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    Big 12 log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 12, 2013


    March 13-16. All games at Kansas City, Mo.

    All-kenpom: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State (kPOY); Jeff Withey, Kansas; Ben McLemore, Kansas; Pierre Jackson, Baylor; Romero Osby, Oklahoma.

    As is customary in this event, Kansas is a convincing favorite. The Jayhawks have won five tournaments during the previous eight years of sharing or outright winning the regular-season Big 12 title. The two through six seeds are good enough to give the Jayhawks some competition, so Kansas’ chances of winning aren’t much better than a coin flip. Because the bottom four teams are quite a bit worse than the rest of the conference, there was a nice bonus for the teams the got the top two-seeds. So even though Kansas State and Iowa State are roughly equal in skill, the Wildcats’ chances of winning the title are significantly better.

    Kansas gets half of a home-court share in this analysis.

    Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Qtrs Semis Final Champ
     1 Kansas       100  93.5  73.3  54.2
     3 Oklahoma St. 100  63.4  41.9  17.1
     2 Kansas St.   100  75.9  33.2  10.4
     5 Iowa St.     100  55.6  15.0   7.1
     6 Baylor       100  36.6  19.6   5.8
     4 Oklahoma     100  44.4  10.3   4.3
     7 Texas       86.7  23.4   5.3   0.8
     8 W. Virginia 81.1   6.1   1.4   0.3
     9 Texas Tech  18.9   0.4   0.02  0.001
    10 TCU         13.3   0.7   0.03  0.0009