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    2012 Freshman projections

    by Drew Cannon on Monday, June 18, 2012


    [Note: Drew Cannon has been working on projecting freshman performance using a combination of stats and some subjective measures. You know Drew from his work at Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider. He’ll be posting occasionally throughout the summer, and maybe longer. Please note the bylines going forward. - Ken]

    I’ve gone and made advanced stats projections for the ESPNU Top 100 freshmen for next season. All the info that went in is player-specific rather than team-specific, so Mo Watson’s numbers aren’t adjusted for the easier schedule he’ll face in the America East conference, Jordan Price’s numbers don’t reflect the larger load of the offense he’ll have to take since he’s at Auburn, and Josh Scott’s rebounding numbers aren’t affected by the fact that he’ll be fighting Andre Roberson on the glass.

    Right now, these projections aren’t particularly complicated. I don’t try to figure out minutes, for example. And there aren’t too many inputs, either – it’s mostly very basic information you can find anywhere along with a couple secret sauce ingredients from running in recruiting circles for the past few years. The goal is to make them considerably better each year. The Nike Elite Youth Basketball League kept full statistics for last year’s league, and those will quadruple the effectiveness of these projections next year for about half the Top 100. This summer, I’m tracking a bunch of guys skill-by-skill, and those numbers will dramatically improve the projections for the statless half of the Class of 2014.

    That said, they’re pretty good. Better than I expected, at least. They say Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel will probably block the most shots, and they say N.C. State’s Tyler Lewis will probably get the most assists. Plenty of recruiting guys would be on board with that, and most of these numbers at least look ballpark accurate. But there are also some issues. It’s tough for the current system to figure out shooting, for example – nobody’s currently projected above 74 percent on free throws.

    The biggest issue is selection bias. Three or four of these guys will never make it to campus (the most likely of whom, Torian Graham, is not currently committed to a college). Ten or so more will redshirt, whether by injury or choice or eligibility issues. There’s a good chance #100 Savon Goodman will be theoretically knocked out of the Top 100 by a reclassified 2013, much like Andre Dawkins, Greg Echenique, Jarnell Stokes, Andre Drummond, or Sim Bhullar. (2013 PG Stevie Clark was briefly discussing the possibility before deciding to remain in his original class, and 2012 Maryland recruit Damonte Dodd would be ranked around #85 were the rankings not finalized.) And another eight or so will play so little that they won’t be listed on the Kenpom team pages.

    The 2011s who met one of those fates: #12 Khem Birch, #26 Jabari Brown, #27 Wayne Blackshear, #29 Michael Gbinije, #32 JaKarr Sampson, #35 Marshall Plumlee, #41 Alex Murphy, #44 Michael Chandler, #49 Ben McLemore, #50 Jahii Carson, #53 LaQuinton Ross, #57 Zach Price, #58 Malcolm Gilbert, #65 Trevor Cooney, #67 Chris Jones, #71 Antwan Space, #72 Aaron Thomas, #75 Carlton Brundidge, #77 Norvel Pelle, #82 Sim Bhullar, #83 Joseph Uchebo, #90 Jarrod Uthoff, #94 Sidiki Johnson, #96 Kevin Ware, and #98 D.J. Gardner.

    That all means that the projections are cobbled together from only the best 80 seasons of 100. So everybody’s probably overrated, to some degree. Right now, these projections are mostly just standards to measure players against. Someone outperforming these numbers should be considered overperforming, even though largely everyone will underperform fans’ expectations.

    Stats here are the standard advanced variety found on the team pages. B/S% is block and steal percentage. 3PA% is the percentage of field goal attempts taken from three-point range.

                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    D Pollard, Alabama        99   19   8/13  11  19  4/2   3.7   35 62% 49% 25%  25%
    G Jerrett, Arizona       101   20  12/17   8  18  6/2   4.5   47 58% 50% 22%   9%
    K Tarczewski, Arizona    101   21  11/18   6  20  8/2   4.7   53 57% 52% 12%   3%
    B Ashley, Arizona        103   21  11/16   8  18  4/2   4.3   45 64% 50% 25%  12%
    G York, Arizona           97   19   5/10  14  19  2/2   3.5   28 64% 45% 29%  42%
    S Johnson, Auburn         96   20   6/13  10  20  1/2   3.4   40 66% 45% 24%  31%
    J Price, Auburn           98   19   4/11  13  19  1/2   3.7   28 67% 47% 31%  44%
    I Austin, Baylor         101   21  11/18   5  19  8/2   4.7   53 56% 54% 11%   3%
    R Gathers, Baylor        106   20  10/17   7  17  5/2   4.6   47 66% 50% 26%  15%
    LJ Rose, Baylor           93   20   2/8   23  25  1/2   3.7   33 68% 44% 29%  38%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    M Watson, Boston U.       93   23   2/8   24  23  0/3   2.8   44 73% 37% 24%  42%
    K Dunham, Butler          96   19   4/11  12  19  1/2   3.7   30 66% 47% 30%  45%
    J Blossomgame, Clemson    94   17   7/13   9  21  3/2   4.0   38 59% 48% 25%  29%
    J Scott, Colorado        101   19  11/17   5  19  7/1   5.4   51 59% 51% 15%   7%
    X Johnson, Colorado       98   18   7/13  10  20  2/2   3.8   34 66% 48% 26%  30%
    O Calhoun, Connecticut   101   20   4/11  13  18  2/2   3.4   30 68% 48% 32%  42%
    A Jefferson, Duke        102   20  11/16   8  19  4/2   4.5   43 64% 50% 25%  12%
    R Sulaimon, Duke         106   23   4/11  15  17  1/2   2.8   34 71% 49% 34%  41%
    B Ogbueze, Florida        95   21   3/8   24  25  1/2   3.5   33 70% 45% 30%  37%
    M Brandon, Florida St.    98   19   4/11  13  19  2/2   3.7   28 67% 47% 31%  44%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    R Upshaw, Fresno St.      94   16  12/16   5  22  9/1   5.9   44 50% 51% 14%   3%
    D Smith-Rivera, G'town   100   20   4/10  14  19  1/2   3.2   28 70% 45% 31%  44%
    R Carter, Georgia Tech   100   18  12/16   8  19  6/1   4.8   41 59% 49% 24%  10%
    M Hunt, Georgia Tech     101   19   6/14   9  17  2/2   3.7   40 69% 48% 26%  32%
    C Knowles, Houston       100   18  10/16   6  19  5/2   5.0   40 62% 50% 25%  13%
    D House, Houston         101   20   8/13  12  19  3/2   3.4   37 63% 49% 25%  25%
    H Mosquera-Perea, Indiana 98   17  11/16   7  20  5/1   5.0   41 57% 49% 25%  12%
    J Hollowell, Indiana      99   19   7/14  10  19  3/2   3.8   34 66% 49% 26%  28%
    Y Ferrell, Indiana       105   23   3/8   25  22  1/3   3.0   41 74% 47% 34%  38%
    A Woodbury, Iowa          95   17  11/17   4  21  8/1   5.8   45 55% 52% 14%   5%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    M Gesell, Iowa            95   21   2/9   23  23  1/2   3.4   40 72% 43% 27%  41%
    G Niang, Iowa St.        105   19  10/16   7  17  4/2   4.7   46 66% 49% 26%  16%
    P Ellis, Kansas          102   19  11/16   7  19  4/2   4.7   42 64% 49% 25%  13%
    A White, Kansas           98   18   8/13  11  20  4/2   3.8   33 62% 48% 25%  26%
    W Cauley, Kentucky        95   17  12/16   5  22  9/1   5.8   45 51% 51% 13%   2%
    N Noel, Kentucky         116   22  12/21   7  16 10/2   3.6   54 58% 63% 13%   3%
    A Poythress, Kentucky    104   21  11/16   8  18  4/2   4.3   46 64% 50% 25%  11%
    A Goodwin, Kentucky      103   21   5/10  15  18  2/2   3.1   32 65% 48% 32%  39%
    M Harrell, Louisville     98   18  10/16   6  20  4/2   4.7   45 62% 49% 26%  15%
    T Rozier, Louisville      95   21   2/9   23  23  1/2   3.4   40 72% 43% 27%  41%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    S Taylor, Marquette       97   18   7/13   9  20  2/2   3.8   36 65% 48% 26%  30%
    S Cleare, Maryland        99   19  11/16   6  21  7/2   5.3   47 57% 50% 15%   4%
    J Layman, Maryland        97   18   7/14   9  20  2/2   4.1   34 64% 50% 26%  30%
    S Goodwin, Memphis       102   19  11/16   7  19  4/2   4.6   42 64% 49% 25%  12%
    M Johnson, Miami FL       99   20   3/11  12  17  1/2   3.4   37 70% 45% 29%  48%
    M McGary, Michigan       101   19  11/17   7  19  5/2   4.7   43 63% 50% 25%  12%
    G Robinson, Michigan     104   22   7/13  12  18  2/2   3.2   37 69% 49% 28%  27%
    N Stauskas, Michigan      97   18   7/13   9  20  2/2   3.8   35 65% 48% 26%  30%
    M Costello, Michigan St.  98   18  10/16   6  20  4/2   4.9   44 61% 50% 26%  15%
    K Kaminski, Michigan St.  99   18  10/16   6  20  4/2   4.8   44 62% 49% 26%  15%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    D Valentine, Michigan St. 99   19   6/14   8  18  1/2   3.5   46 67% 47% 25%  34%
    G Harris, Michigan St.   108   23   4/11  14  15  2/2   2.9   40 72% 50% 33%  44%
    J James, North Carolina   96   17  12/16   6  22  8/1   5.7   44 51% 50% 15%   3%
    B Johnson, N. Carolina   101   19  11/16   7  19  5/2   4.8   42 63% 50% 25%  13%
    JP Tokoto, North Carolina 98   19   7/13  10  20  2/2   3.7   34 66% 47% 26%  30%
    M Paige, North Carolina  103   23   3/9   24  22  1/2   3.2   42 73% 48% 33%  38%
    TJ Warren, N.C. St.      101   20   7/14  10  19  2/2   3.7   35 67% 49% 26%  28%
    R Purvis, N.C. St.       104   22   4/10  15  18  1/2   3.0   32 70% 48% 34%  42%
    T Lewis, N.C. St.         98   22   3/8   25  25  0/3   3.2   33 71% 44% 31%  37%
    C Biedschied, Notre Dame  97   18   8/13  10  20  3/2   3.9   33 61% 47% 25%  27%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    M Smart, Oklahoma St.    108   23   4/12  14  15  2/2   2.9   40 72% 50% 33%  44%
    D Artis, Oregon           97   21   2/9   23  23  1/2   3.4   39 72% 44% 29%  40%
    S Adams, Pittsburgh       97   20  12/17   6  20  9/1   5.1   52 51% 51% 10%   0%
    J Robinson, Pittsburgh    98   21   2/9   22  22  1/2   3.7   39 70% 47% 30%  39%
    R Ledo, Providence       101   21   4/11  13  18  2/2   3.4   32 68% 49% 32%  42%
    K Dunn, Providence        96   21   4/8   24  24  2/2   3.5   35 65% 47% 30%  33%
    AJ Hammons, Purdue        94   15  11/16   4  23  8/1   6.0   47 49% 53% 16%   4%
    R Davis, Purdue           95   19   3/11  12  19  1/2   3.6   32 66% 46% 30%  45%
    R Johnson, Purdue         89   22   2/8   23  26  0/3   3.1   38 70% 39% 25%  39%
    W Shepard, San Diego St. 101   18  10/16   7  19  4/2   4.8   40 64% 49% 26%  14%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    C Obekpa, St. John's      95   17  12/15   6  23  8/1   5.5   46 51% 49% 15%   4%
    G Verhoeven, Stanford     95   17  10/16   4  23  6/2   5.6   49 55% 51% 17%   7%
    R Allen, Stanford         97   18   7/14   9  20  2/2   4.1   34 64% 50% 26%  30%
    D Coleman, Syracuse      100   21  11/16   7  21  7/2   4.9   50 58% 50% 15%   3%
    J Grant, Syracuse        102   19  11/16   8  19  4/2   4.6   41 64% 49% 26%  13%
    C Ridley, Texas          101   21  11/16   7  20  7/2   4.7   52 58% 51% 14%   3%
    P Ibeh, Texas             96   17  11/16   4  22  7/1   5.9   45 55% 52% 16%   6%
    C Lammert, Texas          97   17  10/17   4  20  4/2   5.2   46 60% 53% 27%  16%
    J Felix, Texas            93   21   2/8   24  25  0/3   3.2   34 70% 41% 28%  38%
    A Caruso, Texas A&M       94   19   3/11  11  20  0/2   3.5   35 66% 46% 30%  46%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    J Reese, Texas A&M        92   20   2/8   23  25  0/2   3.5   34 69% 43% 28%  38%
    T Parker, UCLA           102   20  11/16   8  19  4/2   4.6   43 64% 50% 25%  12%
    K Anderson, UCLA         104   22   8/15  11  17  3/2   3.1   41 67% 51% 25%  26%
    S Muhammad, UCLA         116   24   7/16  11  14  4/2   2.3   48 71% 56% 28%  29%
    J Adams, UCLA            101   20   7/13  11  19  2/2   3.5   34 68% 48% 27%  28%
    A Bennett, UNLV          105   22  11/17   8  18  4/2   4.0   48 65% 51% 25%  11%
    S Goodman, UNLV           94   18   7/13   9  21  2/2   3.7   40 60% 47% 24%  29%
    K Reinhardt, UNLV        100   20   4/10  14  18  1/2   3.5   28 68% 47% 32%  43%
    J Loveridge, Utah         95   19   6/13   9  20  1/2   3.7   40 65% 47% 26%  31%
    D Ochefu, Villanova       97   18  11/16   5  22  7/2   5.6   45 56% 50% 16%   5%
    
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    R Arcidiacono, Villanova  94   20   3/9   23  25  1/2   3.7   33 68% 46% 30%  37%
    M Tobey, Virginia         95   17  11/16   4  22  7/1   5.8   47 55% 52% 17%   7%
    E Nolte, Virginia        102   19   7/14   9  17  3/2   3.9   39 68% 50% 26%  31%
    J Anderson, Virginia     103   20   7/14  10  17  3/2   3.6   39 69% 48% 26%  31%
    J Burgess, VCU            96   19   7/13   9  20  1/2   3.5   39 65% 46% 25%  31%
    C Miller-McIntyre, Wake   90   20   2/8   22  25  0/2   3.6   35 68% 43% 27%  39%
    E Macon, West Virginia   100   18  12/16   8  20  6/1   4.9   40 58% 49% 24%  11%
    F Van Vleet, Wichita St.  94   22   2/8   23  23  0/3   3.2   41 72% 41% 26%  41%
    S Dekker, Wisconsin      105   21   7/15  10  16  3/2   3.4   44 69% 50% 26%  29%
    T Graham, (Uncommitted)   94   18   4/10  13  20  2/2   3.5   32 62% 45% 28%  43%