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    2014 NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 17, 2014


    What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year:

    - The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

    - This does not necessarily represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. There are subjective factors which this analysis does not include. Please use it responsibly.

    - Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Arizona will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s an 84% chance they won’t.

    - If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Louisville doesn’t suffer much as a four-seed. However, it’s a different story if you have to play extra game like Tennessee.

    - No proximity bonus is included in any games here.

    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1W  Arizona        95.8   70.8   55.5   40.2   24.9   15.9    6
     1S  Florida        95.7   71.6   51.2   35.7   22.6   12.9    8
     4MW Louisville     87.3   71.5   44.3   31.5   19.7   12.3    8
     1E  Virginia       96.7   77.4   52.9   35.4   21.2   11.5    9
     1MW Wichita St.    95.4   68.1   36.8   24.4   13.9    8.0    13
     2E  Villanova      92.3   62.3   41.3   21.0   10.8    5.0    20
     3W  Creighton      87.0   59.1   36.1   16.6    7.6    3.6    27
     2S  Kansas         88.2   58.1   34.5   16.1    8.0    3.5    29
     3MW Duke           84.6   53.5   33.2   14.1    6.8    3.2    31
     4E  Michigan St.   84.3   51.4   22.9   12.5    5.9    2.4    41
     2W  Wisconsin      82.2   53.3   29.0   12.4    5.3    2.3    43
     2MW Michigan       91.3   60.9   31.2   11.7    5.0    2.1    47
     3S  Syracuse       83.6   48.4   25.2   10.5    4.7    1.8    55
     5S  VCU            73.0   42.5   16.8    8.9    4.1    1.6    62
     4S  UCLA           73.4   39.7   15.0    7.6    3.3    1.3    79
     6S  Ohio St.       66.7   35.5   17.6    7.0    3.0    1.1    93
     3E  Iowa St.       73.2   41.2   18.6    7.4    3.0    1.0    96
     4W  San Diego St.  72.6   43.7   14.5    7.0    2.6    1.0    97
     9S  Pittsburgh     71.5   23.0   11.9    5.9    2.5    0.9    108
    11MW Tennessee      40.9   20.8   11.9    4.5    2.0    0.9    117
     8MW Kentucky       64.9   23.1    8.9    4.4    1.8    0.7    139
     7E  Connecticut    63.2   25.7   13.7    5.3    2.0    0.7    145
     6E  North Carolina 59.4   32.0   13.6    5.1    1.9    0.6    157
     5E  Cincinnati     56.3   26.8    9.9    4.6    1.8    0.6    162
     8W  Gonzaga        50.6   14.7    8.4    4.1    1.6    0.6    163
     9W  Oklahoma St.   49.4   14.1    8.0    3.9    1.4    0.6    178
     7S  New Mexico     56.9   24.0   11.1    3.8    1.4    0.5    222
     5W  Oklahoma       63.3   32.3    9.3    4.0    1.3    0.4    223
     7W  Oregon         60.0   27.2   11.8    3.9    1.3    0.4    233
     6W  Baylor         58.9   24.0   11.2    3.7    1.2    0.4    253
    12E  Harvard        43.7   18.3    5.8    2.4    0.8    0.2    438
    11MW Iowa           26.2   11.3    5.6    1.7    0.6    0.2    451
     5MW Saint Louis    57.1   14.4    4.3    1.7    0.5    0.2    638
     7MW Texas          52.3   20.2    7.2    1.8    0.5    0.1    688
    10S  Stanford       43.1   15.5    6.2    1.8    0.6    0.1    690
    11E  Providence     40.6   18.1    6.2    1.8    0.5    0.1    729
    10MW Arizona St.    47.7   17.5    5.9    1.4    0.4    0.1    1015
     9E  G. Washington  50.0   11.1    4.0    1.4    0.4    0.09   1062
     8E  Memphis        50.0   11.1    4.0    1.4    0.4    0.09   1070
    11W  Nebraska       41.1   13.7    5.2    1.4    0.3    0.09   1111
    10W  BYU            40.0   14.5    5.0    1.3    0.3    0.08   1255
    10E  Saint Joseph's 36.8   10.8    4.4    1.2    0.3    0.08   1325
    11S  Dayton         33.3   12.5    4.2    1.1    0.3    0.07   1494
     9MW Kansas St.     35.1    8.3    2.2    0.8    0.2    0.06   1704
     6MW Massachusetts  33.0   10.6    3.9    0.8    0.2    0.05   1834
    12MW Xavier         27.2    6.2    1.7    0.6    0.2    0.05   2169
    12W  N. Dakota St.  36.7   14.0    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.04   2259
    12S  S.F. Austin    27.0    9.5    2.0    0.6    0.1    0.03   3397
     8S  Colorado       28.5    4.8    1.5    0.4    0.1    0.02   5169
    13S  Tulsa          26.6    8.3    1.6    0.43   0.1    0.02   5361
    13W  New Mexico St. 27.4   10.1    1.7    0.4    0.09   0.02   5845
    14E  N.C. Central   26.8    8.6    2.1    0.4    0.09   0.01   6848
    13MW Manhattan      12.7    5.1    1.1    0.3    0.06   0.01   7639
    12MW N.C. State     15.7    2.8    0.6    0.2    0.04   0.008  12948
    15W  American       17.8    5.1    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.004  26625
    14MW Mercer         15.4    3.8    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.003  35657
    13E  Delaware       15.7    3.5    0.5    0.1    0.015  0.002  53891
    14S  Western Mich.  16.4    3.6    0.7    0.09   0.01   0.001  67027
    14W  La.-Lafayette  13.0    3.2    0.6    0.08   0.01   0.001  78951
    15S  E. Kentucky    11.8    2.4    0.4    0.05   0.006  0.0006 162840
    15E  Milwaukee       7.7    1.2    0.2    0.02   0.001  <.0001 992385
    16W  Weber St.       4.2    0.5    0.07   0.008  0.0006 <.0001 2104239
    15MW Wofford         8.7    1.4    0.14   0.008  0.0006 <.0001 2248165
    16MW Cal Poly        3.3    0.4    0.04   0.004  0.0003 <.0001 4225592
    16S  Albany          2.3    0.3    0.04   0.004  0.0003 <.0001 5124856
    16S  Mt. St. Mary's  2.0    0.2    0.03   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 8766968
    16E  Coastal Car.    3.3    0.4    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20811710
    16MW Texas Southern  1.3    0.1    0.006  0.0004 <.0001 <.0001 106501028
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1E  Virginia       96.7   77.4   52.9   35.4   21.2   11.5    9
     2E  Villanova      92.3   62.3   41.3   21.0   10.8    5.0    20
     4E  Michigan St.   84.3   51.4   22.9   12.5    5.9    2.4    41
     3E  Iowa St.       73.2   41.2   18.6    7.4    3.0    1.0    96
     7E  Connecticut    63.2   25.7   13.7    5.3    2.0    0.7    145
     6E  North Carolina 59.4   32.0   13.6    5.1    1.9    0.6    157
     5E  Cincinnati     56.3   26.8    9.9    4.6    1.8    0.6    162
    12E  Harvard        43.7   18.3    5.8    2.4    0.8    0.2    438
    11E  Providence     40.6   18.1    6.2    1.8    0.5    0.1    729
     9E  G. Washington  50.0   11.1    4.0    1.4    0.4    0.09   1062
     8E  Memphis        50.0   11.1    4.0    1.4    0.4    0.09   1070
    10E  Saint Joseph's 36.8   10.8    4.4    1.2    0.3    0.08   1325
    14E  N.C. Central   26.8    8.6    2.1    0.4    0.09   0.01   6848
    13E  Delaware       15.7    3.5    0.5    0.1    0.015  0.002  53891
    15E  Milwaukee       7.7    1.2    0.2    0.02   0.001  <.0001 992385
    16E  Coastal Car.    3.3    0.4    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20811710
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1S  Florida        95.7   71.6   51.2   35.7   22.6   12.9    8
     2S  Kansas         88.2   58.1   34.5   16.1    8.0    3.5    29
     3S  Syracuse       83.6   48.4   25.2   10.5    4.7    1.8    55
     5S  VCU            73.0   42.5   16.8    8.9    4.1    1.6    62
     4S  UCLA           73.4   39.7   15.0    7.6    3.3    1.3    79
     6S  Ohio St.       66.7   35.5   17.6    7.0    3.0    1.1    93
     9S  Pittsburgh     71.5   23.0   11.9    5.9    2.5    0.9    108
     7S  New Mexico     56.9   24.0   11.1    3.8    1.4    0.5    222
    10S  Stanford       43.1   15.5    6.2    1.8    0.6    0.1    690
    11S  Dayton         33.3   12.5    4.2    1.1    0.3    0.07   1494
    12S  S.F. Austin    27.0    9.5    2.0    0.6    0.1    0.03   3397
     8S  Colorado       28.5    4.8    1.5    0.4    0.1    0.02   5169
    13S  Tulsa          26.6    8.3    1.6    0.43   0.1    0.02   5361
    14S  Western Mich.  16.4    3.6    0.7    0.09   0.01   0.001  67027
    15S  E. Kentucky    11.8    2.4    0.4    0.05   0.006  0.0006 162840
    16S  Albany          2.3    0.3    0.04   0.004  0.0003 <.0001 5124856
    16S  Mt. St. Mary's  2.0    0.2    0.03   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 8766968
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     4MW Louisville     87.3   71.5   44.3   31.5   19.7   12.3    8
     1MW Wichita St.    95.4   68.1   36.8   24.4   13.9    8.0    13
     3MW Duke           84.6   53.5   33.2   14.1    6.8    3.2    31
     2MW Michigan       91.3   60.9   31.2   11.7    5.0    2.1    47
    11MW Tennessee      40.9   20.8   11.9    4.5    2.0    0.9    117
     8MW Kentucky       64.9   23.1    8.9    4.4    1.8    0.7    139
    11MW Iowa           26.2   11.3    5.6    1.7    0.6    0.2    451
     5MW Saint Louis    57.1   14.4    4.3    1.7    0.5    0.2    638
     7MW Texas          52.3   20.2    7.2    1.8    0.5    0.1    688
    10MW Arizona St.    47.7   17.5    5.9    1.4    0.4    0.1    1015
     9MW Kansas St.     35.1    8.3    2.2    0.8    0.2    0.06   1704
     6MW Massachusetts  33.0   10.6    3.9    0.8    0.2    0.05   1834
    12MW Xavier         27.2    6.2    1.7    0.6    0.2    0.05   2169
    13MW Manhattan      12.7    5.1    1.1    0.3    0.06   0.01   7639
    12MW N.C. State     15.7    2.8    0.6    0.2    0.04   0.008  12948
    14MW Mercer         15.4    3.8    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.003  35657
    15MW Wofford         8.7    1.4    0.14   0.008  0.0006 <.0001 2248165
    16MW Cal Poly        3.3    0.4    0.04   0.004  0.0003 <.0001 4225592
    16MW Texas Southern  1.3    0.1    0.006  0.0004 <.0001 <.0001 106501028
    
    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     1W  Arizona        95.8   70.8   55.5   40.2   24.9   15.9    6
     3W  Creighton      87.0   59.1   36.1   16.6    7.6    3.6    27
     2W  Wisconsin      82.2   53.3   29.0   12.4    5.3    2.3    43
     4W  San Diego St.  72.6   43.7   14.5    7.0    2.6    1.0    97
     8W  Gonzaga        50.6   14.7    8.4    4.1    1.6    0.6    163
     9W  Oklahoma St.   49.4   14.1    8.0    3.9    1.4    0.6    178
     5W  Oklahoma       63.3   32.3    9.3    4.0    1.3    0.4    223
     7W  Oregon         60.0   27.2   11.8    3.9    1.3    0.4    233
     6W  Baylor         58.9   24.0   11.2    3.7    1.2    0.4    253
    11W  Nebraska       41.1   13.7    5.2    1.4    0.3    0.09   1111
    10W  BYU            40.0   14.5    5.0    1.3    0.3    0.08   1255
    12W  N. Dakota St.  36.7   14.0    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.04   2259
    13W  New Mexico St. 27.4   10.1    1.7    0.4    0.09   0.02   5845
    15W  American       17.8    5.1    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.004  26625
    14W  La.-Lafayette  13.0    3.2    0.6    0.08   0.01   0.001  78951
    16W  Weber St.       4.2    0.5    0.07   0.008  0.0006 <.0001 2104239