV           109   27  10/26  16  18  4/4   2.7   28 76% 53% 35%  32%
    Torrey Craig, USC Upstate  107   27   9/20  11  16  4/3   3.6   27 71% 50% 37%  53%
    
                               ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Preston Medlin, Utah State 115   25   2/12  19  15  1/1   1.7   32 82% 49% 40%  55%
    Ryan Broekhoff, Valparaiso 117   23   7/22  14  15  2/2   2.4   39 78% 56% 39%  48%
    Kevin Van Wijk, Valparaiso 106   29  11/18   8  19  3/2   4.6   75 63% 59% 28%   0%
    Erick Green, Virginia Tech 107   26   2/10  20  15  1/2   1.9   30 84% 44% 35%  16%
    C.J. Harris, Wake Forest   106   24   2/9   17  16  0/2   2.3   48 82% 47% 37%  39%
    Brock Motum, Wash. State   108   30   8/17  11  17  2/1   2.8   46 74% 55% 33%  20%
    Leonard Washington, Wyo.   104   30   9/24  10  15  5/3   3.7   47 70% 55% 32%  22%
    Kendrick Perry, Youngstown 110   26   3/9   27  15  1/4   1.8   38 74% 49% 35%  43%