by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 12, 2013
March 14-16 at Montana
All-kenpom: Davion Berry, Weber State (kPOY); Kareem Jamar, Montana; Kyle Tresnak, Weber State; Scott Bamforth, Weber State; Joel Bolomboy, Weber State.
Montana and Weber State have combined to go 64-2 against other Big Sky foes the last two seasons. It shouldn’t be a surprise then that these two teams account for 95% of the possibilities for the conference champion. It might be a bit of surprise, though, that these two teams nearly split those chances even though Montana gets to host the event and they need to play one fewer game to earn the title. Weber State has generally been shredding its opponents worse than Montana and thus is viewed as the better team in this analysis. Montana is battling injuries, with point guard Will Cherry and forward Mathias Ward suffering foot injuries late in the season. Cherry is back but Ward is done for the season. All in all, it should be a competitive matchup if the two meet in the title game as expected.
Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
Semis Final Champ 2 Weber St. 92.8 82.4 48.5 1 Montana 100 87.6 46.2 5 Northern Colorado 65.4 12.4 2.5 3 North Dakota 59.4 8.0 1.5 6 Southern Utah 40.6 4.8 0.7 4 Montana St. 34.6 4.1 0.5 7 Northern Arizona 7.2 0.7 0.09