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    NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 15, 2015


    Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. Each region is presented individually followed by the entire field. Let me know if you see any errors.

    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1MW Kentucky       97.9   89.7   81.5   68.0   46.1   33.8    3
     3MW Notre Dame     87.5   53.6   29.2    8.1    2.8    1.1    91
     2MW Kansas         83.5   48.4   26.9    7.4    2.5    1.0    101
     7MW Wichita St.    73.4   39.5   21.2    5.6    1.8    0.7    146
    11MW Texas          52.4   23.6   10.5    2.3    0.6    0.2    550
     5MW West Virginia  62.6   36.9    6.0    2.4    0.6    0.2    660
     6MW Butler         47.6   20.4    8.6    1.7    0.4    0.1    815
     4MW Maryland       61.6   30.9    4.4    1.5    0.3    0.08   1318
     8MW Cincinnati     56.6    6.1    3.1    1.1    0.2    0.05   2007
    12MW Buffalo        37.4   17.4    1.9    0.5    0.09   0.02   6114
     9MW Purdue         43.4    3.8    1.7    0.5    0.08   0.01   6673
    10MW Indiana        26.6    8.4    2.5    0.3    0.05   0.01   9915
    13MW Valparaiso     38.4   14.9    1.5    0.4    0.05   0.009  11153
    15MW New Mexico St. 16.5    3.8    0.8    0.07   0.007  0.0009 116241
    14MW Northeastern   12.5    2.3    0.4    0.03   0.002  0.0002 542397
    16MW Manhattan       1.8    0.4    0.08   0.01   0.0006 <.0001 2167482
    16MW Hampton         0.3    0.03   0.003  0.0001 <.0001 <.0001 932647504
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     2W  Arizona        97.7   81.2   65.8   42.1   21.7   13.9    7
     1W  Wisconsin      95.6   81.8   64.2   36.4   17.4   10.5    10
     4W  North Carolina 79.4   54.5   19.0    6.7    1.9    0.7    142
     3W  Baylor         77.2   49.4   15.3    5.9    1.7    0.6    159
    10W  Ohio St.       55.8   11.1    5.5    1.7    0.4    0.1    842
     5W  Arkansas       73.3   31.6    7.9    2.0    0.4    0.1    1002
     6W  Xavier         55.4   24.8    5.6    1.6    0.3    0.09   1095
     7W  VCU            44.2    7.4    3.3    0.9    0.2    0.04   2267
     9W  Oklahoma St.   52.8    9.4    3.9    0.8    0.1    0.03   3084
    11W  BYU            26.9   11.4    2.4    0.6    0.1    0.03   3131
     8W  Oregon         47.2    7.8    3.0    0.6    0.1    0.02   5093
    11W  Mississippi    17.8    6.5    1.1    0.3    0.04   0.008  11837
    14W  Georgia St.    22.8    7.9    1.0    0.18   0.02   0.003  29548
    13W  Harvard        20.6    7.7    1.1    0.15   0.02   0.002  43616
    12W  Wofford        26.7    6.1    0.7    0.09   0.008  0.0009 110472
    16W  C. Carolina     4.4    1.0    0.2    0.01   0.0007 <.0001 1966903
    15W  Texas Southern  2.3    0.2    0.02   0.001  <.0001 <.0001 44005517
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     2S  Gonzaga        93.8   70.5   48.5   29.0   14.5    5.4    19
     1S  Duke           93.0   70.8   45.2   26.3   12.6    4.5    22
     5S  Utah           73.7   51.7   27.4   14.6    6.3    2.0    51
     3S  Iowa St.       86.6   54.0   24.0   11.1    4.1    1.1    94
     4S  Georgetown     83.7   33.9   12.9    4.9    1.4    0.3    359
     6S  SMU            62.6   29.7   11.0    4.3    1.3    0.3    375
     7S  Iowa           55.3   16.7    7.6    2.7    0.8    0.1    700
     8S  San Diego St.  57.5   17.3    6.8    2.3    0.6    0.1    963
    10S  Davidson       44.7   11.8    4.8    1.5    0.4    0.06   1735
    12S  S.F. Austin    26.3   12.4    3.8    1.1    0.3    0.04   2656
    11S  UCLA           37.4   13.5    3.6    1.0    0.2    0.03   3405
     9S  St. John's     42.5   10.5    3.4    1.0    0.2    0.03   3677
    14S  UAB            13.4    2.8    0.3    0.04   0.004  0.0002 440808
    13S  E. Washington  16.3    2.0    0.2    0.03   0.002  0.0001 926304
    16S  North Florida   5.0    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.002  <.0001 1099775
    15S  N. Dakota St.   6.2    1.0    0.1    0.01   0.001  <.0001 2340659
    16S  Robert Morris   2.0    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20838622
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1E  Villanova      96.8   81.6   60.2   35.9   23.1   10.0    10
     2E  Virginia       95.2   75.3   55.7   33.6   21.8    9.6    10
     3E  Oklahoma       89.1   61.3   24.4   10.5    4.9    1.4    73
     5E  Northern Iowa  85.1   54.5   20.8    8.6    3.9    1.0    97
     4E  Louisville     78.8   37.1   11.6    3.9    1.4    0.3    333
     7E  Michigan St.   61.6   16.5    7.9    2.7    1.0    0.2    461
     6E  Providence     56.8   22.0    5.8    1.7    0.5    0.09   1101
     8E  N.C. State     51.9    9.6    3.5    0.9     0.2   0.03   3039
    10E  Georgia        38.4    7.4    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.03   3510
     9E  LSU            48.1    8.3    2.9    0.7    0.2    0.02   4339
    11E  Dayton         27.9    9.2    2.0    0.5    0.1    0.02   5921
    11E  Boise St.      15.3    5.1    1.1    0.3    0.07   0.01   9810
    13E  UC Irvine      21.2    4.5    0.6    0.07   0.01   0.0007 135526
    12E  Wyoming        14.9    3.9    0.4    0.05   0.007  0.0005 209817
    14E  Albany         10.9    2.4    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 931117
    15E  Belmont         4.8    0.8    0.1    0.01   0.0009 <.0001 2436044
    16E  Lafayette       3.2    0.5    0.05   0.003  0.0002 <.0001 18530434
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1MW Kentucky       97.9   89.7   81.5   68.0   46.1   33.8    3
     2W  Arizona        97.7   81.2   65.8   42.1   21.7   13.9    7
     1W  Wisconsin      95.6   81.8   64.2   36.4   17.4   10.5    10
     1E  Villanova      96.8   81.6   60.2   35.9   23.1   10.0    10
     2E  Virginia       95.2   75.3   55.7   33.6   21.8    9.6    10
     2S  Gonzaga        93.8   70.5   48.5   29.0   14.5    5.4    19
     1S  Duke           93.0   70.8   45.2   26.3   12.6    4.5    22
     5S  Utah           73.7   51.7   27.4   14.6    6.3    2.0    51
     3E  Oklahoma       89.1   61.3   24.4   10.5    4.9    1.4    73
     3MW Notre Dame     87.5   53.6   29.2    8.1    2.8    1.1    91
     3S  Iowa St.       86.6   54.0   24.0   11.1    4.1    1.1    94
     5E  Northern Iowa  85.1   54.5   20.8    8.6    3.9    1.0    97
     2MW Kansas         83.5   48.4   26.9    7.4    2.5    1.0    101
     4W  North Carolina 79.4   54.5   19.0    6.7    1.9    0.7    142
     7MW Wichita St.    73.4   39.5   21.2    5.6    1.8    0.7    146
     3W  Baylor         77.2   49.4   15.3    5.9    1.7    0.6    159
     4E  Louisville     78.8   37.1   11.6    3.9    1.4    0.3    333
     4S  Georgetown     83.7   33.9   12.9    4.9    1.4    0.3    359
     6S  SMU            62.6   29.7   11.0    4.3    1.3    0.3    375
     7E  Michigan St.   61.6   16.5    7.9    2.7    1.0    0.2    461
    11MW Texas          52.4   23.6   10.5    2.3    0.6    0.2    550
     5MW West Virginia  62.6   36.9    6.0    2.4    0.6    0.2    660
     7S  Iowa           55.3   16.7    7.6    2.7    0.8    0.1    700
     6MW Butler         47.6   20.4    8.6    1.7    0.4    0.1    815
    10W  Ohio St.       55.8   11.1    5.5    1.7    0.4    0.1    842
     8S  San Diego St.  57.5   17.3    6.8    2.3    0.6    0.1    963
     5W  Arkansas       73.3   31.6    7.9    2.0    0.4    0.1    1002
     6W  Xavier         55.4   24.8    5.6    1.6    0.3    0.09   1095
     6E  Providence     56.8   22.0    5.8    1.7    0.5    0.09   1101
     4MW Maryland       61.6   30.9    4.4    1.5    0.3    0.08   1318
    10S  Davidson       44.7   11.8    4.8    1.5    0.4    0.06   1735
     8MW Cincinnati     56.6    6.1    3.1    1.1    0.2    0.05   2007
     7W  VCU            44.2    7.4    3.3    0.9    0.2    0.04   2267
    12S  S.F. Austin    26.3   12.4    3.8    1.1    0.3    0.04   2656
     8E  N.C. State     51.9    9.6    3.5    0.9    0.2    0.03   3039
     9W  Oklahoma St.   52.8    9.4    3.9    0.8    0.1    0.03   3084
    11W  BYU            26.9   11.4    2.4    0.6    0.1    0.03   3131
    11S  UCLA           37.4   13.5    3.6    1.0    0.2    0.03   3405
    10E  Georgia        38.4    7.4    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.03   3510
     9S  St. John's     42.5   10.5    3.4    1.0    0.2    0.03   3677
     9E  LSU            48.1    8.3    2.9    0.7    0.2    0.02   4339
     8W  Oregon         47.2    7.8    3.0    0.6    0.1    0.02   5093
    11E  Dayton         27.9    9.2    2.0    0.5    0.1    0.02   5921
    12MW Buffalo        37.4   17.4    1.9    0.5    0.09   0.02   6114
     9MW Purdue         43.4    3.8    1.7    0.5    0.08   0.01   6673
    11E  Boise St.      15.3    5.1    1.1    0.3    0.07   0.01   9810
    10MW Indiana        26.6    8.4    2.5    0.3    0.05   0.01   9915
    13MW Valparaiso     38.4   14.9    1.5    0.4    0.05   0.009  11153
    11W  Mississippi    17.8    6.5    1.1    0.3    0.04   0.008  11837
    14W  Georgia St.    22.8    7.9    1.0    0.18   0.02   0.003  29548
    13W  Harvard        20.6    7.7    1.1    0.15   0.02   0.002  43616
    12W  Wofford        26.7    6.1    0.7    0.09   0.008  0.0009 110472
    15MW New Mexico St. 16.5    3.8    0.8    0.07   0.007  0.0009 116241
    13E  UC Irvine      21.2    4.5    0.6    0.07   0.01   0.0007 135526
    12E  Wyoming        14.9    3.9    0.4    0.05   0.007  0.0005 209817
    14S  UAB            13.4    2.8    0.3    0.04   0.004  0.0002 440808
    14MW Northeastern   12.5    2.3    0.4    0.03   0.002  0.0002 542397
    13S  E. Washington  16.3    2.0    0.2    0.03   0.002  0.0001 926304
    14E  Albany         10.9    2.4    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 931117
    16S  North Florida   5.0    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.002  <.0001 1099775
    16W  C. Carolina     4.4    1.0    0.2    0.01   0.0007 <.0001 1966903
    16MW Manhattan       1.8    0.4    0.08   0.01   0.0006 <.0001 2167482
    15S  N. Dakota St.   6.2    1.0    0.1    0.01   0.001  <.0001 2340659
    15E  Belmont         4.8    0.8    0.1    0.01   0.0009 <.0001 2436044
    16E  Lafayette       3.2    0.5    0.05   0.003  0.0002 <.0001 18530434
    16S  Robert Morris   2.0    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20838622
    15W  Texas Southern  2.3    0.2    0.02   0.001  <.0001 <.0001 44005517
    16MW Hampton         0.3    0.03   0.003  0.0001 <.0001 <.0001 932647504