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    MAC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 11, 2013


    March 11, 13-16. First round at higher seed. Remaining games at Cleveland, Ohio.

    All-kenpom: D.J. Cooper, Ohio (kPOY); Chris Evans, Kent State; Zeke Marshall, Akron; Javon McCrea, Buffalo; Rian Pearson, Toledo.

    Akron’s technically the log5 favorite, but last week their starting point guard was charged with trafficking marijuana and their backup point guard has a turnover rate near 50%, so this is a fairly significant development. Obviously, the odds below do not fully take this into account. Ohio’s lone two conference losses were to a fully-loaded Zips squad, most recently in overtime. This is a WCC-style bracket containing multiple byes for the top two seeds, but it makes more sense for the MAC to play this way. Since they’ll rarely have an at-large candidate, there’s more incentive for them to send their best team on to the NCAA tournament. Of special note here is the 1-in-300,000 chance for Northern Illinois, who posted an in-conference offensive efficiency a full 0.1 points-per-possession worse than any other MAC team.

    Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                      Rd1  Qtrs Semis Final Champ
     1 Akron          100   100   100  73.2  45.8
     2 Ohio           100   100   100  76.3  37.3
     4 Kent St.       100   100  74.2  23.0  10.1
     3 W. Michigan    100   100  64.5  17.3   4.7
     6 Bowling Green 78.0  50.8  21.3   4.5   0.9
     8 Buffalo       77.0  51.1  16.3   2.9   0.8
     7 E. Michigan   87.5  36.6  11.2   1.6   0.2
     5 Ball St.       100  37.2   7.2   0.7   0.1
     9 C. Michigan   23.0  11.7   2.3   0.2   0.04
    11 Miami OH      22.0  10.7   2.8   0.3   0.04
    10 N. Illinois   12.5   1.9   0.2   0.008 0.0003