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    Horizon League log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 4, 2013


    March 5, 8, 9, 12. First round/final at higher seed. Quarters/semis at Valparaiso.

    All-kenpom: Ray McCallum, Detroit (kPOY); Ryan Broekhoff, Valparaiso; Kevin Van Wijk, Valparaiso; Nick Minnerath, Detroit, Keifer Sykes, Green Bay.

    The best free-throw shooting conference in college basketball tips off its tournament at campus sites Tuesday night. The undisputed two-best teams in the league, Valpo and Detroit, get byes to the semifinals. The spoils of home court go to the regular-season champ, and so despite the fact that the two teams are pretty even in skill (Detroit actually won at Valpo two weeks ago), the Crusaders are the clear favorite here.

    Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                      Qtrs Semis Final Champ
    1 Valparaiso       100   100  84.3  60.4
    2 Detroit          100   100  71.5  28.8
    3 Wright St.       100  65.6  21.3   5.7
    4 Green Bay       92.3  67.0  13.0   3.7
    7 Loyola Chicago  45.1  17.6   4.2   0.7
    5 UIC             75.1  25.0   2.3   0.4
    6 Youngstown St.  54.9  16.8   3.0   0.3
    8 Cleveland St.   24.9   5.8   0.3   0.03
    9 Milwaukee        7.7   2.2   0.08  0.004