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    2016 NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 13, 2016


    What follows is the odds for every team in the field of 68 advancing through each round of the NCAA tournament using log5 methodology and my ratings.

                           Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in
     1MW  Virginia         96.2   77.9   54.5   34.2   21.4   13.2    8
     2MW  Michigan St.     92.2   75.0   55.8   32.4   19.8   11.9    8
     4MW  Iowa St.         75.2   39.0   15.2    6.8    3.0    1.3    79
     5MW  Purdue           71.4   43.1   18.4    9.0    4.3    2.0    49
     6MW  Seton Hall       51.4   30.2   11.1    4.0    1.5    0.6    175
     3MW  Utah             75.2   36.1   12.5    4.2    1.5    0.5    189
    11MW  Gonzaga          48.6   27.9    9.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    216
    10MW  Syracuse         54.7   13.3    5.7    1.5    0.5    0.1    770
     9MW  Butler           50.5   11.0    4.0    1.2    0.4    0.1    941
     8MW  Texas Tech       49.5   10.6    3.8    1.2    0.3    0.1    1035
    12MW  Little Rock      28.6   11.2    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.06   1678
     7MW  Dayton           45.3    9.7    3.7    0.9    0.2    0.06   1751
    13MW  Iona             24.8    6.7    1.3    0.3    0.06   0.01   8116
    14MW  Fresno St.       24.8    5.8    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.004  27831
    15MW  Middle Tennessee  7.8    2.1    0.4    0.05   0.007  0.0008 124679
    16MW  Hampton           3.8    0.5    0.05   0.004  0.0003 <.0001 6010907
    
                           Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in
     1E   North Carolina   95.6   76.6   48.4   32.3   17.6   10.3    10
     3E   West Virginia    70.1   52.9   34.4   17.5    8.4    4.4    23
     4E   Kentucky         83.2   51.9   25.8   15.4    7.2    3.7    27
     2E   Xavier           86.4   55.7   29.5   12.5    5.0    2.2    46
     5E   Indiana          81.9   40.0   17.3    9.1    3.7    1.6    62
     7E   Wisconsin        56.2   24.6   10.2    3.2    1.0    0.3    321
    14E   S. F. Austin     29.9   17.0    7.7    2.4    0.7    0.2    436
     6E   Notre Dame       55.9   18.0    7.4    2.1    0.5    0.2    638
    10E   Pittsburgh       43.8   16.7    6.0    1.6    0.4    0.1    906
     9E   Providence       50.4   11.5    3.6    1.3    0.3    0.08   1196
     8E   USC              49.6   11.2    3.5    1.2    0.3    0.08   1284
    11E   Michigan         22.8    6.3    2.3    0.5    0.1    0.03   3286
    11E   Tulsa            21.3    5.7    2.0    0.5    0.1    0.02   4098
    13E   Stony Brook      16.8    4.6    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.006  16584
    12E   Chattanooga      18.1    3.5    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.003  39409
    15E   Weber St.        13.6    3.0    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0006 154051
    16E   FCGU              3.6    0.7    0.06   0.008  0.0005 <.0001 2303720
    16E   F. Dickinson      0.8    0.07   0.004  0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 363773082
    
                           Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in
     1S   Kansas           96.9   75.5   57.4   37.3   26.0   15.4    7
     2S   Villanova        89.9   63.3   40.3   21.9   13.9    7.3    14
     3S   Miami FL         86.7   44.8   20.3    8.7    4.5    1.8    55
     6S   Arizona          51.5   27.7   12.3    5.1    2.6    1.0    98
     7S   Iowa             76.2   29.9   14.4    5.7    2.8    1.0    98
     4S   California       68.8   39.3   13.5    5.6    2.6    0.9    107
     5S   Maryland         72.6   39.9   13.4    5.4    2.5    0.9    115
    11S   Wichita St.      30.6   17.1    7.9    3.5    1.8    0.7    133
     9S   Connecticut      65.1   18.0    9.5    3.8    1.7    0.6    175
    11S   Vanderbilt       17.9    8.5    3.2    1.2    0.5    0.2    583
     8S   Colorado         34.9    6.2    2.3    0.6    0.2    0.04   2376
    13S   Hawaii           31.2   12.0    2.4    0.6    0.2    0.04   2790
    12S   South Dakota St. 27.4    8.8    1.5    0.3    0.08   0.01   7442
    10S   Temple           23.8    4.5    1.0    0.2    0.04   0.007  14332
    15S   UNC Asheville    10.1    2.4    0.4    0.05   0.009  0.001  89976
    14S   Buffalo          13.3    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.004  0.0004 246405
    16S   Austin Peay       3.1    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 13047350
    
                           Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in
     2W   Oklahoma         83.7   61.6   39.8   24.1   11.7    5.5    18
     1W   Oregon           95.6   65.0   41.5   23.7   10.9    4.9    21
     3W   Texas A&M        83.6   54.2   28.2   14.9    6.1    2.4    42
     4W   Duke             72.3   39.9   18.7    8.9    3.3    1.2    85
     5W   Baylor           60.7   33.5   15.4    7.2    2.6    0.9    112
     6W   Texas            68.1   31.6   13.6    5.9    1.9    0.6    173
     9W   Cincinnati       54.5   19.8    9.4    3.9    1.2    0.4    281
    10W   VCU              58.8   20.9    9.2    3.6    1.0    0.3    351
     8W   Saint Joseph's   45.5   14.8    6.4    2.4    0.7    0.2    586
    12W   Yale             39.3   17.6    6.3    2.3    0.6    0.2    617
     7W   Oregon St.       41.2   11.8    4.2    1.3    0.3    0.06   1584
    11W   Northern Iowa    31.9    9.7    2.6    0.7    0.1    0.02   4347
    13W   UNC Wilmington   27.7    9.0    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02   4701
    15W   CSU Bakersfield  16.3    5.7    1.6    0.4    0.06   0.009  10573
    14W   Green Bay        16.4    4.5    0.9    0.2    0.02   0.002  41543
    16W   Southern          3.0    0.3    0.03   0.003  <.0001 <.0001 25328061
    16W   Holy Cross        1.4    0.1    0.006  0.0003 <.0001 <.0001 326626540
    
                           Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   1 in
     1S   Kansas           96.9   75.5   57.4   37.3   26.0   15.4    7
     1MW  Virginia         96.2   77.9   54.5   34.2   21.4   13.2    8
     2MW  Michigan St.     92.2   75.0   55.8   32.4   19.8   11.9    8
     1E   North Carolina   95.6   76.6   48.4   32.3   17.6   10.3    10
     2S   Villanova        89.9   63.3   40.3   21.9   13.9    7.3    14
     2W   Oklahoma         83.7   61.6   39.8   24.1   11.7    5.5    18
     1W   Oregon           95.6   65.0   41.5   23.7   10.9    4.9    21
     3E   West Virginia    70.1   52.9   34.4   17.5    8.4    4.4    23
     4E   Kentucky         83.2   51.9   25.8   15.4    7.2    3.7    27
     3W   Texas A&M        83.6   54.2   28.2   14.9    6.1    2.4    42
     2E   Xavier           86.4   55.7   29.5   12.5    5.0    2.2    46
     5MW  Purdue           71.4   43.1   18.4    9.0    4.3    2.0    49
     3S   Miami FL         86.7   44.8   20.3    8.7    4.5    1.8    55
     5E   Indiana          81.9   40.0   17.3    9.1    3.7    1.6    62
     4MW  Iowa St.         75.2   39.0   15.2    6.8    3.0    1.3    79
     4W   Duke             72.3   39.9   18.7    8.9    3.3    1.2    85
     6S   Arizona          51.5   27.7   12.3    5.1    2.6    1.0    98
     7S   Iowa             76.2   29.9   14.4    5.7    2.8    1.0    98
     4S   California       68.8   39.3   13.5    5.6    2.6    0.9    107
     5W   Baylor           60.7   33.5   15.4    7.2    2.6    0.9    112
     5S   Maryland         72.6   39.9   13.4    5.4    2.5    0.9    115
    11S   Wichita St.      30.6   17.1    7.9    3.5    1.8    0.7    133
     6W   Texas            68.1   31.6   13.6    5.9    1.9    0.6    173
     9S   Connecticut      65.1   18.0    9.5    3.8    1.7    0.6    175
     6MW  Seton Hall       51.4   30.2   11.1    4.0    1.5    0.6    175
     3MW  Utah             75.2   36.1   12.5    4.2    1.5    0.5    189
    11MW  Gonzaga          48.6   27.9    9.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    216
     9W   Cincinnati       54.5   19.8    9.4    3.9    1.2    0.4    281
     7E   Wisconsin        56.2   24.6   10.2    3.2    1.0    0.3    321
    10W   VCU              58.8   20.9    9.2    3.6    1.0    0.3    351
    14E   S. F. Austin     29.9   17.0    7.7    2.4    0.7    0.2    436
    11S   Vanderbilt       17.9    8.5    3.2    1.2    0.5    0.2    583
     8W   Saint Joseph's   45.5   14.8    6.4    2.4    0.7    0.2    586
    12W   Yale             39.3   17.6    6.3    2.3    0.6    0.2    617
     6E   Notre Dame       55.9   18.0    7.4    2.1    0.5    0.2    638
    10MW  Syracuse         54.7   13.3    5.7    1.5    0.5    0.1    770
    10E   Pittsburgh       43.8   16.7    6.0    1.6    0.4    0.1    906
     9MW  Butler           50.5   11.0    4.0    1.2    0.4    0.1    941
     8MW  Texas Tech       49.5   10.6    3.8    1.2    0.3    0.1    1035
     9E   Providence       50.4   11.5    3.6    1.3    0.3    0.08   1196
     8E   USC              49.6   11.2    3.5    1.2    0.3    0.08   1284
     7W   Oregon St.       41.2   11.8    4.2    1.3    0.3    0.06   1584
    12MW  Little Rock      28.6   11.2    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.06   1678
     7MW  Dayton           45.3    9.7    3.7    0.9    0.2    0.06   1751
     8S   Colorado         34.9    6.2    2.3    0.6    0.2    0.04   2376
    13S   Hawaii           31.2   12.0    2.4    0.6    0.2    0.04   2790
    11E   Michigan         22.8    6.3    2.3    0.5    0.1    0.03   3286
    11E   Tulsa            21.3    5.7    2.0    0.5    0.1    0.02   4098
    11W   Northern Iowa    31.9    9.7    2.6    0.7    0.1    0.02   4347
    13W   UNC Wilmington   27.7    9.0    2.3    0.6    0.1    0.02   4701
    12S   South Dakota St. 27.4    8.8    1.5    0.3    0.08   0.01   7442
    13MW  Iona             24.8    6.7    1.3    0.3    0.06   0.01   8116
    15W   CSU Bakersfield  16.3    5.7    1.6    0.4    0.06   0.009  10573
    10S   Temple           23.8    4.5    1.0    0.2    0.04   0.007  14332
    13E   Stony Brook      16.8    4.6    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.006  16584
    14MW  Fresno St.       24.8    5.8    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.004  27831
    12E   Chattanooga      18.1    3.5    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.003  39409
    14W   Green Bay        16.4    4.5    0.9    0.2    0.02   0.002  41543
    15S   UNC Asheville    10.1    2.4    0.4    0.05   0.009  0.001  89976
    15MW  Middle Tennessee  7.8    2.1    0.4    0.05   0.007  0.0008 124679
    15E   Weber St.        13.6    3.0    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0006 154051
    14S   Buffalo          13.3    1.9    0.2    0.03   0.004  0.0004 246405
    16E   FCGU              3.6    0.7    0.06   0.008  0.0005 <.0001 2303720
    16MW  Hampton           3.8    0.5    0.05   0.004  0.0003 <.0001 6010907
    16S   Austin Peay       3.1    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 13047350
    16W   Southern          3.0    0.3    0.03   0.003  <.0001 <.0001 25328061
    16W   Holy Cross        1.4    0.1    0.006  0.0003 <.0001 <.0001 326626540
    16E   F. Dickinson      0.8    0.07   0.004  0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 363773082