by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 7, 2013
March 9-10, 16. Quarters/semis at Albany. Championship at higher seed.
All-kenpom: Jameel Warney, Stony Brook (kPOY); Tommy Brenton, Stony Brook; Mark Nwakamma, Hartford; Mike Black, Albany; Dave Coley, Stony Brook.
I always root for Maine to win its conference tournament. And every year I am disappointed. The Black Bears got a break this season when super-freshman Justin Edwards decided to stay in Orono instead of transferring to a program with a more illustrious postseason tradition, which is like every single one. Maine has never won a conference championship and has never participated in a postseason tournament of any kind. Perhaps if Rick Carlisle had shown the kind of commitment that Edwards has, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Not that we are conversing, mind you, but Carlisle left for Virginia after his sophomore year in 1981 and eventually got to a Final Four. That should have been Maine’s Final Four. More recently, if Tom Knight had not forsaken his home state and attended Notre Dame, perhaps we would be talking about a much better Maine team this season. But that is the story of Maine basketball. And because Boston University
Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.
Semis Final Champ 1 Stony Brook 98.6 70.1 62.0 2 Vermont 79.5 57.8 17.9 4 Albany 85.2 28.6 12.9 3 Hartford 77.3 29.7 6.1 7 New Hampshire 20.5 8.7 0.7 5 Maine 14.8 1.3 0.3 6 UMBC 22.7 3.8 0.2 8 Binghamton 1.4 0.06 0.003