Subscribe!
CourtIntelligence powered by kenpom.com

The good stuff


At other venues...
  • ESPN.com ($)
  • Deadspin
  • Slate

  • Strategy
  • Whether to foul up 3 late
  • The value of 2-for-1’s

  • Philosophy
  • Brady Heslip’s non-slump
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • The lack of information in close-game performance
  • Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

  • Fun stuff
  • The missing 1-point games
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago?
  • How many first-round picks will Kentucky have?
  • Prepare for the Kobe invasion
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Monthly Archives

  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • July 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    In-season tournament log5 analysis

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, November 20, 2013


    In-season tournaments begin tomorrow, providing fans with a steady dose of matinee basketball for the next two weeks. Here’s your log5 guide to those events. Only true eight-team brackets are eligible for this analysis. (Sorry, teams in fake pre-determined brackets.) These tournaments are ordered by strength of field, from weakest to strongest.

    Gulf Coast Showcase (TV: ???, Nov. 25-27)

                     Semis Final Champ
     99 San Diego     87.7  48.8  28.9
    100 La. Tech      83.0  45.8  27.1
    103 St. Bona.     73.6  49.7  25.5
    169 Wagner        75.4  33.4  13.2
    222 S. Illinois   26.4  11.6   3.2
    279 Stetson       24.6   5.3   1.0
    276 NC Greensboro 17.0   3.0   0.7
    302 Ill. Chicago  12.3   2.4   0.5
    
    

    What to watch for: Uh, I don’t think you can actually watch this unless you’re at Germain Arena. This new tournament is showcasing some mediocre mid-majors. But I’ll never complain about new tournaments on the schedule, especially when they figure to produce a few competitive matchups.

    Great Alaska Shootout (TV: CBS Sports Network, Nov. 27-30)

                     Semis Final Champ
     57 Indiana St.   70.8  62.7  35.4
     49 Harvard       70.0  48.0  30.2
     83 Green Bay     74.2  31.8  16.1
    133 Tulsa         29.2  22.3   7.9
    118 Denver        30.0  14.8   6.5
    208 Pepperdine    25.8   5.5   1.6
     NR Alaska Anc.   54.3   8.7   1.4
    268 TCU           45.7   6.4   0.9
    
    

    Reason to watch: A D-II team being favored in a game. It’s possible TCU isn’t the worst D-I squad in the bracket, but it’s also possible that they’ll be an underdog in their first round game against Alaska-Anchorage. The Seawolves are notoriously tough in this event and if TCU is favored it won’t be by much. Indiana State benefits by drawing the winner of that game, and thus gets an edge over higher-ranked Harvard in terms of its chance of winning the event.

    Paradise Jam (TV: CBS Sports Network, Nov. 22-25)

                     Semis Final Champ
     61 Maryland      91.0  63.3  33.5
     44 Providence    64.2  48.3  31.0
     76 Vanderbilt    35.8  22.7  11.5
    108 La Salle      79.9  26.7  11.4
    122 Northern Iowa 56.3  21.0   7.6
    155 Loyola Mmt    43.7  14.0   4.3
    260 Morgan St.    20.1   2.3   0.4
    287 Marist         9.0   1.7   0.2
    
    

    Reason to watch: La Salle finding itself. Maryland gets the edge here by virtue of its first-round friendly against Marist. What’s the deal with La Salle? The Explorers figured to be really good this season, what with bringing back an experienced core form a Sweet 16 team, but they haven’t looked sharp in starting the season 2-2 with ugly wins against Quinnipiac and Siena. Some of this is dumb luck - opponents are making high percentage of their threes (39.7%) and grabbing a ridiculous number of missed shots (39.7% vs. 26.7% last season), too. I wouldn’t take them too lightly here.

    Puerto Rico Tip-Off (TV: ESPN2/3/U, Nov. 21, 22, 24)

                     Semis Final Champ
      7 VCU           76.5  45.5  30.9
     18 Michigan      90.8  45.8  28.7
     25 Georgetown    82.9  59.8  27.1
     63 Kansas St.    73.6  28.7   8.3
     65 Florida St.   23.5   7.8   3.2
    148 Charlotte     17.1   6.2   1.0
    164 Northeastern  26.4   5.3   0.7
    202 Long Beach St. 9.2   1.0   0.2
    
    

    What to watch for: VCU’s defense against a team that takes care of the ball. Who do the new rules interpretations affect? You might think a team like VCU that relies on forcing turnovers. Well, guess again. VCU is still forcing turnovers, and the Rams are fouling a lot more, too, but it hasn’t been a problem so far. They should face Michigan in the semifinals and under the old interpretations, things didn’t go so well for the Rams when the two teams squared off last March. A rematch would make for compelling viewing.

    Charleston Classic (TV: ESPN2/3/U, Nov. 21, 22, 24)

                     Semis Final Champ
     21 New Mexico    78.5  53.3  40.8
     47 UMass         60.4  25.6  16.8
     56 Clemson       46.0  18.9   9.4
     70 Nebraska      39.6  13.1   8.7
    116 Georgia       56.6  32.7   8.7
    125 Temple        54.0  27.4   6.9
    152 Davidson      43.4  21.0   4.6
     94 UAB           21.5   7.9   4.1
    
    

    What to watch for: Quality, yet obscure teams. This is sort of like the American Idol of in-season tournaments. Some of these teams fancy themselves as at-large possibilities and the rest of the country doesn’t know much about them. A good audition here, and a UMass, Clemson, Nebraska, or UAB can rack up some wins that will matter when mock brackets are being generated.

    Wooden Legacy (ESPN/2/3/U, Nov. 28-30)

                     Semis Final Champ
     15 Creighton     61.7  47.9  35.7
     53 Marquette     79.7  47.9  19.2
     32 Arizona St.   38.3  26.3  17.0
     66 San Diego St. 84.2  24.6  12.4
     64 George Wash.  55.2  26.9   8.9
     86 Miami FL      44.8  19.6   5.7
    196 Cal St. Full. 20.3   5.6   0.9
    246 Charleston    15.8   1.1   0.2
    

    What to watch for: Maurice Creek. Fullerton gets to play on his home floor for the first two games, and that’s not accounted for here. That will make the likelihood of an all-Big East final a little more remote as Marquette draws the Titans in the first round. Maurice Creek has been a revelation for Mike Lonergan’s GW squad, making 16 of his first 25 threes so far for the 4-0 Colonials. Hey, the graduate transfer rule benefits the mid-major for once. The first president has a first-round grudge match with Miami.

    Old Spice Classic (TV: ESPN/2/3/U, Nov. 28, 29, Dec. 1)

                     Semis Final Champ
      3 Oklahoma St.  86.5  74.1  56.2
     24 Memphis       93.9  62.2  24.5
     51 LSU           54.0  20.9   5.9
     59 Butler        66.2  14.7   5.9
     62 St. Joseph's  46.0  16.2   4.1
     69 Purdue        13.5   6.7   2.3
    107 Wash. St.     33.8   4.6   1.2
    259 Siena          6.1   0.7   0.04
    

    What to watch for: An upset. I wouldn’t mind seeing an Oklahoma State/Memphis rematch in the finals, if only because the game would surely be more competitive than Tuesday night’s contest.Having to play a quality team you just smoked presents an interesting mental challenge. But the chances of that game happening are a bit less than 50 percent, even with Memphis getting a virtual first-round bye. Compounding probabilities are fun.

    Battle 4 Atlantis (AXS TV/NBC Sports Network, Nov. 28-30)

                     Semis Final Champ
      4 Kansas        88.5  59.3  43.1
     16 Villanova     85.1  36.0  22.2
     19 Iowa          63.2  42.3  17.4
     41 Tennessee     66.3  28.3   8.6
     43 Xavier        36.8  20.0   5.9
     75 UTEP          33.7   9.3   1.7
    101 Wake Forest   11.5   2.7   0.7
    119 USC           14.9   2.0   0.5
    

    What to watch for: Humans battling 4 mythical underwater cities. Imagine how dumb they will feel when they find out what they’re battling 4. This was the premier in-season tournament a year ago and the field’s not quite as strong this season, but there’s still some intrigue. I feel like there’s a bit of a bias nationally against the Big East. Since they don’t have football, they can’t be considered a strong basketball conference. That seems to be the logic. However, from top to bottom, this is a really nice conference—yes, that includes DePaul—and Villanova and Xavier can advance that idea with a good showing in the Bahamas.

    Maui Invitational (TV: ESPN/2, Nov. 25-27)

                     Semis Final Champ
     12 Gonzaga       80.5  54.6  31.7
     29 Baylor        94.5  41.0  19.3
     22 Minnesota     54.7  33.3  18.4
     31 California    69.6  30.5  13.8
     23 Syracuse      45.3  25.5  13.0
     74 Arkansas      30.4   8.1   2.1
     79 Dayton        19.5   6.8   1.7
     NR Chaminade      5.5   0.2   0.01
    

    What to watch for: Andre Hollins. Why don’t people talk about Andre Hollins? That’s a rhetorical question: It’s clear he’s not a winner. That’s the reason guys like Larry Drew, Phil Pressey, and Aaron Craft have have had many more words written about them in the last 12 months than Hollins even though Hollins is one of the best two-way point guards in the country. I don’t think it’s too tough to follow the logic that if Hollins had Craft’s teammates, he wins more games. Anyway, it’s going to be hard to prove the critics wrong in Maui, where a loss or two by Minnesota is likely against the toughest field of all the tourneys.