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    NCAA tourney log5 analysis

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 11, 2012


    What follows is log5-style predictions of each team’s chance of advancing to each round in the tournament. The full list of 68 follows the regional analysis. [Corrected tables due to error in UNC’s rating -kp 3/12]

    South

    - I agree with Luke. Kentucky has the easiest path for a one-seed. The reputations of Duke and Baylor are better (by quite a bit in Duke’s case) than their ability. I’m undecided as to whether to write the annual “(Insert favored team here) will not win the national title” column. But the odds are squarely on my side.

    - At the bottom of the bracket, watch South Dakota State. They didn’t get much of a break in drawing Baylor, but it’s not an impossible situation for them. And should they pull off the upset they’ll have just shy of a 50/50 chance of getting to the Sweet 16.

                          Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
     1S  Kentucky        97.9   82.5   59.6   47.9   31.6   19.7    5
     5S  Wichita St.     77.2   46.0   17.8   11.8    5.7    2.6    39
     4S  Indiana         77.8   41.0   14.6    9.2    4.1    1.7    59
     3S  Baylor          73.5   51.1   31.8   10.9    4.5    1.7    60
     2S  Duke            77.8   53.1   30.1    9.5    3.6    1.2    80
     6S  UNLV            66.0   27.4   13.1    3.0    0.8    0.2    491
     8S  Iowa St.        55.0   10.1    3.6    1.7    0.5    0.1    726
     7S  Notre Dame      55.8   22.7    9.3    1.9    0.5    0.1    1008
     9S  Connecticut     45.0    7.1    2.2    0.9    0.2    0.06   1713
    10S  Xavier          44.2   15.7    5.6    0.9    0.2    0.04   2806
    14S  S. Dakota St.   26.5   12.1    4.6    0.8    0.2    0.03   3357
    12S  VCU             22.8    7.3    1.3    0.5    0.1    0.02   4423
    11S  Colorado        34.0    9.3    3.0    0.4    0.07   0.01   9571
    13S  New Mexico St.  22.2    5.7    0.9    0.3    0.06   0.01   9762
    15S  Lehigh          22.2    8.5    2.4    0.3    0.05   0.007  15289
    16S  Western Kentucky 1.6    0.2    0.01   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  30136770
    16S  Miss. Valley St. 0.4    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001  3063887043
    
    West

    - The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend.

    - ‘76 Indiana gets all the publicity, but the last one-loss national champ was 1974 N.C. State, predating Bob Knight’s perfect team. Good luck Murray State.

                          Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
     1W  Michigan St.    96.3   65.2   49.8   35.2   21.1   12.4    8
     2W  Missouri        96.2   64.4   46.7   23.1   11.3    5.3    19
     8W  Memphis         58.8   22.1   14.2    8.2    3.8    1.7    59
     5W  New Mexico      67.2   41.4   14.2    7.1    2.8    1.0    95
     3W  Marquette       69.6   49.2   20.7    7.5    2.7    0.9    108
     4W  Louisville      71.4   35.7   10.5    4.7    1.6    0.5    192
     7W  Florida         55.3   20.6   12.2    4.4    1.5    0.5    195
     9W  St. Louis       41.2   12.4    6.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    207
    10W  Virginia        44.7   14.6    8.0    2.5    0.8    0.2    450
     6W  Murray St.      60.8   23.6    6.3    1.4    0.3    0.07   1516
    12W  Long Beach St.  32.8   14.7    3.0    1.0    0.3    0.06   1655
    14W  BYU             16.5    8.7    2.2    0.5    0.1    0.02   4978
    14W  Iona            13.9    7.0    1.6    0.3    0.07   0.01   8346
    13W  Davidson        28.6    8.3    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.009  10652
    11W  Colorado St.    39.2   11.5    2.2    0.4    0.06   0.008  11790
    16W  Long Island      3.7    0.3    0.03   0.003 <0.001 <0.001  8005351
    15W  Norfolk St.      3.8    0.3    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  43273119
    
    Midwest

    - The bottom of the bracket is tremendously strong. Leave Belmont out of it - the 15 and 16 seeds are also relatively strong, especially considering the 16’s were selected for a play-in game.

    - Because UNC and Kansas are so evenly matched, Kansas’s 34% chance to get to the Final Four is the most of any team in the region.

                          Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
     2MW Kansas          91.8   70.5   51.3   33.7   17.6    9.1    11
     1MW North Carolina  89.7   66.8   49.9   28.5   13.7    6.6    15
     3MW Georgetown      59.4   42.7   18.7    9.7    3.7    1.4    73
     4MW Michigan        70.2   40.1   15.4    5.7    1.7    0.5    208
    14MW Belmont         40.6   25.9    9.2    4.0    1.2    0.3    286
    10MW Purdue          60.6   18.5    9.1    3.9    1.1    0.3    307
     9MW Alabama         53.7   17.1    9.0    3.1    0.8    0.2    462
    12MW California      36.7   19.8    7.3    2.6    0.7    0.2    519
     5MW Temple          49.6   23.9    7.6    2.3    0.5    0.1    809
     8MW Creighton       46.3   13.4    6.5    2.0    0.5    0.1    858
    11MW N.C. State      53.8   17.7    4.6    1.5    0.3    0.07   1531
     7MW St. Mary's      39.4    9.1    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.05   1858
     6MW San Diego St.   46.2   13.7    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   3047
    13MW Ohio            29.8   10.8    2.4    0.5    0.08   0.01   8408
    12MW South Florida   13.7    5.3    1.3    0.3    0.05   0.008  11815
    16MW Lamar            6.4    1.7    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.001  82369
    15MW Detroit          8.2    1.9    0.4    0.07   0.007 <0.001  153501
    16MW Vermont          3.9    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.003 <0.001  418595
    
    East

    - Are you off the Ohio State bandwagon yet? Me, neither! They’re the only non-one-seed to be the favorite in its region.

    - The 3/14 game between Florida State and St. Bonaventure appears to be remarkably competitive on the surface.

    -Next time somebody says the RPI doesn’t matter, you only need to respond with “Southern Miss”.

                          Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
     2E  Ohio St.        95.1   80.7   66.3   45.9   31.6   19.3    5
     1E  Syracuse        90.5   65.4   37.1   17.5    9.6    4.4    22
     4E  Wisconsin       87.1   58.6   34.0   16.2    9.0    4.2    24
     5E  Vanderbilt      67.2   29.0   13.4    4.9    2.1    0.8    131
     3E  Florida St.     66.2   36.6   10.4    3.9    1.5    0.5    218
     8E  Kansas St.      71.9   26.7   10.6    3.4    1.3    0.4    257
    11E  Texas           52.3   26.9    6.9    2.3    0.8    0.2    450
     6E  Cincinnati      47.7   23.4    5.6    1.8    0.6    0.2    660
     7E  Gonzaga         56.0   10.9    5.2    1.7    0.5    0.1    733
    10E  West Virginia   44.0    7.2    3.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2069
    12E  Harvard         32.8    9.3    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.04   2419
    14E  St. Bonaventure 33.8   13.1    2.3    0.6    0.14   0.03   3758
     9E  Southern Miss   28.1    5.7    1.2    0.2    0.04   0.006  15989
    13E  Montana         12.9    3.1    0.6    0.09   0.01   0.002  53868
    16E  UNC Asheville    9.5    2.2    0.3    0.03   0.004 <0.001  280663
    15E  Loyola MD        4.9    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.003 <0.001  390345
    
    Here’s the full list of teams. Like last year, I’m struck by how similar the order of this list is to the order of my ratings, which suggests that irregularities in the draw don’t have as much impact on a team’s chances of winning the whole tournament as one might think.
                          Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
     1S  Kentucky        97.9   82.5   59.6   47.9   31.6   19.7    5
     2E  Ohio St.        95.1   80.7   66.3   45.9   31.6   19.3    5
     1W  Michigan St.    96.3   65.2   49.8   35.2   21.1   12.4    8
     2MW Kansas          91.8   70.5   51.3   33.7   17.6    9.1    11
     1MW North Carolina  89.7   66.8   49.9   28.5   13.7    6.6    15
     2W  Missouri        96.2   64.4   46.7   23.1   11.3    5.3    19
     1E  Syracuse        90.5   65.4   37.1   17.5    9.6    4.4    22
     4E  Wisconsin       87.1   58.6   34.0   16.2    9.0    4.2    24
     5S  Wichita St.     77.2   46.0   17.8   11.8    5.7    2.6    39
     4S  Indiana         77.8   41.0   14.6    9.2    4.1    1.7    59
     8W  Memphis         58.8   22.1   14.2    8.2    3.8    1.7    59
     3S  Baylor          73.5   51.1   31.8   10.9    4.5    1.7    60
     3MW Georgetown      59.4   42.7   18.7    9.7    3.7    1.4    73
     2S  Duke            77.8   53.1   30.1    9.5    3.6    1.2    80
     5W  New Mexico      67.2   41.4   14.2    7.1    2.8    1.0    95
     3W  Marquette       69.6   49.2   20.7    7.5    2.7    0.9    108
     5E  Vanderbilt      67.2   29.0   13.4    4.9    2.1    0.8    131
     4W  Louisville      71.4   35.7   10.5    4.7    1.6    0.5    192
     7W  Florida         55.3   20.6   12.2    4.4    1.5    0.5    195
     9W  St. Louis       41.2   12.4    6.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    207
     4MW Michigan        70.2   40.1   15.4    5.7    1.7    0.5    208
     3E  Florida St.     66.2   36.6   10.4    3.9    1.5    0.5    218
     8E  Kansas St.      71.9   26.7   10.6    3.4    1.3    0.4    257
    14MW Belmont         40.6   25.9    9.2    4.0    1.2    0.3    286
    10MW Purdue          60.6   18.5    9.1    3.9    1.1    0.3    307
    10W  Virginia        44.7   14.6    8.0    2.5    0.8    0.2    450
    11E  Texas           52.3   26.9    6.9    2.3    0.8    0.2    450
     9MW Alabama         53.7   17.1    9.0    3.1    0.8    0.2    462
     6S  UNLV            66.0   27.4   13.1    3.0    0.8    0.2    491
    12MW California      36.7   19.8    7.3    2.6    0.7    0.2    519
     6E  Cincinnati      47.7   23.4    5.6    1.8    0.6    0.2    660
     8S  Iowa St.        55.0   10.1    3.6    1.7    0.5    0.1    726
     7E  Gonzaga         56.0   10.9    5.2    1.7    0.5    0.1    733
     5MW Temple          49.6   23.9    7.6    2.3    0.5    0.1    809
     8MW Creighton       46.3   13.4    6.5    2.0    0.5    0.1    858
     7S  Notre Dame      55.8   22.7    9.3    1.9    0.5    0.1    1008
     6W  Murray St.      60.8   23.6    6.3    1.4    0.3    0.07   1516
    11MW N.C. State      53.8   17.7    4.6    1.5    0.3    0.07   1531
    12W  Long Beach St.  32.8   14.7    3.0    1.0    0.3    0.06   1655
     9S  Connecticut     45.0    7.1    2.2    0.9    0.2    0.06   1713
     7MW St. Mary's      39.4    9.1    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.05   1858
    10E  West Virginia   44.0    7.2    3.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2069
    12E  Harvard         32.8    9.3    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.04   2419
    10S  Xavier          44.2   15.7    5.6    0.9    0.2    0.04   2806
     6MW San Diego St.   46.2   13.7    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   3047
    14S  S. Dakota St.   26.5   12.1    4.6    0.8    0.2    0.03   3357
    14E  St. Bonaventure 33.8   13.1    2.3    0.6    0.14   0.03   3758
    12S  VCU             22.8    7.3    1.3    0.5    0.1    0.02   4423
    14W  BYU             16.5    8.7    2.2    0.5    0.1    0.02   4978
    14W  Iona            13.9    7.0    1.6    0.3    0.07   0.01   8346
    13MW Ohio            29.8   10.8    2.4    0.5    0.08   0.01   8408
    11S  Colorado        34.0    9.3    3.0    0.4    0.07   0.01   9571
    13S  New Mexico St.  22.2    5.7    0.9    0.3    0.06   0.01   9762
    13W  Davidson        28.6    8.3    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.009  10652
    11W  Colorado St.    39.2   11.5    2.2    0.4    0.06   0.008  11790
    12MW South Florida   13.7    5.3    1.3    0.3    0.05   0.008  11815
    15S  Lehigh          22.2    8.5    2.4    0.3    0.05   0.007  15289
     9E  Southern Miss   28.1    5.7    1.2    0.2    0.04   0.006  15989
    13E  Montana         12.9    3.1    0.6    0.09   0.01   0.002  53868
    16MW Lamar            6.4    1.7    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.001  82369
    15MW Detroit          8.2    1.9    0.4    0.07   0.007 <0.001  153501
    16E  UNC Asheville    9.5    2.2    0.3    0.03   0.004 <0.001  280663
    15E  Loyola MD        4.9    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.003 <0.001  390345
    16MW Vermont          3.9    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.003 <0.001  418595
    16W  Long Island      3.7    0.3    0.03   0.003 <0.001 <0.001  8005351
    16S  Western Kentucky 1.6    0.2    0.01   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  30136770
    15W  Norfolk St.      3.8    0.3    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  43273119
    16S  Miss. Valley St. 0.4    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001  3063887043