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    America East log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 7, 2013


    March 9-10, 16. Quarters/semis at Albany. Championship at higher seed.

    All-kenpom: Jameel Warney, Stony Brook (kPOY); Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook; Mark Nwakamma, Hartford; Mike Black, Albany; Dave Coley, Stony Brook.

    I always root for Maine to win its conference tournament. And every year I am disappointed. The Black Bears got a break this season when super-freshman Justin Edwards decided to stay in Orono instead of transferring to a program with a more illustrious postseason tradition, which is like every single one. Maine has never won a conference championship and has never participated in a postseason tournament of any kind. Perhaps if Rick Carlisle had shown the kind of commitment that Edwards has, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Not that we are conversing, mind you, but Carlisle left for Virginia after his sophomore year in 1981 and eventually got to a Final Four. That should have been Maine’s Final Four. More recently, if Tom Knight had not forsaken his home state and attended Notre Dame, perhaps we would be talking about a much better Maine team this season. But that is the story of Maine basketball. And because Boston University could not educate its players is leaving America East and is not eligible for the tournament, Maine is forced to play its quarterfinal game against the tournament host, Albany, squelching what little hope the Black Bears might have had for glory. That is the story of Maine basketball.

    Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Semis Final Champ
    1 Stony Brook   98.6  70.1  62.0
    2 Vermont       79.5  57.8  17.9
    4 Albany        85.2  28.6  12.9
    3 Hartford      77.3  29.7   6.1
    7 New Hampshire 20.5   8.7   0.7
    5 Maine         14.8   1.3   0.3
    6 UMBC          22.7   3.8   0.2
    8 Binghamton     1.4   0.06  0.003