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    2013 NCAA tournament log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 18, 2013


    What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. For the noobs, here’s the deal:

    - The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

    - This does not represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. I don’t believe Florida has the best chance to win the tournament or that Pitt has the eighth-best chance, for instance.

    - Don’t interpret these numbers as saying Ken Pomeroy’s computer is predicting Florida will win the tournament. It’s saying there’s a 79% chance they won’t.

    - If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Even Pitt doesn’t suffer much as an eight-seed.

    Seed Team           Rd32  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…
     3S  Florida        96.4   81.5   64.3   48.0   33.0   21.0    5
     1MW Louisville     98.7   79.9   65.3   47.7   33.0   20.2    5
     1E  Indiana        97.1   82.1   62.1   49.1   28.0   16.2    6
     1W  Gonzaga        96.1   61.1   42.5   27.9   14.7    7.5    13
     2W  Ohio St.       89.8   66.6   46.2   24.4   11.6    5.3    19
     2MW Duke           93.5   63.9   40.8   18.4    9.7    4.4    23
     1S  Kansas         95.1   69.1   42.9   18.1    9.3    4.2    24
     8W  Pitt           72.5   32.0   20.0   11.7    5.3    2.3    43
     5W  Wisconsin      70.7   51.1   22.7   12.8    5.5    2.3    44
     3MW Michigan St.   80.0   54.2   27.8   11.2    5.3    2.1    47
     4S  Michigan       86.6   57.1   29.6   11.1    5.1    2.1    49
     2E  Miami FL       87.5   59.8   40.4   15.5    5.6    2.0    49
     4E  Syracuse       90.7   63.1   23.1   14.3    5.4    2.0    49
     2S  Georgetown     89.6   60.7   20.0   10.2    4.6    1.8    55
     3W  New Mexico     83.3   47.7   20.6    7.7    2.6    0.8    123
     4MW St. Louis      78.0   44.5   12.3    5.3    2.0    0.6    155
     7MW Creighton      63.8   25.1   12.7    4.2    1.6    0.5    188
     3E  Marquette      65.8   42.4   20.6    6.3    1.8    0.5    202
     6W  Arizona        62.8   33.4   13.7    4.8    1.5    0.4    225
     5S  VCU            66.1   29.4   12.1    3.5    1.3    0.4    262
     5MW Oklahoma St.   61.6   33.0    8.4    3.4    1.2    0.4    275
     9MW Missouri       53.0   11.1    5.9    2.4    0.9    0.3    365
    11S  Minnesota      60.7   12.1    5.6    2.2    0.8    0.2    445
     7S  San Diego St.  60.7   24.8    5.7    2.1    0.7    0.2    523
     8S  North Carolina 57.8   19.0    8.0    2.0    0.7    0.2    561
     8MW Colorado St.   47.0    9.0    4.5    1.7    0.6    0.2    599
     5E  UNLV           61.6   23.8    5.8    2.7    0.7    0.2    618
     8E  N.C. State     64.9   13.0    5.5    2.6    0.6    0.2    631
     7W  Notre Dame     52.5   16.7    7.7    2.3    0.6    0.2    651
     4W  Kansas St.     59.1   21.7    5.8    2.2    0.6    0.1    702
    11MW St. Mary's     31.2   13.3    5.0    1.5    0.5    0.1    708
     7E  Illinois       52.6   20.1   10.2    2.5    0.6    0.1    809
    10W  Iowa St.       47.5   14.2    6.2    1.7    0.4    0.1    1001
    12W  Ole Miss       29.3   15.3    3.9    1.4    0.4    0.08   1180
     6MW Memphis        45.0   16.4    5.2    1.2    0.4    0.08   1215
    10E  Colorado       47.4   17.1    8.2    1.9    0.4    0.08   1257
     6E  Butler         54.3   23.2    8.5    1.8    0.4    0.07   1488
    11MW Middle Tenn.   23.7    9.1    3.1    0.8    0.2    0.06   1680
     9W  Wichita St.    27.5    6.6    2.7    1.0    0.2    0.06   1712
    10MW Cincinnati     36.2   10.1    3.8    0.9    0.2    0.05   1917
    11W  Belmont        37.2   15.4    4.6    1.1    0.2    0.05   1950
    12MW Oregon         38.4   16.3    3.0    0.9    0.2    0.05   1990
     9S  Villanova      42.2   11.3    4.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2155
     6S  UCLA           39.3    5.7    2.1    0.6    0.2    0.04   2825
    14E  Davidson       34.2   16.7    5.6    1.1    0.2    0.03   3018
    11E  Bucknell       45.7   17.7    5.8    1.1    0.2    0.03   3214
    10S  Oklahoma       39.3   12.5    2.1    0.6    0.1    0.03   3433
    12S  Akron          33.9   10.3    2.8    0.5    0.1    0.02   4420
    12E  California     38.4   11.2    2.0    0.7    0.1    0.02   4859
    13W  Boise St.      23.0    7.0    1.5    0.5    0.1    0.02   5011
     9E  Temple         35.1    4.5    1.3    0.4    0.07   0.01   9676
    13W  La Salle       17.9    4.9    0.9    0.3    0.05   0.009  11332
    14MW Valparaiso     20.0    6.9    1.5    0.2    0.05   0.007  13688
    13MW New Mexico St. 22.0    6.1    0.6    0.1    0.02   0.002  43849
    13S  S. Dakota St.  13.4    3.2    0.5    0.05   0.007  0.0007 147873
    15W  Iona           10.2    2.5    0.5    0.06   0.007  0.0007 149621
    14W  Harvard        16.7    3.6    0.5    0.06   0.006  0.0005 185251
    15E  Pacific        12.5    3.0    0.7    0.07   0.005  0.0004 227653
    15S  Fla Gulf Coast 10.4    2.1    0.1    0.02   0.002  0.0001 827389
    13E  Montana         9.3    1.8    0.1    0.02   0.001  <.0001 1226993
    14S  Northwestern St 3.6    0.6    0.08   0.009  0.0009 <.0001 1624189
    15MW Albany          6.5    0.9    0.1    0.007  0.0005 <.0001 2970664
    16S  W. Kentucky     4.9    0.6    0.05   0.002  0.0002 <.0001 14116410
    16W  Southern        3.9    0.3    0.03   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 18436877
    16E  James Madison   1.5    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 20050035
    16E  LIU Brooklyn    1.4    0.2    0.02   0.002  0.0001 <.0001 21000589
    16MW N.C. A&T        0.9    0.05   0.004  0.0002 <.0001 <.0001 577586835
    16MW Liberty         0.5    0.02   0.001  <.0001 <.0001 <.0001 4164692791