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    ACC log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 13, 2013


    March 14-17 at Greensboro, N.C.

    All-kenpom: Mason Plumlee, Duke (kPOY); Joe Harris, Virginia; Akil Mitchell, Virginia; Kenny Kadji, Miami; Quinn Cook, Duke.

    I haven’t applied any home-court advantage to this analysis, but it figures that Duke, UNC, and N.C. State benefit more than Miami and Virginia from playing at Greensboro. I take issue with the notion that Ryan Kelly truly transforms the quality of Duke’s defense from a good D-II team to one of the best D-I teams. But it’s clear Duke is much better with him in the lineup - they’re just not invincible and log5 says don’t be too surprised if they get tripped up here. Interestingly, Virginia Tech’s Erick Green was named ACC player of the year, which has to be a rare achievement in any conference for a member of the last-place team. The kPOY likes winners, though, and that’s why Mason Plumlee wins the award here.

    Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                     Qtrs Semis Final Champ
     2 Duke           100  87.0  67.6  47.4
     1 Miami FL       100  82.1  48.7  21.3
     4 Virginia       100  64.2  32.5  12.7
     3 North Carolina 100  79.8  25.1  11.5
     5 N.C. State    84.5  34.1  14.2   4.4
     7 Maryland      71.7  11.1   4.6   1.4
     9 Georgia Tech  55.9  10.8   2.9   0.5
     6 Florida St.   48.9   9.7   1.1   0.2
     8 Boston Coll.  44.1   7.0   1.6   0.2
    11 Clemson       51.1  10.5   1.3   0.2
    10 Wake Forest   28.3   1.9   0.4   0.07
    12 Virginia Tech 15.5   1.7   0.2   0.02